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2016 Presidential Election


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#41
NittanyLion

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View Postweathergeek87, on 03 June 2015 - 06:01 PM, said:

I hear that Bernie Sanders is really gaining a lot of momentum, going from 3% to 15% in 5 days time.

While true, I think he's capturing Elizabeth Warren's supporters, he has zero shot in the general.

If the GOP clowns think Obama is Socialist, imagine what they'll think about an ACTUAL self-identified Socialist.
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#42
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View PostNittanyLion, on 03 June 2015 - 06:18 PM, said:

While true, I think he's capturing Elizabeth Warren's supporters, he has zero shot in the general.

If the GOP clowns think Obama is Socialist, imagine what they'll think about an ACTUAL self-identified Socialist.

100% right. He has no shot, as do the other Democrat "contenders". HC has this wrapped up. The danger is that her first test is going to be in the general election, where there is no margin for error to recover from the eventual misstep. she needs to hope its a small misstep, because a big one could cost her the election.

Having said that, I think many in the country are so fixated on having a woman president, many will vote for her simply because she is a woman. Obama carried 92% of the black vote (92%!) because of a similar reason. I do not think HC could carry that much of the woman vote, but it will be significant.

#43
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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 04 June 2015 - 03:11 PM, said:

100% right. He has no shot, as do the other Democrat "contenders". HC has this wrapped up. The danger is that her first test is going to be in the general election, where there is no margin for error to recover from the eventual misstep. she needs to hope its a small misstep, because a big one could cost her the election.

Having said that, I think many in the country are so fixated on having a woman president, many will vote for her simply because she is a woman. Obama carried 92% of the black vote (92%!) because of a similar reason. I do not think HC could carry that much of the woman vote, but it will be significant.

She has it wrapped up about as well as in 2008. :) There is no doubt she is the leading Democratic contender but there is a long way to go. Recent polls show most think she is dishonest. Even though 60% of Democrats still say they will vote for her, to this point there is little competition. All you need is another Obama (male or female) that is younger and talks a great game, and she is in trouble. I really don't think she will be the nominee. She simply has to much baggage and to many shady things involving her past, and her ability to say the wrong things won't help her either.
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#44
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View Postweatherbowl, on 04 June 2015 - 05:55 PM, said:

She has it wrapped up about as well as in 2008. :) There is no doubt she is the leading Democratic contender but there is a long way to go. Recent polls show most think she is dishonest. Even though 60% of Democrats still say they will vote for her, to this point there is little competition. All you need is another Obama (male or female) that is younger and talks a great game, and she is in trouble. I really don't think she will be the nominee. She simply has to much baggage and to many shady things involving her past, and her ability to say the wrong things won't help her either.

I dont disagree with that, but Obama had some steam before 2008 after his 2004 convention speech, but everyone thought 2012 or 16 was his year. There is no other candidate in the Dem party now that can give HC a race. Warren is the Dem equivalent of a tea party candidate, Sanders cant win, and I dont know enough about O'Malley. Dont think Biden will run and especially now with the death of his son, I think he will want to spend more time in Delaware with this family and grandkids. Who else is out there? I think Bloomberg could be a good candidate. Some one menitoned him being fiscally conservative and socially moderate/liberal. That could play well in both parties. Lets face it, the Democratic party is being pushed by the extreme progressive wing of their party, much like the Republican party was hijacked by the Tea Party 10 years ago. Moderates are what we need.

#45
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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 04 June 2015 - 07:17 PM, said:

I dont disagree with that, but Obama had some steam before 2008 after his 2004 convention speech, but everyone thought 2012 or 16 was his year. There is no other candidate in the Dem party now that can give HC a race. Warren is the Dem equivalent of a tea party candidate, Sanders cant win, and I dont know enough about O'Malley. Dont think Biden will run and especially now with the death of his son, I think he will want to spend more time in Delaware with this family and grandkids. Who else is out there? I think Bloomberg could be a good candidate. Some one menitoned him being fiscally conservative and socially moderate/liberal. That could play well in both parties. Lets face it, the Democratic party is being pushed by the extreme progressive wing of their party, much like the Republican party was hijacked by the Tea Party 10 years ago. Moderates are what we need.

I disagree when you say that Sanders can't win. Never say never, it's still only June and there is plenty of time to go.
He is really picking up steam and momentum. I wouldn't count him out just yet.
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#46
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View Postweathergeek87, on 04 June 2015 - 09:50 PM, said:

I disagree when you say that Sanders can't win. Never say never, it's still only June and there is plenty of time to go.
He is really picking up steam and momentum. I wouldn't count him out just yet.

