It looks like it has a large area of bath water to travel over too.
#41
Posted 08 September 2018 - 10:58 AM

-GPSNav
Home: Rockaway, NJ - Morris County -- Elevation 745 feet
Work: Newton, NJ - Sussex County -- Elevation 570 feet
Interests: weather, hiking, kayaking, math, science, current events, classic cars, and craft beer
Home: Rockaway, NJ - Morris County -- Elevation 745 feet
Work: Newton, NJ - Sussex County -- Elevation 570 feet
Interests: weather, hiking, kayaking, math, science, current events, classic cars, and craft beer
#42
Posted 08 September 2018 - 05:30 PM

Carolinas better start preparing
WINTER OF 2018-2019
11/15/18 : 5.0"
1/18/19 : 0.5"
1/30/19 : 0.8"
2/12/19 : 1.8"
Total : 8.1"
11/15/18 : 5.0"
1/18/19 : 0.5"
1/30/19 : 0.8"
2/12/19 : 1.8"
Total : 8.1"
#43
Posted 08 September 2018 - 05:33 PM

#44
Posted 08 September 2018 - 05:49 PM

How will this storm effect Long Island??
#45
Posted 08 September 2018 - 06:53 PM

Outer Banks could get destroyed and I could barely see a cloud here that's how much of a difference there is. It's 6 hours away.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"
Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"
Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6
#46
Posted 08 September 2018 - 07:20 PM

#47
Posted 08 September 2018 - 08:57 PM

GFS has the storm sitting over eastern North Carolina for a couple of days and then moving up the coast to New England.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island
#48
Posted 08 September 2018 - 09:01 PM

It's interesting how slow the storm is now moving, almost stalled. Little things like this can make a big difference how it ultimately ends up affecting the east coast.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island
#49
Posted 08 September 2018 - 09:16 PM

Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"
Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"
Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6
#50
Posted 09 September 2018 - 07:37 AM

Euro and GFS in good agreement on future track of Florence at this time. Both show Florence making landfall over eastern NC and then stalling it there for days. Amazing rainfall totals are being shown on the modeling in that area with amounts as high as 35". Florence's impact in our area is currently believed to be confined to mostly rough surf and rip tides as modeling shows it to eventually move east or northeast and out to sea. However, there is still much uncertainty, as you would expect with a tropical system this many days out.
rockburnweather.com
West Milford NJ
West Milford NJ
#51
Posted 09 September 2018 - 09:11 AM

robbbs, on 09 September 2018 - 07:37 AM, said:
Euro and GFS in good agreement on future track of Florence at this time. Both show Florence making landfall over eastern NC and then stalling it there for days. Amazing rainfall totals are being shown on the modeling in that area with amounts as high as 35". Florence's impact in our area is currently believed to be confined to mostly rough surf and rip tides as modeling shows it to eventually move east or northeast and out to sea. However, there is still much uncertainty, as you would expect with a tropical system this many days out.
Yes still a lot of uncertainty. There has been a consistent hit on eastern North Carolina for a few days. I think that Florida and probably Georgia are being taken out as potential strikes. I think Virginia is becoming more in play.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island
#52
Posted 09 September 2018 - 09:53 AM

robbbs, on 09 September 2018 - 07:37 AM, said:
Euro and GFS in good agreement on future track of Florence at this time. Both show Florence making landfall over eastern NC and then stalling it there for days. Amazing rainfall totals are being shown on the modeling in that area with amounts as high as 35". Florence's impact in our area is currently believed to be confined to mostly rough surf and rip tides as modeling shows it to eventually move east or northeast and out to sea. However, there is still much uncertainty, as you would expect with a tropical system this many days out.
How much rain in our (your former) area? One day and out next weekend?
#53
Posted 09 September 2018 - 01:22 PM

#54
Posted 09 September 2018 - 01:22 PM

This looks really bad for NC coast.
WINTER OF 2018-2019
11/15/18 : 5.0"
1/18/19 : 0.5"
1/30/19 : 0.8"
2/12/19 : 1.8"
Total : 8.1"
11/15/18 : 5.0"
1/18/19 : 0.5"
1/30/19 : 0.8"
2/12/19 : 1.8"
Total : 8.1"
#55
Posted 09 September 2018 - 02:03 PM

NHC stating major hurricane impacts for NC/VA becoming likely.
Models mostly in agreement, landfall between Wilmington and Ocracoke/Cape Hatteras areas. And a several day stall.
Bryan - what are you thinking for your area? I understand you are slightly more inland...
Models mostly in agreement, landfall between Wilmington and Ocracoke/Cape Hatteras areas. And a several day stall.
Bryan - what are you thinking for your area? I understand you are slightly more inland...
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY
Work: Middletown, NY
#56
Posted 09 September 2018 - 03:23 PM

GFS continues to show Florence not making landfall. Instead it stalls just off Cape Hatteras. That scenario would pummel the outer banks.
rockburnweather.com
West Milford NJ
West Milford NJ
#57
Posted 09 September 2018 - 03:38 PM

Do you guys think she will ride up the coast affecting our area?
#58
Posted 09 September 2018 - 03:59 PM

#59
Posted 09 September 2018 - 04:20 PM

Nymet54, on 09 September 2018 - 03:38 PM, said:
Do you guys think she will ride up the coast affecting our area?
Not likely. There’s a very strong block, to the extent that Florence even stalls over or near NC until it’s eventually kicked out. As metsfan said, however, you never know especially this far out in time.
rockburnweather.com
West Milford NJ
West Milford NJ
#60
Posted 09 September 2018 - 06:58 PM

18z GFS shows an incredible 54" of rain falling over eastern NC.
rockburnweather.com
West Milford NJ
West Milford NJ
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