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Friday/Weekend Snowstorm Potential


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#1
weathergeek87

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Let's use this new thread to post model updates and forecasting information for this weekends potential snowstorm.
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#2
ericjcrash

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You beat me to it by literally seconds, I guess delete my topic.


EDIT: Was able to delete myself.

#3
weatherbowl

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Any coastal flooding will be aggravated by a full moon this Saturday.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#4
weathergeek87

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View Postericjcrash, on 18 January 2016 - 04:42 PM, said:

You beat me to it by literally seconds, I guess delete my topic.


EDIT: Was able to delete myself.

Eric - thanks. Just saw your topic and was about to delete mine but then I got notification you deleted yours. Lol
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#5
Baciball

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So there is much discussion about the "potential" storm this weekend. Here is the problem with doing this 5 days out, the storm is still in the Pacific and has a long way to go. While I love reading the posts about the models, trust me, 18 inches would be great, we are way, way to early to peg this on the board as a given. I have posted before, 72 hours before the event gets very interesting, 24 hours before the event is almost written in stone...
here are my percentages for any storm:
5 days out 25%
3 days out 50%
2 days out 70%
1 day out 85%
1/2 day out 90%
the day after 100%

#6
weatherbowl

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I would say the chance look better than 50/50 for an east coast storm this weekend. There really is no way of knowing how much snow, rain/snow line etc.for another few days.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#7
WrathOfPaulII

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NWS forecast says "snow likely" with 60% chance for Friday/Saturday. pretty unusual for the chances to be that high this far out, but when they are, there's a good chance it will hit us.

#8
metfan4life

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Gfs shows a blizzard with winds up to 60mph along the coast. It shows 12+ inches of snow . It is snowing from Friday through Sunday.
Winter 2019-2020
12/2/19 - 1"

#9
OrangeCountyWeather06

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At very least the main emphasis is the models are consistent showing heavy snow especially towards the coast and heavy winds. Obviously amounts are still way too premature but still nice to see nonetheless. Unfortunately for me I work early Saturday morning so that could mean issues for me lol. But correct me if I'm wrong is the Euro para the only model that shows a OTS solution?
Cornwall NY

#10
metfan4life

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^ yes

I also have to work Saturday
Winter 2019-2020
12/2/19 - 1"

#11
djny2882

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Jersey Shore not in on the action. I am very concerned with mixing!!

#12
weathergeek87

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Really wondering if Blizzard Watches will go up. It's looking like the wind will be cranking regardless of the track of this thing!
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#13
weatherbowl

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Another interesting potential could be a very slow moving storm.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#14
OrangeCountyWeather06

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View Postweatherbowl, on 18 January 2016 - 06:00 PM, said:

Another interesting potential could be a very slow moving storm.

Definitely I was just reading an article about this potential storm on Wunderground. From what I'm reading for snow lovers basically what your hoping for is the upper level energy mid week to push east causing the formation of a Low near the South. After that to sum it all you need is timing, strength and track of the storm. Also, read that with the history of El Niño this warm there have potent storms that have formed that haven't been cold enough to play in our favor. Going forward all we need is one or two mega storms from this with a colder pattern and we could be right back in business for winter.
Cornwall NY

#15
lab94

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View Postweathergeek87, on 18 January 2016 - 05:57 PM, said:

Really wondering if Blizzard Watches will go up. It's looking like the wind will be cranking regardless of the track of this thing!

http://www.pivotalwe...=120&r=ne&dpdt=
http://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/

My COCORAHS ID - NJ-MS-18

http://nycmetroweath...r/lab94/br1.jpg

Elevation 794
19-20 snowfall to date 19.1"
18-19 snowfall 37.3 "
17-18 snowfall- 79.3"
15-16 snowfall - 34.2".........16-17 snowfall- 48.7"
13-14 snowfall - 65.6".........14-15 snowfall - 63.4"
11-12 snowfall - 22.8".........12-13 snowfall - 52.1
09-10 Snowfall- 75.30" .....10-11 snowfall - 62.00"
07-08 snowfall- 39.40".. . ...08-09 snowfall- 42.70"

Snowfall Average 53.22"

#16
canisteerrd

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My latest NWS forecast, they seem pretty confident.
40% chance snow showers Wed. night
30% chance snow Friday
Friday night snow likely 70% chance
Saturday, snow 90% chance
No mention of accumulations.
Cold as hell out right now. Down to 12 already
Elev: 1217'

2012-2013 total snow: 67.0"
2013- 2014 total snow: 67.0"
2014-2015 total snow: 71.1"
2015-2016 total snow: 31"
2016-2017 total snow 61"
2017-2018 total snow: 84"
2018-2019 total snow: 40"
2019-2020 total snow: 25"
Lowest temp this season: +4

#17
weathergeek87

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Upton seeming to be very confident at a high impact snowstorm for our area Fri Night - Saturday Night
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#18
weatherbowl

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I would think that an intensifying storm to our south-southwest, for example near Delaware, could create mixing problems near the coast. That could bring winds more east rather than northeast and combine that with the water temperatures being warmer than normal and mixing may occur. These little things can make a big difference which is why I don't pay to much attention to snow totals at this point.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#19
robbbs

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JB and GB highly confident of an extreme, possibly historic level blizzard for the I-95 corridor and/or vicinity. Confidence is high due to tremendous model consistency. The only open issues are forecasting the peripherals and bull's eye of the heaviest snows. They see the absolute worst of the storm in a wide arc from eastern PA to all of northern NJ, but a crippling level storm for all from DC to Boston.
rockburnweather.com
West Milford NJ

#20
metfan4life

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Here are the analogs from CIPS for this upcoming storm. They were all big blizzards : 1983, Blizzard of 1996, Feb 2010,Dec 2010
Winter 2019-2020
12/2/19 - 1"





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