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Winter Storm Harper (1/ 19-20/19 )


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#41
jimjesswill3

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View PostTatamyPA, on 17 January 2019 - 05:06 PM, said:


There is the potential for up to 0.50” of ice. As of now that is subject to change based upon the storm track. I was considering a generator but am holding off for now.

I got a small Honda eu3000is inverter I could rig my heat and run a couple lights with that little baby it's as quiet as can be and if I need something more I'll borrow the generator from work it's a 7500 Watt and I could power a few more things if needed
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#42
TatamyPA

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18z update
GFS - snow arrives Saturday evening with a front end thump especially north and west. It then goes to ice. Coastal areas start off with some snow and quickly go to rain. All areas can see a short lived change back to snow before ending midday Sunday.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#43
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I think there is a possibility of all areas getting a nice thumping of snow, especially if it arrives early enough. If the low is way back over Kentucky or West Virginia and the snow moves in, maybe the southerly flow will not take hold until the low gets closer. By then several inches may fall, especially inland. However there is little doubt on the present track, the coast especially will warm up and turn to rain.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#44
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View PostTatamyPA, on 17 January 2019 - 05:18 PM, said:

18z update
GFS - snow arrives Saturday evening with a front end thump especially north and west. It then goes to ice. Coastal areas start off with some snow and quickly go to rain. All areas can see a short lived change back to snow before ending midday Sunday.

I am not really to impressed with qpf in the storm.
Going with 5 to max 8 of snow on my street.
Over to some sleet & frezing rain.
Highland Lakes, NJ
Elevation 1400 ft

#45
metfan4life

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View PostTatamyPA, on 17 January 2019 - 05:18 PM, said:

18z update
GFS - snow arrives Saturday evening with a front end thump especially north and west. It then goes to ice. Coastal areas start off with some snow and quickly go to rain. All areas can see a short lived change back to snow before ending midday Sunday.

Gfs is further east along with the ensembles

Temps don't get out of the 30s for nyc
Anthony

#46
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View Postmetfan4life, on 17 January 2019 - 06:14 PM, said:



Gfs is further east along with the ensembles

Temps don't get out of the 30s for nyc
im not saying nyc does not flip to rain but imo not gonna be a quick flip ..just my feeling..
Rob
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"WATING FOR WINTERS FURY"
Fleetwood, NY

#47
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I just hope we flip to sleet and not freezing rain

#48
pmgav

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View PostTatamyPA, on 17 January 2019 - 05:06 PM, said:


There is the potential for up to 0.50” of ice. As of now that is subject to change based upon the storm track. I was considering a generator but am holding off for now.

Thanks. Half an inch of ice will bring down lots of branches up here. FYI I bought a 7000 watt unit at the Home Depot in Phillipsburg. I’ll probably spend the better part of Saturday settling it up while praying I never have to use it.

#49
nyrangers1022

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Looked at qpf. Noticed Nam and GFS barely has an inch. Seems alot lower then what I would think. Unless the further SE track is killing QPF

#50
darkstar

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View Postnyrangers1022, on 17 January 2019 - 07:48 PM, said:

Looked at qpf. Noticed Nam and GFS barely has an inch. Seems alot lower then what I would think. Unless the further SE track is killing QPF

Fv3 gfs is juicy. Lollipop of qpf nw nnj over 2 inches is
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#51
weatherbowl

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I notice both the Nam and GFS have the low heading ENE from Kentucky to West Virginia and then a sudden shift SSE to lower Virginia, then heading NE. This is either a strange track or they are showing a transfer of energy to a second low. If it is a transfer of energy, where that develops could have a lot to say in the final results.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#52
nyrangers1022

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View Postdarkstar, on 17 January 2019 - 07:53 PM, said:



Fv3 gfs is juicy. Lollipop of qpf nw nnj over 2 inches is

That model has been on crack all winter

#53
TatamyPA

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0z NAM comes in colder. All areas get a front end thump of several inches Saturday evening before going to ice and sleet after midnight. Precip starts to taper off Sunday morning as SLP passes south of LI.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#54
darkstar

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View PostTatamyPA, on 17 January 2019 - 09:37 PM, said:

0z NAM comes in colder. All areas get a front end thump of several inches Saturday evening before going to ice and sleet after midnight. Precip starts to taper off Sunday morning as SLP passes south of LI.

Total qpf is not impressive.
Highland Lakes, NJ
Elevation 1400 ft

#55
OrangeCountyWeather06

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View PostTatamyPA, on 17 January 2019 - 09:37 PM, said:

0z NAM comes in colder. All areas get a front end thump of several inches Saturday evening before going to ice and sleet after midnight. Precip starts to taper off Sunday morning as SLP passes south of LI.

On the 12km it looks like 12”-18” everywhere including NYC.
Cornwall NY

#56
TatamyPA

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View PostOrangeCountyWeather06, on 17 January 2019 - 09:46 PM, said:



On the 12km it looks like 12”-18” everywhere including NYC.
No - that figure includes sleet. Actual accums on this run would be 2-5” in NYC and 3-6” across northern NJ with higher amounts to the north and west of there. Sleet amounts are counted as snow on the TT clown maps so snow amounts are greatly overstated.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#57
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View PostTatamyPA, on 17 January 2019 - 10:14 PM, said:


No - that figure includes sleet. Actual accums on this run would be 2-5” in NYC and 3-6” across northern NJ with higher amounts to the north and west of there. Sleet amounts are counted as snow on the TT clown maps so snow amounts are greatly overstated.

I was actually surprised it wasnt more snow with the shift south but just slows you how strong that warm push is
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snowfall
18-19= 31.8 ytd
17-18= 72
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#58
TatamyPA

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View Postrgwp96, on 17 January 2019 - 10:16 PM, said:



I was actually surprised it wasnt more snow with the shift south but just slows you how strong that warm push is
It’s that 850mb jet that will bring us our precip but unfortunately will bring warming as well.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
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#59
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View Postdarkstar, on 17 January 2019 - 09:42 PM, said:



Total qpf is not impressive.

1.5 -2 of precip isn’t impressive ?
Butler, New Jersey





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snowfall
18-19= 31.8 ytd
17-18= 72
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#60
metfan4life

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View PostTatamyPA, on 17 January 2019 - 10:21 PM, said:


It’s that 850mb jet that will bring us our precip but unfortunately will bring warming as well.

Surface looks cold on the nam and icon. Rgem also shifted south but not like the nam.
Anthony





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