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Winter 18-19 chat


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#1
satellite_eyes

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So it looks like a 65% chance of El Nino. No mention of strength.

https://www.msn.com/...ID=ansmsnnews11

I remember the strong 15-16 el nino. Very little snow up there. Also the storms out west were nowhere near what is normally predicted for an el nino.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"

Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6

#2
metfan4life

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Rather take a chance with EL Nino than a la niņa. Too early to say how strong it will be but a weak one would be great for the east coast

NYC received over 40 inches of snow in 2015 -2016.
Anthony

#3
satellite_eyes

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Yeh it seems like Nina's can be bi-polar. Much warmer at times and much colder at times. El Nino's are usually warmer but with a more active storm track.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"

Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6

#4
metfan4life

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I know it's way too early but this is a good article by my friend Ray Spinazola Jr. for this upcoming winter.

Looking more and more like an EL Nino winter might be on the way.

https://easternmassw...r-2018.html?m=1
Anthony

#5
metfan4life

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https://patch.com/ne...ntent=smithtown
Anthony

#6
robbbs

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View Postmetfan4life, on 22 June 2018 - 02:19 PM, said:


That's an ominous article.
rockburnweather.com
West Milford NJ

#7
nyrangers1022

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I'm going to say an average winter. Give or take a few degrees and few inches . Possible chance of a biG daddy. But also same chance of a dud winter

#8
metfan4life

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View Postnyrangers1022, on 22 June 2018 - 07:19 PM, said:

I'm going to say an average winter. Give or take a few degrees and few inches . Possible chance of a biG daddy. But also same chance of a dud winter

Safe bet lol
Anthony

#9
Ehop

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I think we are going to have a cold spell, a few strange warm days, have several disappointing storms that appear on the model two days out. Anther decent storm that screws people. You know like every winter.

#10
metfan4life

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Still looking like a weak EL Nino ( modoki )
Anthony

#11
metfan4life

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Joe BastardI

"Major cold stormy winter in the cards

Could simply evolve into it from fall

Extreme of coldest air could wind up over much of the US this winter"


Anthony

#12
Mike_The_Golfer

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Has he ever said that we would be in store for a mild winter? My guess would be never.
You're only young once, but you have your whole life to be immature!

#13
metfan4life

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View PostMike_The_Golfer, on 10 August 2018 - 09:04 AM, said:

Has he ever said that we would be in store for a mild winter? My guess would be never.

I think he did in the past but he might be right about this winter if everything holds.
Anthony

#14
Mike_The_Golfer

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Doesn't a typical el nino mean an active east coast storm track, but not necessarily colder. It could just as likely be more wet than white, no?
You're only young once, but you have your whole life to be immature!

#15
metfan4life

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View PostMike_The_Golfer, on 10 August 2018 - 10:20 AM, said:

Doesn't a typical el nino mean an active east coast storm track, but not necessarily colder. It could just as likely be more wet than white, no?

Correct

It also depends on if it's east based or west based.

I rather take my chances with an el Nino than a la Nina.
Anthony

#16
weathergeek87

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Agreed I'm liking an El Niņo over La Niņa in terms of snow chances. But this time I want the snow to actually accumulate and stick around!
Hamburg, NJ (Sussex County)

#17
metfan4life

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View Postweathergeek87, on 10 August 2018 - 03:07 PM, said:

Agreed I'm liking an El Niņo over La Niņa in terms of snow chances. But this time I want the snow to actually accumulate and stick around!

If we do get a west based el Nino , chances are good even though we might miss out on suppressed storms lol
Anthony

#18
metfan4life

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Suppression is a bigger fear with el Nino
Anthony

#19
weathergeek87

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Posted Image

Did anyone see this from last week? Twister formed over LGA, touched down over College Point, Queens. Some damage reported.
Hamburg, NJ (Sussex County)

#20
wishcast_hater

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Higher than average chance of winter this year according to NOAA.
Chance of cold this winter - Weather Channel
Sounds like a lock to me.





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