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DECEMBER WEATHER


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#1
NYCSNOWMAN

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Sorry, to rush things ..but Im.curious to see what December's pattern evolves into..
Rob
God Bless America
"WATING FOR WINTERS FURY"
Fleetwood, NY

#2
TatamyPA

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My rule with the models is if it’s beyond 168 hours it’s likely to be “model fantasy.” There seems to be a lot of speculation in some places about potentially significant events that will occur in December. We all know what the weeklies were showing for November and how that worked out. I would not get too invested in these potential events for December until later next week. A lot of people who ignore the model fantasy rule may be setting themselves up to be disappointed... Just my two cents.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
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#3
carribeanpirate

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View PostTatamyPA, on 21 November 2018 - 12:35 PM, said:

My rule with the models is if it’s beyond 168 hours it’s likely to be “model fantasy.” There seems to be a lot of speculation in some places about potentially significant events that will occur in December. We all know what the weeklies were showing for November and how that worked out. I would not get too invested in these potential events for December until later next week. A lot of people who ignore the model fantasy rule may be setting themselves up to be disappointed... Just my two cents.

I agree and if I posted this would usually met with “it’s a weather board, if you don’t like it leave! “

But I agree it’s all fantasy at this point, especially the time of the year.

#4
TatamyPA

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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 22 November 2018 - 12:15 PM, said:



I agree and if I posted this would usually met with “it’s a weather board, if you don’t like it leave! “

But I agree it’s all fantasy at this point, especially the time of the year.
It really amazes me that there is so much speculation in some places about storms projected for December. It is one thing to discuss overall patterns but focusing on specific events 10 or more days out is really just fantasy. FWIW last weeks event showed up in the op models 7 days prior. When the models started focusing in on snow amounts in the 24 hours prior to the start of the event they were ignored as being too high. The night before numerous model runs started calling for 8-10” for my area. The NWS called for 1-3”. I got 10”. I received a Winter Storm Warning on my phone as was standing on my back deck photographing the arrival of a wall of snow signifying the start of the event. I understand that nobody wants to overstate snow amounts however I do not feel that this was handled well at all.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#5
TatamyPA

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FWIW today’s GEFS/EFS 12z ensembles are showing zonal flow for the first week of December. This coming week still looks cold however the pattern for the first week of December looks mild for us at this time.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#6
metfan4life

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View PostTatamyPA, on 22 November 2018 - 06:45 PM, said:

FWIW today’s GEFS/EFS 12z ensembles are showing zonal flow for the first week of December. This coming week still looks cold however the pattern for the first week of December looks mild for us at this time.

I don't see how it will be mild with the nao and AO negative and a good deal of blocking. Watch for a storm along the coast during the 1st week of December.
WINTER OF 2018-2019

11/15/18 : 5.0"

#7
TatamyPA

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 metfan4life, on 22 November 2018 - 08:59 PM, said:



I don't see how it will be mild with the nao and AO negative and a good deal of blocking. Watch for a storm along the coast during the 1st week of December.
You’re going to need help from the Pacific to get that storm and right now that is not there.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#8
metfan4life

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 TatamyPA, on 23 November 2018 - 04:29 AM, said:


You’re going to need help from the Pacific to get that storm and right now that is not there.

The Pacific isn't that bad but the models are not showing it. Plenty of meteorologists are on board with a east coast snow event in the 1st week of December but the models are not showing anything.
WINTER OF 2018-2019

11/15/18 : 5.0"

#9
satellite_eyes

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Yeh to me even a week ago the models were showing a zonal pattern more than anything. I didn’t really seeing anything drastic as far as cold or warm.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"

Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6

#10
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 metfan4life, on 23 November 2018 - 05:34 AM, said:



The Pacific isn't that bad but the models are not showing it. Plenty of meteorologists are on board with a east coast snow event in the 1st week of December but the models are not showing anything.

Rare when meteorologists are on board with no model support.

#11
moleson

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 thundercrack, on 23 November 2018 - 09:14 AM, said:



Rare when meteorologists are on board with no model support.

Metfan is referring to the “meteorologists” that post on another other board (njstrong) he posts on.

A lot of the stuff metfan posts on here is taken from that groups “leaders”. Nothing but wishcasters and model huggers.
Anthony M.

#12
metfan4life

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 moleson, on 23 November 2018 - 09:31 AM, said:



Metfan is referring to the “meteorologists” that post on another other board (njstrong) he posts on.

A lot of the stuff metfan posts on here is taken from that groups “leaders”. Nothing but wishcasters and model huggers.

Not all are from that forum and if there were , they arent model huggers or wishcasters.
WINTER OF 2018-2019

11/15/18 : 5.0"

#13
metfan4life

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 thundercrack, on 23 November 2018 - 09:14 AM, said:



Rare when meteorologists are on board with no model support.


The upcoming pattern supports it. Not all good patterns will have snow with it. There are other factors.
WINTER OF 2018-2019

11/15/18 : 5.0"

#14
TatamyPA

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 moleson, on 23 November 2018 - 09:31 AM, said:



Metfan is referring to the “meteorologists” that post on another other board (njstrong) he posts on.

A lot of the stuff metfan posts on here is taken from that groups “leaders”. Nothing but wishcasters and model huggers.
Actually some of them trade in the energy markets. Changes in the weather patterns have big time ramifications in the energy markets with major impacts on oil and natural gas prices. These guys watch the model runs very carefully and make trade decisions accordingly. A change to a colder pattern in this part of the country can spike those prices and that is how these guys make their money. Some of these people have hidden agendas when they plug these events showing up in Operational model runs 10 - 14 days out. That is why we like to put more weight on the ensembles at that range.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#15
metfan4life

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Well the good pattern that people were talking about in early December is not going to happen.

All the models have a warm-up in the east thanks to the pna ridge breaking down in the west.

I'm fine with this because winter doesn't really get started in our area until mid to late December anyway.
WINTER OF 2018-2019

11/15/18 : 5.0"

#16
winterbird04

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View Postmetfan4life, on 24 November 2018 - 06:58 AM, said:

Well the good pattern that people were talking about in early December is not going to happen.

All the models have a warm-up in the east thanks to the pna ridge breaking down in the west.

I'm fine with this because winter doesn't really get started in our area until mid to late December anyway.
I certainly hope that is not a sign of things to come.
Go EAGLES, PHILLIES AND FLYERS


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#17
nyrangers1022

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View Postwinterbird04, on 24 November 2018 - 08:36 AM, said:


I certainly hope that is not a sign of things to come.

I hope it is. Why be in your house for 4 months straight being it's way to cold to do anything. I don't mind a little snow here and there

#18
metfan4life

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View Postnyrangers1022, on 24 November 2018 - 09:05 AM, said:



I hope it is. Why be in your house for 4 months straight being it's way to cold to do anything. I don't mind a little snow here and there

It's called winter lol
WINTER OF 2018-2019

11/15/18 : 5.0"

#19
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View Postmetfan4life, on 24 November 2018 - 09:18 AM, said:



It's called winter lol


You can still do things outside when it's sunny and 40. Not high temperatures in the low 20s and a stiff NW wind

#20
metfan4life

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View Postnyrangers1022, on 24 November 2018 - 09:21 AM, said:

You can still do things outside when it's sunny and 40. Not high temperatures in the low 20s and a stiff NW wind

I don't really like the cold anymore.

40s are fine for me but I love snow
WINTER OF 2018-2019

11/15/18 : 5.0"





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