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Nate, Gulf Coast hurricane threat


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#1
Blizzard78

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http://www.nhc.noaa....l?cone#contents

#2
Mike_The_Golfer

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Looks like it may provide us some much-needed rain next week.
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#3
metfan4life

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The track has the remnants of Nate coming right into our area with much needed rain and some wind.
Anthony

#4
weathergeek87

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View Postmetfan4life, on 05 October 2017 - 09:22 PM, said:

The track has the remnants of Nate coming right into our area with much needed rain and some wind.

We are now on the map in terms of the drought monitor. We need some rainfall.
Hamburg, NJ (Sussex County)

#5
thundersleet

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Nate still looks like a bit of a disorganized blob on satellite. Also, another thing worth noticing is that the winds are skewed to the east of the center, so if that remains the case places west of landfall won't get a hard hit at all.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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#6
thundersleet

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Some of you know how I'm big into looking at wind shear maps. Well, right now, Nate is in an area of lower wind shear. But will the area of moderate wind shear between Nate and the Gulf Coast remain? If not, and if Nate continues to experience low levels of shear, then you can't rule out rapid intensification between now and landfall. This is a storm that could very well sneak up on people. The forward speed is a blessing because it means rain will be somewhat limited compared to a Harvey, but also a curse because it means people have little time to prepare if the storm rapidly intensifies (something not out of the realm of possibility):

Posted Image
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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#7
gpsnavigator

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Sleet, you read my mind re: rapid intensifying. Let's hope and pray not.
4 AM advisory has winds of 80 MPH, moving NNW at 22 mph, pressure 987.
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#8
thundersleet

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 gpsnavigator, on 07 October 2017 - 06:27 AM, said:

Sleet, you read my mind re: rapid intensifying. Let's hope and pray not.
4 AM advisory has winds of 80 MPH, moving NNW at 22 mph, pressure 987.

It was something the National Hurricane Center mentioned in one of its forecast discussions last night too. These sorts of conditions are ripe for storms just exploding. I am not saying that it will happen, but with indicators I am looking at, I certainly can't rule it out either.

The good news is that the storm is moving quickly, because it means that the storm has a limited amount of time to strengthen. The bad news is that the storm is moving quickly, because it means that people will have no time to prepare or evacuate if this suddenly becomes a Category 3 within hours of landfall (something I don't expect but don't rule out either given how storms have exploded in the Gulf in the past).

Overall, this is a concerning situation because I think people could be caught completely flat-footed by this one. Hopefully I am wrong.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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#9
gpsnavigator

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Hope so. It looked like on CNN's hurricane map, they are projecting Cat 2 at landfall. TWC isn't saying that, but we're now up to 90 mph, so not far away from Cat 2, and I would say another 5-10 mph of strengthening is within the realm of possible before landfall.
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#10
gpsnavigator

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TWC just said Cat 2 likely at landfall.
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#11
thundersleet

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 gpsnavigator, on 07 October 2017 - 11:13 AM, said:

Hope so. It looked like on CNN's hurricane map, they are projecting Cat 2 at landfall. TWC isn't saying that, but we're now up to 90 mph, so not far away from Cat 2, and I would say another 5-10 mph of strengthening is within the realm of possible before landfall.

 gpsnavigator, on 07 October 2017 - 11:21 AM, said:

TWC just said Cat 2 likely at landfall.

Yeah, I think that's the most likely outcome as far as intensity is concerned. Intensity seems to be increasing by 5mph every advisory, so if you average that out to a landfall late this evening, you're talking about winds around 100-105.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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#12
thundersleet

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It's also worth noting that the National Hurricane Center said that they were possibly being conservative re: intensity with the last advisory as well.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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#13
OrangeCountyWeather06

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Kept my eye off of Nate when I last heard it was going to be a either Strong Tropical Storm or lower end Cat 1 Hurricane. Boy did Nate sneak up on many. I hope areas down South are being made aware just how quickly things are intensifying and the concern should be growing.
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#14
weathergeek87

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Nate already flying towards LA coast. The forward speed will add to the winds. Looks like a strong quick hitting storm.
Hamburg, NJ (Sussex County)

#15
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Looks like Cat. 1, some weakening as it heads ashore.
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#16
carribeanpirate

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To the folks in this area, this is something common for them. We fwouldnfreak out, but they know what to do in that area and are prepared for it.

#17
weathergeek87

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It's not really as organized as many of the other systems have been this season.
Hamburg, NJ (Sussex County)

#18
OrangeCountyWeather06

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Nate made 2nd landfall in Mississippi. Bringing heavy rains inland.
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#19
thundersleet

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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 07 October 2017 - 09:03 PM, said:

To the folks in this area, this is something common for them. We fwouldnfreak out, but they know what to do in that area and are prepared for it.

Agreed. All-in-all, it was a relief that things weren't too bad and that the potential for rapid strengthening didn't materialize. It was a good thing Nate moved so quickly, because if it moved more slowly the story would be much different.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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Let's go Mets!

#20
weatherbowl

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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 07 October 2017 - 09:03 PM, said:

To the folks in this area, this is something common for them. We fwouldnfreak out, but they know what to do in that area and are prepared for it.

A storm like that hitting our area could cause more problems. We have so many above ground power lines and large trees that cause a lot of power problems when they fall. Florida, for example has so many palm trees that are wind resistant and so much more open space where houses are present. Up here you have houses surrounded by old, huge trees that have been standing for 50-100 years or more. We also have so many houses that are in flood prone areas. The population of an area, and we have a lot, makes a big difference on how bad things get. 50 years ago a storm like Harvey hitting the Houston area is far less a problem. The wild fires out west burned mostly woods and brush 50 years ago, now they burn houses.
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