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3/6 to 3/7 storm discuss


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#1
vascudave

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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure is forecast to build across our region from west
to east for Monday into early Tuesday. We are anticipating dry
weather and near seasonable temperatures at that time.

The expected weather system for the middle of the new week has
some of the same characteristics as the storm that affected our
region on Friday. However, the system should not be as robust as
its predecessor.

Low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes and the Ohio
River Valley on Tuesday is forecast to weaken. Energy is
expected to shift to another low developing along the North
Carolina coast on Tuesday night. The coastal low is anticipated
to intensify rapidly as it moves northeastward. It should pass
to our east on Wednesday and it is forecast to track near Cape
Cod on Wednesday night.

Sustained wind speeds on land are expected to be in the 10 to
20 mph range with gusts perhaps around 30 mph, not nearly as
strong as our last storm. Precipitation totals may range from
1.0 to 1.5 inches with locally higher amounts. At this time, the
guidance is focusing the heaviest precipitation in our region
on the coastal plain.

#2
vascudave

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hoping it changes but noaa has me at 80% chance of snow on wednesday

#3
carribeanpirate

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How is the last storm affecting this one? In other words, it seems slow to exit, will that cause issues with the next one? Planning to be traveling (again) on Wed and thinking of my early flight.

#4
weatherbowl

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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 04 March 2018 - 10:24 AM, said:

How is the last storm affecting this one? In other words, it seems slow to exit, will that cause issues with the next one? Planning to be traveling (again) on Wed and thinking of my early flight.

I have been hearing some of the local mets saying this next storm will start before Wednesday morning rush hour. I have my doubts. This storm we just had is very slow to depart and could delay the start of the next one.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#5
darkstar

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12Z GFS has a sharp cut off in precip near Highpoint, NJ
Solid event for most.
Highland Lakes, NJ
Elevation 1400 ft

#6
nyrangers1022

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12z Canadian is a swing and a miss

#7
winterbird04

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View Postweatherbowl, on 04 March 2018 - 10:47 AM, said:



I have been hearing some of the local mets saying this next storm will start before Wednesday morning rush hour. I have my doubts. This storm we just had is very slow to depart and could delay the start of the next one.

Next one looks to be not as much of a slow mover as the last one.
Go EAGLES, PHILLIES AND FLYERS


(Hackettstown NJ Warren co.)

#8
metfan4life

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Euro has some snow for storm 2 for NYC. Mot3 for LI and sne.
WINTER OF 2018-2019

11/15/18 : 5.0"

#9
winterbird04

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View Postmetfan4life, on 04 March 2018 - 02:05 PM, said:

Euro has some snow for storm 2 for NYC. Mot3 for LI and sne.

Looks like decent amounts for most of us.
Go EAGLES, PHILLIES AND FLYERS


(Hackettstown NJ Warren co.)

#10
NYCSNOWMAN

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View Postwinterbird04, on 04 March 2018 - 02:15 PM, said:



Looks like decent amounts for most of us.
lots ..of tracking ahead
Rob
God Bless America
"WATING FOR WINTERS FURY"
Fleetwood, NY

#11
lawnboy11

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NWS Upton calling for 3-5 Weds afternoon in Nassau


#12
wishcast_hater

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Clouds look to increase for Tuesday night and some light snow may start to spread across western areas thanks to the approach of the upper level low. However, the more widespread and steady precipitation looks to occur for Wednesday into Wednesday night, with the heaviest precip on Wednesday evening. Model soundings suggests plenty of cold air in place aloft, and the boundary layer should be fairly cold as well, so any precip looks to be in the form of snow across the area. Models and ensemble guidance still don`t agree on the exact amounts, but the general idea is for the heaviest amounts to be south/east of the Capital Region, with a moderate to locally heavy snowfall possible for this area. Highs only look to reach the low to mid 30s for most areas on Wednesday.

#13
metfan4life

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Nam has 8-12 inches for NYC and LI
WINTER OF 2018-2019

11/15/18 : 5.0"

#14
metfan4life

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Upton has 4-6 inches areawide on their snowmap
WINTER OF 2018-2019

11/15/18 : 5.0"

#15
pmgav

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From Mt Holly's 4:55 discussion ... sounds eerily familiar

A coastal storm will affect our weather late Tuesday night into
Wednesday evening. There is still uncertainty regarding the track
evolution of this storm.

Heavy precipitation is possible at times Wednesday,especially in New
Jersey. While there is always uncertainty due to track and
temperatures, odds are favoring mostly snow for this system. How
much sticks at various times of the day is unknown due to near
freezing temperatures.

There is the potential for areas of heavy wet snow, especially in
the hills of New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. Plowable slushy
amounts are likely and both commutes are expected to be impacted by
at a minimum of wet roads and occasionally low visibility in snow.
Timing of heaviest precipitation is yet to be confidently
determined.

Six inch amounts are `possible` in some places, especially the
elevations near and north of I-78 across northern new Jersey and
east central and northeast Pennsylvania. If six inch amounts occur,
the risk for further power outages increases due to the weight of the
snow on the branches and wires, and also possibly causing tree
uproots, due to the already wet ground.

#16
OrangeCountyWeather06

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RGEM drops 1” of liquid in 6 hours. 1”-2” hr rates over NYC for 6+ hours and still snowing. Wow.
Cornwall NY

#17
winterbird04

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OK is that model ever correct just saying LOL. Except this time I heard a lot of the models are all in sync together.
Go EAGLES, PHILLIES AND FLYERS


(Hackettstown NJ Warren co.)

#18
nyrangers1022

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View PostOrangeCountyWeather06, on 04 March 2018 - 05:38 PM, said:

RGEM drops 1” of liquid in 6 hours. 1”-2” hr rates over NYC for 6+ hours and still snowing. Wow.


Sucks. We don't need it

#19
metfan4life

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View Postnyrangers1022, on 04 March 2018 - 05:56 PM, said:

Sucks.  We don't need it

Yes I do
WINTER OF 2018-2019

11/15/18 : 5.0"

#20
winterbird04

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View Postmetfan4life, on 04 March 2018 - 06:22 PM, said:



Yes I do

Crack me up .....
Go EAGLES, PHILLIES AND FLYERS


(Hackettstown NJ Warren co.)





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