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August weather


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#1
Blizzard78

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Will Tropical Storm Emily have any effect on our weather this week?

#2
OrangeCountyWeather06

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View PostBlizzard78, on 31 July 2017 - 08:17 AM, said:

Will Tropical Storm Emily have any effect on our weather this week?

From what I've been hearing it will stay off the coast of NC and not expected to make any US landfall after exiting Florida.
Cornwall NY

#3
carribeanpirate

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View PostOrangeCountyWeather06, on 31 July 2017 - 06:39 PM, said:

From what I've been hearing it will stay off the coast of NC and not expected to make any US landfall after exiting Florida.

If that's the forecast, it means rain all weekend.....

#4
TatamyPA

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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 31 July 2017 - 07:20 PM, said:

If that's the forecast, it means rain all weekend.....

You're safe CP - it's being swept out to sea - no worries on this one...

Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017

After an earlier convective hiatus, recent satellite, radar, and
lightning data indicate that thunderstorm activity has redeveloped
within 20 nmi of the low-level center. Although the small
circulation is somewhat elongated northeast-to-southwest, I am
hesitant to discontinue advisories on Emily at this time in case the
new convection persists. Buoy 41010 southeast of the center has been
reporting sustained winds of 25-29 kt at a 4-meter elevation early
this morning, but the initial intensity will remain at 25 kt since
convection has only recently redeveloped.

Emily has made the anticipated turn toward the northeast and is now
moving 050/12 kt. The depression is embedded in southwesterly flow
ahead of an eastward-moving, deep-layer trough and frontal system.
Emily is forecast to accelerate northeastward over the western
Atlantic through the remainder of the forecast period, remain well
offshore of the southeast and east coasts of the United States. The
new official forecast track lies close to the previous advisory
track, and is between the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

Emily is expected to remain ahead of a cold front for the next 24
hours or so, which could allow for some slight strengthening while
the southwesterly vertical wind shear remains in the 10-15-kt range.
Thereafter, the shear is forecast to steadily increase, exceeding
30 kt by 60 h, resulting in Emily becoming an extratropical or
post-tropical remnant low by 36-48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast
is identical to the previous advisory, and is similar to the the
consensus model IVCN and guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 29.3N 78.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 30.4N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 32.1N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 33.9N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/1200Z 35.3N 68.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1200Z 37.6N 62.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1200Z 39.0N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#5
carribeanpirate

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View PostTatamyPA, on 01 August 2017 - 01:33 PM, said:



You're safe CP - it's being swept out to sea - no worries on this one...

Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017

After an earlier convective hiatus, recent satellite, radar, and
lightning data indicate that thunderstorm activity has redeveloped
within 20 nmi of the low-level center. Although the small
circulation is somewhat elongated northeast-to-southwest, I am
hesitant to discontinue advisories on Emily at this time in case the
new convection persists. Buoy 41010 southeast of the center has been
reporting sustained winds of 25-29 kt at a 4-meter elevation early
this morning, but the initial intensity will remain at 25 kt since
convection has only recently redeveloped.

Emily has made the anticipated turn toward the northeast and is now
moving 050/12 kt. The depression is embedded in southwesterly flow
ahead of an eastward-moving, deep-layer trough and frontal system.
Emily is forecast to accelerate northeastward over the western
Atlantic through the remainder of the forecast period, remain well
offshore of the southeast and east coasts of the United States. The
new official forecast track lies close to the previous advisory
track, and is between the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

Emily is expected to remain ahead of a cold front for the next 24
hours or so, which could allow for some slight strengthening while
the southwesterly vertical wind shear remains in the 10-15-kt range.
Thereafter, the shear is forecast to steadily increase, exceeding
30 kt by 60 h, resulting in Emily becoming an extratropical or
post-tropical remnant low by 36-48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast
is identical to the previous advisory, and is similar to the the
consensus model IVCN and guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 29.3N 78.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 30.4N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 32.1N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 33.9N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/1200Z 35.3N 68.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1200Z 37.6N 62.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1200Z 39.0N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

While I was being sarcastic, it's good to see

#6
carribeanpirate

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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 01 August 2017 - 06:30 PM, said:

While I was being sarcastic, it's good to see

And now the weekend forecast is caling for Saturday rain.....Maybe not this storm, but rain nonetheless.

