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Michael


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#1
thundersleet

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With Tropical Storm Michael strengthening, I think it's time to start a thread on the storm.

There are two things worth following for Michael, with this board. First, there's the U.S. landfall, and second, there's the potential impact in our area.

With U.S. landfall, a lot of the thinking is that Michael will make landfall somewhere on the Florida Panhandle as a hurricane. There is actually a lot of consensus about that. The big question at this point is whether the National Hurricane Center is right in saying that the wind shear around Michael will be low in the next couple days. If so...it wouldn't surprise me to see Michael rapidly intensify. If not, I expect any intensification to be slow.

As for us, quite a bit of modeling takes Michael (or what's left of it) towards our area. Michael may give us a heavy (albeit short-duration) rain event later this week.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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#2
metfan4life

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Glad you made this thread

The models are starting to get stronger with Michael as it heads to the Florida Panhandle. I think this might be a Cat 1 just before it makes landfall.

For our area, we have to see how fast the storm moves and how fast the trough moves. That will decide what the impacts will be for our area.
WINTER OF 2018-2019

11/15/18 : 5.0"

#3
weatherbowl

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Seems to be intensifying faster than expected. Would not be surprised to see at least a Cat 2 at landfall.
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#4
thundersleet

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View Postweatherbowl, on 07 October 2018 - 07:18 PM, said:

Seems to be intensifying faster than expected. Would not be surprised to see at least a Cat 2 at landfall.

WB-One of the hurricane models has Michael getting to a Cat 4. Granted, this model has been discounted as an outlier, but strengthening to a Cat 2 is definitely very possible.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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#5
weatherbowl

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Quite a difference between the Euro and GFS as far as the speed of Michael. As of midnight on Thursday (techically Friday morning) the Euro has it over Georgia and the GFS has it over Chesapeake Bay.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#6
metfan4life

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The last hurricane to hit the Panhandle was Opal. We all know how that following winter was .

JB

"Years with tropical cyclones coming up into the gulf in October and having impact are signal for cold December in many cases. Why? MJO phases that help with tropical cyclones can show up again in December and they are cold phases for US at that time of the year"
WINTER OF 2018-2019

11/15/18 : 5.0"

#7
thundersleet

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View Postweatherbowl, on 08 October 2018 - 09:06 AM, said:

Quite a difference between the Euro and GFS as far as the speed of Michael. As of midnight on Thursday (techically Friday morning) the Euro has it over Georgia and the GFS has it over Chesapeake Bay.

Yep and the National Hurricane Center has been talking about those vast differences in storm speed. The speed of Michael here will help determine the timing and intensity of Michael in the mid-Atlantic through our area.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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Let's go Mets!

#8
thundersleet

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View Postmetfan4life, on 08 October 2018 - 09:21 AM, said:

The last hurricane to hit the Panhandle was Opal. We all know how that following winter was .

JB

"Years with tropical cyclones coming up into the gulf in October and having impact are signal for cold December in many cases. Why? MJO phases that help with tropical cyclones can show up again in December and they are cold phases for US at that time of the year "

Ummm Dennis?
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets!
Let's go Mets!

#9
thundersleet

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I highly recommend Tropical Tidbits as a go-to source of information on Michael and other systems. They have so much: models, aircraft recon, video analyses of storms that are a threat, and much more. I highly recommend it, and it may also be useful to us in the winter with some of the models too. They had a good video tonight breaking down the status of Michael as well as factors that may change its track. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets!
Let's go Mets!

#10
metfan4life

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View Postthundersleet, on 08 October 2018 - 07:28 PM, said:

I highly recommend Tropical Tidbits as a go-to source of information on Michael and other systems. They have so much: models, aircraft recon, video analyses of storms that are a threat, and much more. I highly recommend it, and it may also be useful to us in the winter with some of the models too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

I use tidbits for tropical systems

I subscribe to stormvista during the winter
WINTER OF 2018-2019

11/15/18 : 5.0"

#11
thundersleet

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With the last advisory, pressure dropped from 978 mb to 970 mb (in three hours). It'll be interesting to see if that level of pressure dropping continues. If so, it may be a sign of rapid intensification to come.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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Let's go Mets!

#12
thundersleet

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View Postmetfan4life, on 08 October 2018 - 07:29 PM, said:

I use tidbits for tropical systems

I subscribe to stormvista during the winter

Yeah Tidbits is pretty good.

EDIT: The person who runs Tropical Tidbits is a graduate student in meteorology at Florida State. Just listening to his analyses and seeing everything he puts together, this guy has a really bright future. https://twitter.com/...7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets!
Let's go Mets!

#13
weathergeek87

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This is going to be a surprisingly strong hit for the FL panhandle.
This thing came out of nowhere and now looks like a solid Cat 3 as it approaches the coast between Pensacola and Appalachacola.
The big bend of the FL coast will have rough storm surge as the geography will pool water and push it far inland.
Rough 3 days coming up for the Gulf Coast
Hamburg, NJ (Sussex County)

#14
thundersleet

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Michael does not have that "healthy hurricane" look yet...I don't see much of an eyewall yet. In the last couple frames, it looks like it's trying to develop an eyewall, but it's not fully formed yet. Based on the quick decrease in pressure, I wouldn't be surprised if that changes in the coming hours though.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets!
Let's go Mets!

#15
Mike_The_Golfer

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up 110 mph. should be a cat 3 by next advisory.
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#16
wxwatcher

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Amazing that Michael is so strong has been dealing with dry air mixing in the whole time. If that stops, might see an even stronger storm.

#17
thundersleet

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View Postwxwatcher, on 09 October 2018 - 03:56 PM, said:

Amazing that Michael is so strong has been dealing with dry air mixing in the whole time. If that stops, might see an even stronger storm.

And high wind shear too: http://tropic.ssec.w...shr&zoom=&time=
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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Let's go Mets!

#18
thundersleet

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Apparently recent Air Force recon reported surface winds above 140: http://tropicalatlan...l&product=sonde

If there is any validity to this information, Michael might jump to a Category 4 with the next advisory.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets!
Let's go Mets!

#19
wxwatcher

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The eye is clearing out, storm wrapping around May indeed be a cat 4.

#20
weathergeek87

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Cat 4
Devastating hit coming for coastal FL panhandle
Hamburg, NJ (Sussex County)





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