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Michael


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#21
thundersleet

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Just 72 hours ago, this was a tropical depression. Just 48 hours ago, this was a tropical storm. Just 24 hours ago, this was a Cat 1. That all just puts into perspective how rapidly Michael has intensified.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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#22
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https://www.iweather...-north-atlantic

#23
thundersleet

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Between the 4 and 7 am Central Time advisories, Michael's pressure dropped 10 mb.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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#24
satellite_eyes

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Crazy how both Florence and now Michael will pass within 50 miles of Charlotte, if not less. Expecting 30-40 mph winds and 3-6" rain here. Not terrible but I think schools will be closed and it will pack a punch as it quickly moves through.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"

Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6

#25
metfan4life

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Michael is now sub 930

This very close to a cat 5.
Anthony

#26
jfar57

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still getting stronger. Winds up to 150mph and has a while before landfall
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#27
vascudave

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local
https://weartv.com/watch

#28
wxwatcher

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Pressure now down to 919mb if it holds till landfall. Lowest since Camille in 1969...

#29
thundersleet

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View Postjfar57, on 10 October 2018 - 11:44 AM, said:

still getting stronger. Winds up to 150mph and has a while before landfall

Not really. The northern eyewall is just east of Panama City. We will probably get an advisory from the National Hurricane Center next hour (if not before) saying that the storm has made landfall.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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#30
thundersleet

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Since Michael is stronger than they expected, I wonder if areas that weren't expected to get storm surge (and therefore didn't evacuate) will now get storm surge. That's one of the things I'm most concerned about here.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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#31
jfar57

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View Postthundersleet, on 10 October 2018 - 12:14 PM, said:

Since Michael is stronger than they expected, I wonder if areas that weren't expected to get storm surge (and therefore didn't evacuate) will now get storm surge. That's one of the things I'm most concerned about here.
If I heard correctly, Jeff Smith showed a graphic that suggests surge could go many miles inland. (I think he said 9!)
Randolph NJ

#32
weathergeek87

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Just under Cat 5 strength, could be a Cat 5 @ 4pm update. Or was that 2pm?

Either way, devastating blow to the FL panhandle and up into GA
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
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#33
weathergeek87

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View Postthundersleet, on 10 October 2018 - 12:14 PM, said:

Since Michael is stronger than they expected, I wonder if areas that weren't expected to get storm surge (and therefore didn't evacuate) will now get storm surge. That's one of the things I'm most concerned about here.

What's incredible is how rapidly this system went from an unorganized mess inbetween Cancun and Cuba to this...
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
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#34
weathergeek87

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Looking at this storm, this one will be studied for years to come. This is the type of signature we typically see hitting the Philippeans.
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
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#35
Mike_The_Golfer

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Thank goodness this thing is on its horse and will be hitting it with the whip so it's not a prolonged event. It could be off the NC coast in only about 30 hours from now.
You're only young once, but you have your whole life to be immature!

#36
satellite_eyes

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I'm surprised NWS is only calling for 10-15 mph winds and some gusts to 30 for me. Seems low. Rain looks like 3-6" though.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"

Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6

#37
weatherbowl

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Little town of Mexico Beach just southeast of Panama City probably got the worst of Michael. I'm sure a lot of destruction there.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#38
thundersleet

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View PostMike_The_Golfer, on 10 October 2018 - 03:01 PM, said:

Thank goodness this thing is on its horse and will be hitting it with the whip so it's not a prolonged event. It could be off the NC coast in only about 30 hours from now.

It's a mixed bag. On one hand it means that the flooding from rain won't be as bad as Florence, but on the other hand we will likely see wind damage much further inland because of the quick-moving nature of Michael.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets!
Let's go Mets!

#39
thundersleet

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View Postweathergeek87, on 10 October 2018 - 02:28 PM, said:

Looking at this storm, this one will be studied for years to come. This is the type of signature we typically see hitting the Philippeans.

Yes indeed. Intensity forecasts got this badly wrong...a few days ago this was never expected to hit as a hurricane. We need to study storms like Michael in order to figure out how to improve intensity forecasts.

We also need to study what fueled Michael. For most of the storm's duration it fought wind shear and/or dry air yet it rapidly intensified in spite of those issues.
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets!
Let's go Mets!

#40
weathergeek87

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View Postweatherbowl, on 10 October 2018 - 03:49 PM, said:

Little town of Mexico Beach just southeast of Panama City probably got the worst of Michael. I'm sure a lot of destruction there.

Looks like how Homestead was after Andrew. Everything leveled.
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
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