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2/6 TO 2/7 event


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#1
vascudave

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Current forecast for rockaway (my work)

Tuesday Night

A slight chance of freezing rain after 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 22. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.


Wednesday

Snow and freezing rain before 2pm, then rain, snow, and sleet between 2pm and 3pm, then rain after 3pm. High near 37. East wind 6 to 9 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.


Wednesday Night

Rain before 10pm, then rain, snow, and sleet between 10pm and 11pm, then snow after 11pm. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

#2
vascudave

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ohhh 3-5"
http://f1.weather.go...ce1=Bridgewater NJ&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook&lat=40.5993&lon=-74.6172#.Wnhod2eWyHs

#3
weathergeek87

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5" on the snowmap for Sussex for Wed night
Hamburg, NJ (Sussex County)

#4
metfan4life

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I wonder if the precip will come in faster than modeled. That will help the whole area, especially the coast. I do think that this will be a mostly rain event for the coast but a mix inland and mostly snow for the far interior areas near Albany.

It all depends on where the low ends up tracking.
Anthony

#5
okterrific83

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Looks like it starts as snow and turns to rain?

#6
vascudave

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another slop fest
Wednesday looks fun depending on location

#7
metfan4life

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GFS looks great for North Jersey northward
Anthony

#8
darkstar

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Looks like 5 to 8 is my call for street
Highland Lakes, NJ
Elevation 1400 ft

#9
rgwp96

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Iíll get 2 inches than sleet
Butler, New Jersey





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snowfall
17-18= 71.8 ytd
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#10
FreezingDrizzle

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What the heck? That is a major sleet storm being forecasted. I think it is a glitch in their computer-generated forecast, it must include the rainfall.

Upton forecast for Staten Island:

Wednesday Night


Rain, possibly mixing with sleet after 1am, then gradually ending. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

2017-2018 Frozen Precipitation Record

December 9, 2017 - 5.7 inches (low along offshore stationary front)
December 14, 2017 - 1.3 inches (clipper)
December 15, 2017 - 1.6 inches (weak coastal)
December 30, 2017 - 0.9 inches (clipper)
January 4, 2018 - 8.6 inches (strong coastal storm)
January 9, 2018 - Glaze of freezing rain, with light sleet
January 17, 2018 - 1.0 inches [dense snow] (clipper/coastal, rain to heavy snow)
January 30, 2018 - 0.9 inches [thin slushy layer below] (brush with coastal)
February 7, 2018 - 0.6 inches [heavy snow to rain] (WAA)
February 17, 2018 - 4.6 inches [heavy wet snow, four hours, intense rates]
March 2, 2018 - 0.7 inches [7 hrs snow at 34 F, dense] (strong 2ndary coastal)
March 7, 2018 - 5.5 inches [heaviest rates ever seen, 33-34 F, very dense, thundersnows] (strong 2ndary coastal)
March 13, 2018 - 1.1 inches [dense slush, above freezing] (Outer edge of strong 2ndary coastal)
March 21-22, 2018 - 11.9 inches [20 hours of snowfall] (strong 2ndary coastal) Historic spring storm.
April 2, 2018 - 2.2 inches [dense accumulation, morning of Easter Monday] (wave on front) 60 F the day before.
Total - 47.3 inches

#11
metfan4life

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View PostFreezingDrizzle, on 05 February 2018 - 01:52 PM, said:

What the heck? That is a major sleet storm being forecasted. I think it is a glitch in their computer-generated forecast, it must include the rainfall.

Upton forecast for Staten Island:

Wednesday Night


Rain, possibly mixing with sleet after 1am, then gradually ending. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.


It might start off as sleet and snow.
Anthony

#12
metfan4life

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This is very close to a nice front end thump for the city on the 18z Nam



Area just to the north and west of the city get a nice front end thump
Anthony

#13
weathergeek87

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Winter Storm Watch posted for Sussex, Orange and northern Passaic Counties

Mt. Holly thinking 4-7" followed by 0.1" ice
Upton thinking 3-6" followed by 0.1" ice
Hamburg, NJ (Sussex County)

#14
OrangeCountyWeather06

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Western areas of the suburbs could do really well some models show near 10” in parts of NW NJ and Orange County. Then 3”-5” as you go east into CT.
Cornwall NY

#15
rgwp96

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View Postweathergeek87, on 05 February 2018 - 04:59 PM, said:

Winter Storm Watch posted for Sussex, Orange and northern Passaic Counties

Mt. Holly thinking 4-7" followed by 0.1" ice
Upton thinking 3-6" followed by 0.1" ice

My back yard has a watch , my front yard nothing
Butler, New Jersey





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snowfall
17-18= 71.8 ytd
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#16
OrangeCountyWeather06

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RGEM gives the Hudson Valley a good thump of snow before changeover to mix.
Cornwall NY

#17
canisteerrd

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View Postrgwp96, on 05 February 2018 - 05:11 PM, said:



My back yard has a watch , my front yard nothing
That's funny! Nicely done.
Elev: 1217'

2012-2013 total snow: 67.0"
2013- 2014 total snow: 67.0"
2014-2015 total snow: 71.1"
2015-2016 total snow: 31"
2016-2017 total snow 61"
2017-2018 snow to date: 84"
2018-2019 snow to date: Trace
Lowest temp this season: 25į 11/12/18

#18
wishcast_hater

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I'm under a winter storm watch for 4 to 8 inches with a glaze over that.

#19
gpsnavigator

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20 miles away, my Mom, and our campus are under a winter storm watch.
Here, not even an advisory.

In elevation events, I usually find here in Rockaway is just where things just start to get interesting heading west and north. This will be fun to track.
-GPSNav
Home: Rockaway, NJ - Morris County -- Elevation 745 feet
Work: Newton, NJ - Sussex County -- Elevation 570 feet
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#20
wishcast_hater

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Guess no one gives a crap about this storm since itís mostly for us folks way north.





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