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Nor Easter this weekend


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#1
metfan4life

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Models are showing a coastal storm for this weekend with mostly rain for everyone with a chance of snow well inland
We still don't know yet the exact track and srength.
Anthony

#2
weathergeek87

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Euro putting out snow for NW NJ higher elevations and points further NW. Climo favors inland higher elevations. We've had snow accumulate in October before.
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
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#3
satellite_eyes

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I think something is bound to happen this thing has been on the models for quite a while now. GFS is pretty well blocked up and shows a series of coastals. The final one is too close and may turn any snow to rain. Then everything is moving so slowly there could be snow showers on the back side for a few days. Looks very interesting to track.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"

Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6

#4
weathergeek87

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Sat - and it's true Miller A potential too.
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#5
OrangeCountyWeather06

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Been hearing about this for over a week now. It’s definitely been on models for a while now I’m surprised a thread hasn’t been made days ago.
Cornwall NY

#6
metfan4life

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This looks all rain for everyone
Anthony

#7
nyrangers1022

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View Postmetfan4life, on 23 October 2018 - 05:10 AM, said:

This looks all rain for everyone


I hope so. The last big October snowstorm did so much damage. Leaves still on trees, 8+ inches of wet snow took them down left and right. Power out for over a week, roads closed every where. We don't need that

#8
satellite_eyes

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yeh honestly snow showers or flurries are one thing but I saw what those Oct storms did. I would not want one. Save the snow for later on. Besides Oct snows have usually been followed by lame winters it seems like as someone already mentioned.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"

Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6

#9
wishcast_hater

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View Postsatellite_eyes, on 23 October 2018 - 07:07 AM, said:

yeh honestly snow showers or flurries are one thing but I saw what those Oct storms did. I would not want one. Save the snow for later on. Besides Oct snows have usually been followed by lame winters it seems like as someone already mentioned.

You beat me to it, Yes early snows seem to produce warm / lame winters.
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#10
weathergeek87

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Bring on a weekend snowstorm!!!!! :-)
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#11
JursyGurl

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So, looking for your best guess... I’m driving down the coast Friday to eastern NC... does anyone care to share their best guess as to the approximate timing of this storm? Maybe how strong the winds could get, where and when, as it’s heading up the coast?

I’m nervous about driving our 38’ motorhome (it’s a bear in the wind) in a potential nor’easter... mostly, though, I’m worried about if/when the storm might be passing near the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel and being made to wait out the storm in the parking lot... sometimes, they don’t let high profile vehicles cross in storms.

Any help would be appreciated.
Ringwood, NJ

#12
weatherbowl

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The latest models show a nor'easter but not exceptionally strong, passing over or just inland of the coast Saturday.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#13
satellite_eyes

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Jursygurl things look to go downhill as the day goes on on Friday. The earlier you can hit it the better I would say. Wouldn't call this a strong nor-easter but still a nor-easter.

Obviously the model runs have gotten warmer and warmer so snow doesn't look to be an issue for inland areas anymore. Even the Monday storm looks weaker and warmer. Models show a very active Jetstream for the next few weeks though although the trough sets up farther west it looks like.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"

Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6

#14
thundersleet

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One of the pieces to this nor'easter is former Hurricane Willa in the East Pacific. Which makes me wonder...how often have we been influenced (even indirectly) by Pacific hurricanes? It just seems weird that we're getting a piece of a former Pacific hurricane...
Carlisle, PA is about 20 miles west-southwest of Harrisburg

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#15
weathergeek87

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View Postthundersleet, on 24 October 2018 - 12:32 PM, said:

One of the pieces to this nor'easter is former Hurricane Willa in the East Pacific. Which makes me wonder...how often have we been influenced (even indirectly) by Pacific hurricanes? It just seems weird that we're getting a piece of a former Pacific hurricane...

Sounds rare but looks like this is happening because of an active southern jet. If we can keep this jet going with cold air available we may be setting ourselves up for a early start to winter snows.
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#16
JursyGurl

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Thank you, Sat and WB! Unfortunately, I’m sick (thought it was allergies; but, got much worse today - turns out it was my grand kids’ cold virus)... so, we wait (can’t bring nasty kid germs to my 92 yo parents.)

Figure I’ll be germ-free enough to to drive down Sunday - if the weather allows... where’s this Monday storm coming from? Please, don’t tell me it’s another coastal storm heading north?
Ringwood, NJ

#17
satellite_eyes

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Hope you feel better. The Monday storm isn't that big. Looks almost like a clipper type storm to me.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"

Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6

#18
JursyGurl

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Good, thanks.
Ringwood, NJ

#19
weathergeek87

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Hoping this is a sign of things to come with this Miller A.

By the way, NWS Mt. Holly saying areas above 1000' elevation in Sussex County could start off as snow on Friday night
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#20
weathergeek87

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With the 2pm update, Mt. Holly has removed its mention of onset higher elevations snows.
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY





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