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December Weather


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#641
BobInJersey

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View PostFreezingDrizzle, on 29 December 2017 - 10:54 AM, said:

Bevans is a seasoned NYC forecaster, but he puts out a 7-day forecast, the last few days of which are specific, and worthless.

Agree 100%......
Keyport, NJ

#642
Blizzard78

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View PostNYCSNOWMAN, on 29 December 2017 - 10:51 AM, said:

I like Bill Evans ..he still is on air..

Nick Gregory and Craig Allen are the best.

My alltime favorite is Lloyd Lindsay Young!

50 below video
https://www.youtube....Y0E&app=desktop
.






i'm a deplorable who lives on another planet

#643
canisteerrd

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View Postweatherbowl, on 29 December 2017 - 12:10 PM, said:

The cold air is just to strong to allow any storms of any consequence to develop over our area. Tomorrows dusting is last weeks 40 inch snowstorm and next Thursdays storm is well out to sea already. At least that is a week away so it still has to be watched. However it does not look good, as one shot of cold air after the other keeps us mostly high and dry. Good for ice fishing.
Yes. Good for ice fishing. Neighborhood kids have been playing ice hockey on our lake for a week. I'm a little warm when it comes to ice, and like it at least 6" thick before I go ice fishing. Probably is that thick by now haven't tested it. Don't like the snow cover on it except where they plowed for hockey. Maybe Sunday morning I'll drill some holes.
Elev: 1217'

2012-2013 total snow: 67.0"
2013- 2014 total snow: 67.0"
2014-2015 total snow: 71.1"
2015-2016 total snow: 31"
2016-2017 total snow 61"
2017-2018 snow to date: 84"
Lowest temp this season: -5° 1-7-18

#644
weathergeek87

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Light snow falling. Very cold. All the snow on my deck that fell last week has stuck around, in fact the mountain remains white.
Hamburg, NJ (Sussex County)

#645
wxwatcher

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I don't necessarily disagree with what you've written, robbs, but with the current La Niña and the resulting chaotic Pacific pattern, models are going to be predictably bad. This would be on top of whatever problems the models have on a good day.

View Postrobbbs, on 29 December 2017 - 09:11 AM, said:



Some of us believe the models have actually gotten worse. NOAA might disagree and cite stats that show otherwise. However, the stats themselves can be misleading. A 10 day stretch of fair and seasonable weather in the summer can score highly on model accuracy stats. But when it comes to event forecasting, phantom storms, inconsistency among the models or from run to run within the same model, I think they've gotten worse. Some of this no doubt is attributable to more people now having access to models (some of those same issues existed before but who outside the industry knew?). But even within the last 5 years or so, I see a change in the Euro and the old line of "Euro is King" is not heard very much anymore as that model has been tweaked and its results dismal at times. Some of it may also be attributable to overall synoptic patterns as some patterns are easier to forecast than others. However, I don't like model performance, particularly in the past few years, and I'm not simply referencing 5+ days out. We've seen horrible model forecasting within hours of an event start.
Lastly, don't underestimate the politics, money, and self-serving interests at play who will defend model performance. While I was not a Chris Christie fan, I give him credit for criticizing the NWS after the second or third time he declared a state emergency based on the forecasts of blizzards that never materialized. He was then roundly criticized for those comments by NOAA and the met community. Then there's the old line of it not being an exact science, yet how many times have people on this board correctly questioned forecasts before they busted? It seems that in the eyes of the NWS they can do no wrong and there is always that lame excuse. There are times that forecasts legitimately bust, but there is also irresponsible and incompetent forecasting.


#646
satellite_eyes

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12z gfs - continues to be bone dry.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"

Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6

#647
vascudave

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View PostBlizzard78, on 29 December 2017 - 12:28 PM, said:



Nick Gregory and Craig Allen are the best.

My alltime favorite is Lloyd Lindsay Young!

50 below video
https://www.youtube....Y0E&app=desktop

LLOYD WAS GREAT!

"SCIENCE!!"

https://www.youtube....h?v=CVZgEXGMGqc

#648
robbbs

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View Postwxwatcher, on 29 December 2017 - 01:04 PM, said:

I don't necessarily disagree with what you've written, robbs, but with the current La Niña and the resulting chaotic Pacific pattern, models are going to be predictably bad. This would be on top of whatever problems the models have on a good day.

Agree; I mentioned that some patterns are easier for the models to pick up on than others. Having said that, their performance has been pretty bad over several seasons and patterns.
rockburnweather.com
West Milford NJ

#649
carribeanpirate

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View Postwxwatcher, on 29 December 2017 - 01:04 PM, said:

I don't necessarily disagree with what you've written, robbs, but with the current La Niña and the resulting chaotic Pacific pattern, models are going to be predictably bad. This would be on top of whatever problems the models have on a good day.

We’ve had La Niña conditions with modern models. Algorithms should be able to handle this with historical data.

#650
FreezingDrizzle

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As for tomorrow, looks like a coating to an inch-or-two. Should look wintry, with this type of cold-air snow.
Guys on TV are saying a bit more to the south of Route 78, than to the north.
2017-2018 Frozen Precipitation Record

December 9, 2017 - 5.7 inches (low along offshore stationary front)
December 14, 2017 - 1.3 inches (clipper)
December 15, 2017 - 1.6 inches (weak coastal)
December 30, 2017 - 0.9 inches (clipper)
January 4, 2018 - 8.6 inches (strong coastal storm)
January 9, 2018 - Glaze of freezing rain, with light sleet
January 17, 2018 - 1.0 inches [dense snow] (clipper/coastal, rain to heavy snow)
January 30, 2018 - 0.9 inches [thin slushy layer below] (brush with coastal)
February 7, 2018 - 0.6 inches [heavy snow to rain] (WAA)
February 17, 2018 - 4.6 inches [heavy wet snow, four hours, intense rates]
March 2, 2018 - 0.7 inches [7 hrs snow at 34 F, dense] (strong 2ndary coastal)
March 7, 2018 - 5.5 inches [heaviest rates ever seen, 33-34 F, very dense, thundersnows] (strong 2ndary coastal)
March 13, 2018 - 1.1 inches [dense slush, above freezing] (Outer edge of strong 2ndary coastal)
March 21-22, 2018 - 11.9 inches [20 hours of snowfall] (strong 2ndary coastal) Historic spring storm.
April 2, 2018 - 2.2 inches [dense accumulation, morning of Easter Monday] (wave on front) 60 F the day before.
Total - 47.3 inches

#651
rgwp96

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Big rainstorm on gfs day 10 , watch it nail that one.
Butler, New Jersey





Visit My weatherstation

snowfall
17-18= 71.8 ytd
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#652
weatherbowl

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18z GFS looks to have come a little further west with next Thursday storm. Still hope.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#653
winterbird04

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View Postweatherbowl, on 29 December 2017 - 06:10 PM, said:

18z GFS looks to have come a little further west with next Thursday storm. Still hope.

Me thinks it needs a lot more west lol?
Go EAGLES, PHILLIES AND FLYERS


(Hackettstown NJ Warren co.)

#654
weatherbowl

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View Postwinterbird04, on 29 December 2017 - 06:25 PM, said:

Me thinks it needs a lot more west lol?

No doubt, but at least its west and not east.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#655
rgwp96

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Band dropped another .5 tonight . 1.2 fort the total
Butler, New Jersey





Visit My weatherstation

snowfall
17-18= 71.8 ytd
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32





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