Jump to content

Winter Storm Harper (1/ 19-20/19 )


403 replies to this topic

#1
metfan4life

  • Members
  • 28,838 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Brooklyn,NY
Models are all showing a big storm hitting the area Saturday night into Sunday with a mixed bag of precipation near the coast and a big plowable snowstorm for the interior. The track is still up in the air.

A little more south and the city could see more snow and a little more north and the city will see more rain.

Right now we have the Nam, Ukie , Icon and Euro with a very close call for an ice storm for the coast and the immediate suburbs. The gfs and cmc have a rainstorm up to NYS with temps in the 40s.

The trend this winter has been for the polar vortex to push storms further south so I wouldn't be shocked to see this happen here but this storm isn't going to miss.

If we do want a flatter and colder storm ( all snow ), the polar vortex can't phase in with the storm. The more separation the better for our area in terms of frozen precip.

The other big story will be the cold temps after this storm. Temps Sunday night will be below 0 and single digits for many of the area so a hard freeze will happen.

Happy Tracking
Anthony

#2
weathergeek87

  • Moderators
  • 10,245 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hamburg, NJ
  • Hamburg
  • NJ

View Postmetfan4life, on 17 January 2019 - 06:45 AM, said:

Models are all showing a big storm hitting the area Saturday night into Sunday with a mixed bag of precipation near the coast and a big plowable snowstorm for the interior. The track is still up in the air.

A little more south and the city could see more snow and a little more north and the city will see more rain.

Right now we have the Nam, Ukie , Icon and Euro with a very close call for an ice storm for the coast and the immediate suburbs. The gfs and cmc have a rainstorm up to NYS with temps in the 40s.

The trend this winter has been for the polar vortex to push storms further south so I wouldn't be shocked to see this happen here but this storm isn't going to miss.

If we do want a flatter and colder storm ( all snow ), the polar vortex can't phase in with the storm. The more separation the better for our area in terms of frozen precip.

The other big story will be the cold temps after this storm. Temps Sunday night will be below 0 and single digits for many of the area so a hard freeze will happen.

Happy Tracking

Way to kick it off Ant ó honestly praying for minimal ice. Bring on the snow. We will see.
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#3
okterrific83

  • Members
  • 379 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Clifton, NJ
Saw Jeff Smith's morning forecast. Only has me with an inch or two in NE NJ before a washout. :-/

#4
TatamyPA

  • Members
  • 6,385 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Bethlehem, PA - elevation - 400'
  • Bethlehem
  • PA
12z Icon is a big hit with snow across the area with a another wave of SLP bringing a backend hit of snow Sunday night. Everyone goes to rain or ice during the day Sunday before new area of SLP forms off the Jersey and brings us all a few inches Sunday night.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#5
TatamyPA

  • Members
  • 6,385 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Bethlehem, PA - elevation - 400'
  • Bethlehem
  • PA
12z GFS continues with its front end thump Saturday night and then a change to rain and ice. Over the last couple of runs the model is hitting harder on the idea of backend snows Sunday night.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#6
TatamyPA

  • Members
  • 6,385 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Bethlehem, PA - elevation - 400'
  • Bethlehem
  • PA
12z CMC is slightly warmer and has a front end thump to the north and west. Coastal areas go to rain. Inland areas also go to rain however I strongly suspect that the model is under doing the cold air damming and has surface temperatures that are too high. This model does not have very much back end snow.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#7
nyrangers1022

  • Members
  • 1,716 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:cornwall on hudson, NY (orange county )
Seems like the Nam wants to shut down precipitation by noon sunday

#8
weatherbowl

  • Members
  • 10,437 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Eastern Nassau County
  • Levittown
  • NY
12z GFS is more south than earlier run. It had the low in Connecticut this morning to just south of Long Island on latest run. So it looks like a general trend south, although not by a lot) does continue.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#9
TatamyPA

  • Members
  • 6,385 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Bethlehem, PA - elevation - 400'
  • Bethlehem
  • PA
12z Ukmet is warmer than previous runs. Like the other models we get a front end thump and then go to rain on the coast and snow inland.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#10
TatamyPA

  • Members
  • 6,385 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Bethlehem, PA - elevation - 400'
  • Bethlehem
  • PA

View Postweatherbowl, on 17 January 2019 - 12:25 PM, said:

12z GFS is more south than earlier run. It had the low in Connecticut this morning to just south of Long Island on latest run. So it looks like a general trend south, although not by a lot) does continue.
At this point the significance of the track of SLP relates mostly to whether colder air continues to get held in near the surface especially inland. Most will start off as some snow and then go to rain. First along the coast and then inland. In this scenario inland areas can get a nice dump of 3-6Ē. They then go to ice while the coast rains. There will be no all snow event in our region with this event- itís not happening. At this rate I think you will need to be in northern PA and upstate NY north of I88 to see all snow. The models donít show that now but I believe that is what this evolves to.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#11
Nymet54

  • Members
  • 186 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Bethpage NY
  • Ny

View PostTatamyPA, on 17 January 2019 - 12:44 PM, said:


At this point the significance of the track of SLP relates mostly to whether colder air continues to get held in near the surface especially inland. Most will start off as some snow and then go to rain. First along the coast and then inland. In this scenario inland areas can get a nice dump of 3-6Ē. They then go to ice while the coast rains. There will be no all snow event in our region with this event- itís not happening. At this rate I think you will need to be in northern PA and upstate NY north of I88 to see all snow. The models donít show that now but I believe that is what this evolves to.
is that your final call? Things will and can change

#12
Ehop

  • Members
  • 629 posts
  • Location:Summit, NJ
could care a less about how much snow, that ice scares me and with frigid temps afterwards, any power outages will be a disaster

#13
weatherbowl

  • Members
  • 10,437 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Eastern Nassau County
  • Levittown
  • NY

View PostEhop, on 17 January 2019 - 01:07 PM, said:

could care a less about how much snow, that ice scares me and with frigid temps afterwards, any power outages will be a disaster

Yes and the track of the low will have a big say on who gets that ice and how much. As TatamyPa mentioned it doesn't look like an all snow event for anyone in the immediate area.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#14
jimjesswill3

  • Members
  • 902 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Jim----Marshalls Creek PA(E. Stroudsburg)
  • Marshalls_Creek
  • PA
What are you going all weather channel on us now with the name of the thread?? can't stand that they name winter storms, drives me absolutely crazy
Jim-Marshalls Creek PA
41.0976 N 75.1217 W
Elevation 1099.1 feet

#15
TatamyPA

  • Members
  • 6,385 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Bethlehem, PA - elevation - 400'
  • Bethlehem
  • PA
12z Euro continues warmer. Basically no snow to speak of at the coast - just rain. Inland areas can still get a period of snow at the onset. Nearby inland locations can also go above freezing. Still a significant icing threat especially well inland.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#16
OrangeCountyWeather06

  • Members
  • 5,168 posts
  • Location:Cornwall NY
  • Cornwall
  • NY

View PostTatamyPA, on 17 January 2019 - 01:19 PM, said:

12z Euro continues warmer. Basically no snow to speak of at the coast - just rain. Inland areas can still get a period of snow at the onset. Nearby inland locations can also go above freezing. Still a significant icing threat especially well inland.

Ran the 00z Euro and the 12z Euro. Somehow despite showing trending warmer run it gave Orange Co a couple of more inches of snow on 12z than 00z. Lol.
Cornwall NY

#17
TatamyPA

  • Members
  • 6,385 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Bethlehem, PA - elevation - 400'
  • Bethlehem
  • PA

View PostNymet54, on 17 January 2019 - 12:59 PM, said:

is that your final call? Things will and can change
No this is not my final call. However I am sorry but I do not expect you will be plowing this one on the island.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#18
metfan4life

  • Members
  • 28,838 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Brooklyn,NY
This winter isn't going well for the NYC area. The polar vortex squashed the last 2 storms but it can't help us this weekend ?





Anthony

#19
metfan4life

  • Members
  • 28,838 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Brooklyn,NY

View PostTatamyPA, on 17 January 2019 - 01:24 PM, said:


No this is not my final call. However I am sorry but I do not expect you will be plowing this one on the island.

I agree
Anthony

#20
lawnboy11

  • Members
  • 68 posts
  • Location:11530
  • Garden City
  • NY

View PostTatamyPA, on 17 January 2019 - 01:24 PM, said:


No this is not my final call. However I am sorry but I do not expect you will be plowing this one on the island.

Do you guys think ill need to scrape up slush and salt for this storm on sun? Doing residential snow removal services in Nassau on l.i.
Thanks! You guys rule?





1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users