#7
gpsnavigator

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Lots of pop-ups are getting going. Ours has produced a very brief downpour, but a couple of nasty lightening bolts.
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#8
BobInJersey

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Lightning and huge cracks of thunder here...no rain tho...looks like cell is about 4 miles north of me....
Keyport, NJ

#9
gpsnavigator

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I'm currently in the clear, but it looks like a very stormy afternoon is shaping up. Look at that radar.
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#10
nyrangers1022

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someone is getting bombarded to my southwest. Been getting very loud and frequent thunder here, but no rain yet

#11
gpsnavigator

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It is all around me. Started thundering again shortly after my last post, got really windy for a time, and appears to be ready to close in.
Major flight delays at area airports.
-GPSNav
Home: Rockaway, NJ - Morris County -- Elevation 745 feet
Work: Newton, NJ - Sussex County -- Elevation 570 feet
Interests: weather, hiking, kayaking, math, science, current events, classic cars, and craft beer

#12
weathergeek87

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Torrential rain, lightning and thunder. No hail, but will keep a look out.
Hamburg, NJ (Sussex County)

#13
weatherbowl

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Although I have yet to see a drop of rain here on Long Island, the forecast for pop up storms looks to have become a big pop up storm over a good part of N. J.:)
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#14
TatamyPA

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Been getting soaked here all afternoon. Up to 1.01" on the day.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#15
FreezingDrizzle

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The strong cells morphed and "danced" around my town for hours, but they all missed.
2017-2018 Frozen Precipitation Record

December 9, 2017 - 5.7 inches (low along offshore stationary front)
December 14, 2017 - 1.3 inches (clipper)
Total - 7.0 inches

#16
snowshoe

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we got hit good yesterday. I was watching the storm from High Point. Nice cloud to ground lighting in the valley. Someone reported hail in parts of HP. Just over 1.5 inches. Finally a storm that didn't go around us.
Location: Wantage NJ (Northwest Sussex County)
Total snow for 2017-2018 season 7.8 inches
Total snow for 2016-2017 season 62.1 inches
Total snow for 2015-2016 season 12 inches (Least amount ever recorded for my area)
Total snow for 2014-2015 season: 56.3 inches
Total snow for 2013-2014 season: 60.1 inches
Total snow for 2012-2013 season: 50.6 inches
Total snow for 2011-2012 season: 24 inches
Total snow for 2010-2011 season: 50.8 inches
Total snow for 2009-2010 season: 69.5 inches
Total snow for 2008-2009 season: 42.6 inches
Total snow for 2007-2008 season: 52.3 inches
Average 60 Inches

#17
weathergeek87

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Had some of the nastiest CTG lightning here yesterday. Really scary because the rain shut off but the lightning continued randomly. The locals call my area "lightning alley"
Hamburg, NJ (Sussex County)

#18
Mike_The_Golfer

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Got some very light showers in Queens...that was about it.
You're only young once, but you have your whole life to be immature!

#19
carribeanpirate

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Are we ever going to get a string of dry summer weather this year? It's like spring time with all the rain. Some of my flowers that sit in shady areas are dying from too much water, never getting a chance to dry out.

#20
robbbs

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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 04 August 2017 - 06:37 AM, said:

Are we ever going to get a string of dry summer weather this year? It's like spring time with all the rain. Some of my flowers that sit in shady areas are dying from too much water, never getting a chance to dry out.

Signals that a sustained drying pattern sets up by Tuesday/Wednesday next week.
rockburnweather.com
West Milford NJ





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