I think that they're talking about the general. While I'm a Sanders supporter, even I'd admit that he'd have trouble in the general against a more moderate Republican like Jeb Bush.

On the issue of moderates, I think that Obama has been more moderate than what many would like to admit (I can humor you all and cite examples), yet that has gotten us nowhere with government gridlock. So, if we're going nowhere as is, we may as well listen to something fresh!

Pirate-If I were you, I would look into Graham (if you're a registered Republican) or Linc Chaffee (if you're a registered Dem). Both of these people, especially Chaffee, aren't bound by party ideology (though once again, Graham believes in climate change...so maybe Graham isn't bound by party ideology either).
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#47
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View Postthundersleet, on 04 June 2015 - 10:09 PM, said:

I think that they're talking about the general. While I'm a Sanders supporter, even I'd admit that he'd have trouble in the general against a more moderate Republican like Jeb Bush.

On the issue of moderates, I think that Obama has been more moderate than what many would like to admit (I can humor you all and cite examples), yet that has gotten us nowhere with government gridlock. So, if we're going nowhere as is, we may as well listen to something fresh!

Pirate-If I were you, I would look into Graham (if you're a registered Republican) or Linc Chaffee (if you're a registered Dem). Both of these people, especially Chaffee, aren't bound by party ideology (though once again, Graham believes in climate change...so maybe Graham isn't bound by party ideology either).

I am actually an independent, not registered with either party, but vote in every general election. I think the party system has been raped by special interests and is no longer useful for our system, but its the way it is now. So, although Graham or Chafee might be good candidates, they have zero chance, because they are not bound to any party ideology. So what makes them attractive, will also be their downfall. Chaffee is dead from the start, citing changing to the Metric system as one of the planks in his platform.

As for Sanders, he has momentum because he is fresh. He might be a thorn in HC's side, but that will be about it. He wont win the Dem nomination.

As for Obama being moderate, not sure I can see that one. Maybe, maybe socially moderate, but certainly not fiscally moderate.

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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 05 June 2015 - 05:59 AM, said:

I am actually an independent, not registered with either party, but vote in every general election. I think the party system has been raped by special interests and is no longer useful for our system, but its the way it is now. So, although Graham or Chafee might be good candidates, they have zero chance, because they are not bound to any party ideology. So what makes them attractive, will also be their downfall. Chaffee is dead from the start, citing changing to the Metric system as one of the planks in his platform.

As for Sanders, he has momentum because he is fresh. He might be a thorn in HC's side, but that will be about it. He wont win the Dem nomination.

As for Obama being moderate, not sure I can see that one. Maybe, maybe socially moderate, but certainly not fiscally moderate.

See, I forgot that you were independent, so I forgot that you wouldn't be able to vote in a party primary (womp womp).

With Obama, here are some examples:
National security-He supports the same Patriot Act that Bush enacted, he maintains the Bush status quo with spying, and he hasn't closed Gitmo
Other military stuff-He's hawkish like the rest of 'em, but he's just used his hawkishness in different places (notably Afghanistan and Libya).
Economics-Bank regulations seem to still be lax in a lot of ways, and income inequality continues to increase.
Health care-There is some semblance between the ACA and the Republican proposed legislation in 1993/94.

Yet, in spite of all this, many conservatives call Obama a socialist. It does make me wonder how conservatives would act if an actual self-proclaimed socialist like Sanders entered the White House. lol
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#49
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View Postthundersleet, on 05 June 2015 - 09:24 AM, said:

See, I forgot that you were independent, so I forgot that you wouldn't be able to vote in a party primary (womp womp).

With Obama, here are some examples:
National security-He supports the same Patriot Act that Bush enacted, he maintains the Bush status quo with spying, and he hasn't closed Gitmo
Other military stuff-He's hawkish like the rest of 'em, but he's just used his hawkishness in different places (notably Afghanistan and Libya).
Economics-Bank regulations seem to still be lax in a lot of ways, and income inequality continues to increase.
Health care-There is some semblance between the ACA and the Republican proposed legislation in 1993/94.

Yet, in spite of all this, many conservatives call Obama a socialist. It does make me wonder how conservatives would act if an actual self-proclaimed socialist like Sanders entered the White House. lol

I dont think Obama is a socialist, but he is not a strong leader. Take what you pointed to.

