208 replies to this topic

[gpsnavigator]

It looks like it has a large area of bath water to travel over too.

[metfan4life]

Carolinas better start preparing

[NYCSNOWMAN]

metfan4life, on 08 September 2018 - 05:30 PM, said:

Carolinas better start preparing

i strongly agree

[Nymet54]

How will this storm effect Long Island??

[satellite_eyes]

Outer Banks could get destroyed and I could barely see a cloud here that's how much of a difference there is. It's 6 hours away.

[metfan4life]

Nymet54, on 08 September 2018 - 05:49 PM, said:

How will this storm effect Long Island??

Nothing right now

[weatherbowl]

GFS has the storm sitting over eastern North Carolina for a couple of days and then moving up the coast to New England.

[weatherbowl]

It's interesting how slow the storm is now moving, almost stalled. Little things like this can make a big difference how it ultimately ends up affecting the east coast.

[satellite_eyes]

This takes into account latest recon data

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[robbbs]

Euro and GFS in good agreement on future track of Florence at this time. Both show Florence making landfall over eastern NC and then stalling it there for days. Amazing rainfall totals are being shown on the modeling in that area with amounts as high as 35". Florence's impact in our area is currently believed to be confined to mostly rough surf and rip tides as modeling shows it to eventually move east or northeast and out to sea. However, there is still much uncertainty, as you would expect with a tropical system this many days out.

[weatherbowl]

robbbs, on 09 September 2018 - 07:37 AM, said:

Euro and GFS in good agreement on future track of Florence at this time. Both show Florence making landfall over eastern NC and then stalling it there for days. Amazing rainfall totals are being shown on the modeling in that area with amounts as high as 35". Florence's impact in our area is currently believed to be confined to mostly rough surf and rip tides as modeling shows it to eventually move east or northeast and out to sea. However, there is still much uncertainty, as you would expect with a tropical system this many days out.

Yes still a lot of uncertainty. There has been a consistent hit on eastern North Carolina for a few days. I think that Florida and probably Georgia are being taken out as potential strikes. I think Virginia is becoming more in play.

[Ehop]

robbbs, on 09 September 2018 - 07:37 AM, said:

Euro and GFS in good agreement on future track of Florence at this time. Both show Florence making landfall over eastern NC and then stalling it there for days. Amazing rainfall totals are being shown on the modeling in that area with amounts as high as 35". Florence's impact in our area is currently believed to be confined to mostly rough surf and rip tides as modeling shows it to eventually move east or northeast and out to sea. However, there is still much uncertainty, as you would expect with a tropical system this many days out.

How much rain in our (your former) area? One day and out next weekend?

[metfan4life]

Ehop, on 09 September 2018 - 09:53 AM, said:

How much rain in our (your former) area? One day and out next weekend?

We don't know if the storm will even reach up here after it stalls

[metfan4life]

This looks really bad for NC coast.

[weathergeek87]

NHC stating major hurricane impacts for NC/VA becoming likely.
Models mostly in agreement, landfall between Wilmington and Ocracoke/Cape Hatteras areas. And a several day stall.

Bryan - what are you thinking for your area? I understand you are slightly more inland...

[robbbs]

GFS continues to show Florence not making landfall. Instead it stalls just off Cape Hatteras. That scenario would pummel the outer banks.

[Nymet54]

Do you guys think she will ride up the coast affecting our area?

[metfan4life]

Nymet54, on 09 September 2018 - 03:38 PM, said:

Do you guys think she will ride up the coast affecting our area?

No as of right now but things can change

[robbbs]

Nymet54, on 09 September 2018 - 03:38 PM, said:

Do you guys think she will ride up the coast affecting our area?

Not likely. There’s a very strong block, to the extent that Florence even stalls over or near NC until it’s eventually kicked out. As metsfan said, however, you never know especially this far out in time.

[robbbs]

18z GFS shows an incredible 54" of rain falling over eastern NC.