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Tracking Hurricane Florence


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#21
metfan4life

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GFS has the storm recurving while the cmc ukie and Euro have it hitting the Carolinas
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#22
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View Postmetfan4life, on 07 September 2018 - 02:42 AM, said:

GFS has the storm recurving while the cmc ukie and Euro have it hitting the Carolinas
Like Hugo1989?
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#23
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This morning GFS would be a bad scenario from D.C. to Long Island. Still a long way off.
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#24
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Good morning. I have a facebook page called Brooklyn/Queens/Long Island Weather and i have been mentioning Florence since last week....
here is my update today.


Florence Update:


Another Day, Another Model Run, Another Agreement!




Florence is still 7 days away from the NY Metro/Long Island area but her affects will be felt as early as Tuesday. Rough seas will be felt about 1,000 miles away from what is forecast to become a CAT 3/4 Hurricane by next Tuesday. The forecast has the potential for a major impact along the East Coast from North Carolina to New England. Preparation!




Some things to watch for:


First, there is a high pressure ridge build in the North Atlantic. If the ridge holds firm, and is forecast to do so, then the steering currents could direct Florence into the East Coast and then North.


Second, the water temps along the East Coast are warmer than usual with some of the temps into the low 80's. Hurricane's use warmer ocean temps as fuel to become stronger.


Third, There does not appear to be any strong cold fronts coming down from Canada next week that will be able to impact Florence.




So here's the deal. 7 days out and if you live along the Jersey shore, Staten Island shore, lower Manhattan, Southern Bronx, South Shore of Brooklyn and Queens and anywhere near the water along the southern coast of Nassau and Suffolk,you should begin to prepare for some sort of evacuation. This does not exclude the North shore of Long Island.




This does not mean move tomorrow, to much time and things can change. But it does mean that if you have valuables in a basement (pictures, computers, large TV's) or in a backyard (expensive yard furniture, old car, other items) you should create a plan on where to move these items in a day or two of notice.




It does look like a major impact can be felt anywhere in the areas I described above. Preparation is imperative!




Prepare, do not execute! There is still time and this is weather. Mother Nature has her own set of rules and she certainly does not follow computer models, but we are given some clues to forecast the direction of a storm. By Monday or Tuesday, the forecast will be pretty much nailed down and by Tuesday/Wednesday if the forecast holds true, then you need to execute your evacuation plans.




I update this way not to scare you or sensationalize a possible event, but to make sure you have time to prepare. (I used that word a lot)




Have a great day everyone, stay safe.


#25
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This seems like it would be a bit too far north to be a Hugo track. Hugo was very bad for Charlotte and had a more gradual curve. Florence doesn't look to come as far inland but of course things can change in either direction still.
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#26
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As of right now , NYC is safe
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#27
metfan4life

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Models are coming together for a Georgia to NC landfall.

Can it change ? Sure
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#28
metfan4life

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View Postsatellite_eyes, on 07 September 2018 - 07:37 AM, said:

This seems like it would be a bit too far north to be a Hugo track. Hugo was very bad for Charlotte and had a more gradual curve. Florence doesn't look to come as far inland but of course things can change in either direction still.

You might have to start to prepare if the models keep showing a Carolina hit.
Anthony

#29
Nymet54

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View Postmetfan4life, on 07 September 2018 - 03:06 PM, said:



You might have to start to prepare if the models keep showing a Carolina hit.
At least for now the nyc and Long Island looks to excape from this system.

#30
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There is no certainty where this storm will go. It could still hit anywhere from Northern Florida to New England. GFS shows it hitting North Carolina and going up through the mid Atlantic and affecting our area. The Euro is further south. Another potential problem with Florence is the possibility it could slow down and kind of meander around, no matter where it hits. This could cause serious flooding.
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#31
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View Postweatherbowl, on 07 September 2018 - 06:57 PM, said:

There is no certainty where this storm will go. It could still hit anywhere from Northern Florida to New England. GFS shows it hitting North Carolina and going up through the mid Atlantic and affecting our area. The Euro is further south. Another potential problem with Florence is the possibility it could slow down and kind of meander around, no matter where it hits. This could cause serious flooding.

It may start making the northern curve as it approaches the NC/VA coast (of course some models actually have it hitting Georgia), if it does that it may be a big rain maker here. Still far out but will be interesting to see how the high pressure affects it.
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#32
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View Postweatherbowl, on 07 September 2018 - 06:57 PM, said:

There is no certainty where this storm will go. It could still hit anywhere from Northern Florida to New England. GFS shows it hitting North Carolina and going up through the mid Atlantic and affecting our area. The Euro is further south. Another potential problem with Florence is the possibility it could slow down and kind of meander around, no matter where it hits. This could cause serious flooding.

16" of rain over the next 9 days over northern NJ, per the 18Z GFS.
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#33
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View Postweatherbowl, on 07 September 2018 - 06:57 PM, said:

There is no certainty where this storm will go. It could still hit anywhere from Northern Florida to New England. GFS shows it hitting North Carolina and going up through the mid Atlantic and affecting our area. The Euro is further south. Another potential problem with Florence is the possibility it could slow down and kind of meander around, no matter where it hits. This could cause serious flooding.
in my opinion by sunday night oz suite we shall have a much clearer pucture of where we stand
Rob
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#34
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Either way, it's getting more ominous for a lot of areas if the modeling holds true.
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#35
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View Postgpsnavigator, on 08 September 2018 - 06:50 AM, said:

Either way, it's getting more ominous for a lot of areas if the modeling holds true.

I’ve been following Florence and I have to say this is one is definitely hard to track. I heard there was a L that developed ahead of Florence.
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#36
weatherbowl

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GFS now has Florence sitting off Hatteras and gradually moving out to sea. Even this scenario could have big affects on our area. With a major hurricane sitting offshore for that long, the wave action could cause serious erosion along the shores from NC to New England. The Euro has it hitting S.C. and meandering up through Virginia. I am beginning to think flooding could be a huge impact with this storm because of its potential slow movement. It is becoming more certain it will hit or come very close to the east coast. If there was one saving grace, it is still a tropical storm and has not intensified. Unfortunately, the models all say intensification to a major hurricane is likely.
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#37
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View PostOrangeCountyWeather06, on 08 September 2018 - 07:01 AM, said:



Iíve been following Florence and I have to say this is one is definitely hard to track. I heard there was a L that developed ahead of Florence.

Gordon
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#38
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We are focusing on Florence but the Atlantic is just full of tropical systems. After an almost dormant August, what a change.
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#39
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Long Time since i Posted

Look at the size of Florence On the 9/8 GFS 06z run

Posted Image



Posted Image

#40
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HurricaneFF - that map you posted above is valid 9/19.
Is that Florence or a different hurricane?
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