Nat Security - He may have been hawkish on Afghanistan, but has been mostly passive on ISIS, save for dropping a few bombs from drones. ISIS is just marching along with little resistance while he continues to say we are winning.
Economics - He complains about the banks and income inequality, yet did nothing about it while his party controlled the house and senate. He could have gotten anything done that he wanted, yet chose to focus on Obamacare, which will be have mild positive benefits and harsh penalties in the long run (my opinion). If the Dems were serious about income inequality/banks/etc, why did they not push for something when they had total control? To me its lack of leadership and that will be Obama's legacy.

For 2016, I still see it as a HC win, fairly easily.

#50
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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 05 June 2015 - 10:10 AM, said:

I dont think Obama is a socialist, but he is not a strong leader. Take what you pointed to.

Nat Security - He may have been hawkish on Afghanistan, but has been mostly passive on ISIS, save for dropping a few bombs from drones. ISIS is just marching along with little resistance while he continues to say we are winning.
Economics - He complains about the banks and income inequality, yet did nothing about it while his party controlled the house and senate. He could have gotten anything done that he wanted, yet chose to focus on Obamacare, which will be have mild positive benefits and harsh penalties in the long run (my opinion). If the Dems were serious about income inequality/banks/etc, why did they not push for something when they had total control? To me its lack of leadership and that will be Obama's legacy.

For 2016, I still see it as a HC win, fairly easily.

All of these are fair points. I too think that Obama is a weak leader, for the record. However, I am not fully convinced that 2016 will be an easy HC win. All it takes is for another Obama-like person, another person who talks a big game, to take the nomination away from HC. I think that there is that much discontent with her, and I think that she has that much baggage. Even if she wins the nomination, I think that she could have trouble in the general against someone with less baggage.
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#51
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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 05 June 2015 - 05:59 AM, said:

I am actually an independent, not registered with either party, but vote in every general election. I think the party system has been raped by special interests and is no longer useful for our system, but its the way it is now. So, although Graham or Chafee might be good candidates, they have zero chance, because they are not bound to any party ideology. So what makes them attractive, will also be their downfall. Chaffee is dead from the start, citing changing to the Metric system as one of the planks in his platform.

As for Sanders, he has momentum because he is fresh. He might be a thorn in HC's side, but that will be about it. He wont win the Dem nomination.

As for Obama being moderate, not sure I can see that one. Maybe, maybe socially moderate, but certainly not fiscally moderate.
I'm Independent as well, and I too dislike the party system and cannot really identify with either party as I tend to be a mix of both, as well as having a couple of views outside of both parties. Maybe I lean a bit more toward the Ds at times on certain fiscal and environmental issues. I keep going back and forth about declaring a party -- the only real advantage would be voting in primaries, which I would like to do. But I don't know. It might be good for primaries, and the country, if more independents declared, even if only temporary. I just can't bring myself to do it. I mean, what would I be -- a conservative democrat, liberal republican? None of which are really permitted to exist anymore within the current discourse.
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#52
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View Postgpsnavigator, on 05 June 2015 - 08:58 PM, said:


I'm Independent as well, and I too dislike the party system and cannot really identify with either party as I tend to be a mix of both, as well as having a couple of views outside of both parties. Maybe I lean a bit more toward the Ds at times on certain fiscal and environmental issues. I keep going back and forth about declaring a party -- the only real advantage would be voting in primaries, which I would like to do. But I don't know. It might be good for primaries, and the country, if more independents declared, even if only temporary. I just can't bring myself to do it. I mean, what would I be -- a conservative democrat, liberal republican? None of which are really permitted to exist anymore within the current discourse.

I understand your feelings because there is a lot not to like about both major parties. In fact, when I first registered, I considered registering with a third party like the Green Party or just being independent altogether. But I decided that I had to register for a major party because I wanted to have a vote in a major primary. So I registered as a Democrat, since I could identify with them more than with the Republicians.

Now the funny thing is that, if it were just HC running on the Democratic side, I would've switched my voter registration to Republican. Why? Because I want to feel like I have some semblance of influence in a major party's nomination, and if only HC ran for the Dems, then the Republican Party would be the only party to give me that semblance of influence.

I guess that I am telling this story to show that you don't have to be within the discourse of a major party in order to register for a major party. Once again, I am a bit of an oddball. If you think that you would be a liberal Republican, what would that make me? A socialist Republican? Lol
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#53
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View Postthundersleet, on 06 June 2015 - 07:17 AM, said:

I understand your feelings because there is a lot not to like about both major parties. In fact, when I first registered, I considered registering with a third party like the Green Party or just being independent altogether. But I decided that I had to register for a major party because I wanted to have a vote in a major primary. So I registered as a Democrat, since I could identify with them more than with the Republicians.

