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Winter 18-19 chat


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#41
weathergeek87

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View Postsatellite_eyes, on 30 October 2018 - 06:53 AM, said:

I like that video at the bottom that shows all the snow that fell last winter. I guess the main idea is that a more moderate el nino will mean more snow chances. IMO it's good for DC to get a lot of snow. NYC will get theirs. Even in the 09-10 winter you ended with about the same amount as DC. And NW NJ got quite a bit more.

Waiting on my NW NJ crush job!!!
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#42
winterbird04

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View Postweathergeek87, on 30 October 2018 - 07:01 AM, said:



Waiting on my NW NJ crush job!!!

Yes !!!
Go EAGLES, PHILLIES AND FLYERS


(Hackettstown NJ Warren co.)

#43
robbbs

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LC winter outlook released this evening. Honestly, it's one of the strongest rough winter outlooks for the northeast that I've seen in a while. Says significantly above normal snowfall. Draws analogs to the winters of 1993/94, and 2014/15. Both winters gave Central Park over 50" for the season.
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#44
metfan4life

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View Postrobbbs, on 31 October 2018 - 08:18 PM, said:

LC winter outlook released this evening. Honestly, it's one of the strongest rough winter outlooks for the northeast that I've seen in a while. Says significantly above normal snowfall. Draws analogs to the winters of 1993/94, and 2014/15. Both winters gave Central Park over 50" for the season.

This might be a very snowy winter if the el Nino cooperates.
WINTER OF 2018-2019
11/15/18 : 5.0"
1/18/19 : 0.5"
1/30/19 : 0.8"
2/12/19 : 1.8"

Total : 8.1"

#45
jfar57

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Even with the El Nino it is hard to believe we don't run into a prolonged stretch of dry weather.
Randolph NJ

#46
metfan4life

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View Postjfar57, on 01 November 2018 - 08:23 AM, said:

Even with the El Nino it is hard to believe we don't run into a prolonged stretch of dry weather.

I agree
WINTER OF 2018-2019
11/15/18 : 5.0"
1/18/19 : 0.5"
1/30/19 : 0.8"
2/12/19 : 1.8"

Total : 8.1"

#47
NYCSNOWMAN

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View Postmetfan4life, on 31 October 2018 - 09:41 PM, said:



This might be a very snowy winter if the el Nino cooperates.
strongly agree
Rob
God Bless America
"WATING FOR WINTERS FURY"
Fleetwood, NY

#48
metfan4life

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Earthlight's winter forecast



https://www.nymetrow...cast-2018-2019/



Snowfall well above normal for NYC
WINTER OF 2018-2019
11/15/18 : 5.0"
1/18/19 : 0.5"
1/30/19 : 0.8"
2/12/19 : 1.8"

Total : 8.1"

#49
robbbs

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View Postmetfan4life, on 02 November 2018 - 03:22 PM, said:

Earthlight's winter forecast



https://www.nymetrow...cast-2018-2019/



Snowfall well above normal for NYC

Seems to be the consensus outlook; also back-loaded, meaning the second half of winter is expected to be the really harsh part.
rockburnweather.com
West Milford NJ

#50
weathergeek87

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With the unbelievable amount of rain the last 6 months, I feel we will at least dry out somewhat this winter.
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#51
metfan4life

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DT is going with a very snowy and cold winter for the east coast. He has February being very cold and snowy with the December , January and March being near normal.



He has the east coast from the Mid Atalntic to New England being 200 percent above normal with snowfall this winter. First time ever he has done that.





https://youtu.be/BsSvbF1IcXs


WINTER OF 2018-2019
11/15/18 : 5.0"
1/18/19 : 0.5"
1/30/19 : 0.8"
2/12/19 : 1.8"

Total : 8.1"

#52
jimjesswill3

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Trying to make a decision on whether I should buy snow tires for my wife's Durango or all terrain tires for the Durango.

snow tires without cold and snow are worthless they will deteriorate very fast,

Looking at a Mastercraft courser MSR snow tire or a Mickey Thompson Deegan 38 all terrain, anyone familiar with these?

Both tires are made by the Cooper Tire Company
Jim-Marshalls Creek PA
41.0976 N 75.1217 W
Elevation 1099.1 feet

#53
jimjesswill3

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2018/2019 Winter forecast

https://www.youtube....h?v=qtuL3Kj2E3o
Jim-Marshalls Creek PA
41.0976 N 75.1217 W
Elevation 1099.1 feet

#54
carribeanpirate

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View Postmetfan4life, on 03 November 2018 - 07:58 AM, said:

DT is going with a very snowy and cold winter for the east coast. He has February being very cold and snowy with the December , January and March being near normal.



He has the east coast from the Mid Atalntic to New England being 200 percent above normal with snowfall this winter. First time ever he has done that.





https://youtu.be/BsSvbF1IcXs

At least he admits that 2/3 rds of his forecast is a guess.

#55
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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 03 November 2018 - 09:18 AM, said:

At least he admits that 2/3 rds of his forecast is a guess.

Long range forecasts are part guesses. This is why a lot of them have failed in past years.
WINTER OF 2018-2019
11/15/18 : 5.0"
1/18/19 : 0.5"
1/30/19 : 0.8"
2/12/19 : 1.8"

Total : 8.1"

#56
weathergeek87

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View Postmetfan4life, on 03 November 2018 - 10:11 AM, said:



Long range forecasts are part guesses. This is why a lot of them have failed in past years.

This is why I don't believe any single one of them
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#57
Mike_The_Golfer

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View Postweathergeek87, on 02 November 2018 - 11:17 PM, said:

With the unbelievable amount of rain the last 6 months, I feel we will at least dry out somewhat this winter.

I'm a big believer that things tend to even out over time. So I feel not only are we due for a dry stretch following a wet 6-8 months, but also after the last handful of winters, we are due for a mild winter. Whether that comes this year or not... we'll see.
You're only young once, but you have your whole life to be immature!

#58
OrangeCountyWeather06

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They have this old method that some of the old farmers almanac use. The caterpillars hairs are dark black this year and many are calling for a harsh winter in terms of above average snowfall. LOL just when I thought I heard it all.
Cornwall NY

#59
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View PostMike_The_Golfer, on 03 November 2018 - 11:00 AM, said:

I'm a big believer that things tend to even out over time. So I feel not only are we due for a dry stretch following a wet 6-8 months, but also after the last handful of winters, we are due for a mild winter. Whether that comes this year or not... we'll see.

I agree. We have had numerous winters recently with above average snowfall. The past 5 winters in a row have been above normal snowfall in NYC. We are due for a below normal one. I'm not saying it will be mild as far as temperatures go, the past 3 winters have actually been above normal with temps. I understand the past does not dictate the future but it is probably just as accurate to look at it that way as with long term forecasting.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#60
metfan4life

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Models come out earlier now =)
WINTER OF 2018-2019
11/15/18 : 5.0"
1/18/19 : 0.5"
1/30/19 : 0.8"
2/12/19 : 1.8"

Total : 8.1"





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