Now the funny thing is that, if it were just HC running on the Democratic side, I would've switched my voter registration to Republican. Why? Because I want to feel like I have some semblance of influence in a major party's nomination, and if only HC ran for the Dems, then the Republican Party would be the only party to give me that semblance of influence.

I guess that I am telling this story to show that you don't have to be within the discourse of a major party in order to register for a major party. Once again, I am a bit of an oddball. If you think that you would be a liberal Republican, what would that make me? A socialist Republican? Lol
Makes sense. I am thinking I might declare for this election, but will wait a while to see which candidate I wish to support -- it might end up being HIllary anyway, but if someone sensible emerges from the republicans, maybe I'll do that too. I don't think there is any limit to the number of times one can change affiliations, but I think it just needs to be done at least 30 days ahead of the primary, which I'm guessing aren't going to be until next June since there was just a round of primary elections for local politicians.

It's hard to think of being affiliated with either party, but at heart I would still be an independent. There is still a long way to go though. I am also interested in seeing where Chafee and O'Malley land too.
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#54
weathergeek87

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How do I go about declaring for a party? I am not under any party. I went to NYC board of elections website but couldn't figure out how to do it.
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#55
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View Postweathergeek87, on 07 June 2015 - 10:11 AM, said:

How do I go about declaring for a party? I am not under any party. I went to NYC board of elections website but couldn't figure out how to do it.

I'm not sure. I registered when I was 18, and the Board of Elections mailed registration (including party registration) to me.
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#56
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One thing that I do not like about the state primary system, especially here in NJ, is that by the time our primary rolls around, the presidential part of the primary is typically over. Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida and South Carolina define who the nominees are. If you are affiliated with a party in NJ, you have no say in who will be your candidate. There should be a national primary in presidential years to elect the nominees.

#57
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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 09 June 2015 - 07:46 AM, said:

One thing that I do not like about the state primary system, especially here in NJ, is that by the time our primary rolls around, the presidential part of the primary is typically over. Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida and South Carolina define who the nominees are. If you are affiliated with a party in NJ, you have no say in who will be your candidate. There should be a national primary in presidential years to elect the nominees.

I agree with you 100%.

If they can't do that, I say that the first primaries should be the ones for the states which usually have the least influence in the general. In other words, give voters in Wyoming, Texas, California, etc. the level of influence in primaries that they don't have (at least at the national level) in the general. Voters in a state like NJ are left doubly disenfranchised, because you can't determine the party nominee because the party nominee is locked up by the NJ primary, and you also can't determine the general because it's usually a Safe Dem state.
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#58
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View Postgpsnavigator, on 05 June 2015 - 08:58 PM, said:

I'm Independent as well, and I too dislike the party system and cannot really identify with either party as I tend to be a mix of both, as well as having a couple of views outside of both parties. Maybe I lean a bit more toward the Ds at times on certain fiscal and environmental issues. I keep going back and forth about declaring a party -- the only real advantage would be voting in primaries, which I would like to do. But I don't know. It might be good for primaries, and the country, if more independents declared, even if only temporary. I just can't bring myself to do it. I mean, what would I be -- a conservative democrat, liberal republican? None of which are really permitted to exist anymore within the current discourse.

Libertarian Democrat

http://en.wikipedia....tarian_Democrat
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The views expressed in this post are solely mine and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Weather Service.

#59
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View PostNittanyLion, on 11 June 2015 - 07:30 AM, said:

I can relate to some of that, although maybe not the prostitution part. Personally, I'd like to see more advocacy for the 1st amendment and personal responsibility among the democratic party, while still advocating for higher wages, environmental protections, and regulations on wall street. For obvious reasons, I would never advocate hate or threat speech, but in my view, there is way too much political correctness abound, and this has effectively squelched discussions that need to be had, especially on social issues, and is not healthy for a free society. I'm actually going to post a seperate topic about it -- see what you guys think.

Here's another interesting definition:

https://en.wikipedia...tive_liberalism

And an interesting article about Ron Paul and Democrats in New Hampshire from 2012:

http://www.politico....0112/71342.html
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#60
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Political party affiliation and an unthinking, uninformed, and blindly loyal base is part of what's wrong with our political system today. The majority of party loyalists often do not even know their party's platform and people often vote against their own interests. The polarized nature of today's politics has a real chance of destroying our democracy. What's needed is a complete and total redistricting along the lines of what California is attempting, and the removal of money from the political process (fat chance to both). The system is rigged and in a sorry state.
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