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The total disaster that is called weather forecasting


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#1
jimjesswill3

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with the science and technology that we have today I feel weather forecasting should be getting easier to do, but at times it seems that we are stuck in the 80s. it's a crapshoot, nobody has a clue as to what is going to happen!!! it's getting a little frustrating. When will it be fixed
Jim-Marshalls Creek PA
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#2
carribeanpirate

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 jimjesswill3, on 20 January 2019 - 08:16 AM, said:

with the science and technology that we have today I feel weather forecasting should be getting easier to do, but at times it seems that we are stuck in the 80s. it's a crapshoot, nobody has a clue as to what is going to happen!!! it's getting a little frustrating. When will it be fixed

What is the incentive to improve? No one was hurt/killed, nothing was lost, mets shrug their shoulders and say "hey it could have been worse, we didnt get snow or ice". Until there is incentive to improve, there will be no improvement. Since I joined this board, I've said forecasting has not improved significantly in 20 years. I get flamed for it, but I stand by my statement.

#3
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 carribeanpirate, on 20 January 2019 - 09:22 AM, said:

What is the incentive to improve? No one was hurt/killed, nothing was lost, mets shrug their shoulders and say "hey it could have been worse, we didnt get snow or ice". Until there is incentive to improve, there will be no improvement. Since I joined this board, I've said forecasting has not improved significantly in 20 years. I get flamed for it, but I stand by my statement.

Because people on a board like this are much more knowledgable on weather than the general public, we can distinguish between a forecast bust and just plain bad forecasting. This event was a case of bad forecasting. No model support for their official forecast, bad read on the synoptic set-up, and slow to update when it was obvious their forecast was not going to verify. It was a very poor performance and, unfortunately and as you stated, there is no accountability. It's easy for forecasters to just shrug and say it's an inexact science and the public won't know any better when, in fact, it was poor forecasting.
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#4
rgwp96

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 carribeanpirate, on 20 January 2019 - 09:22 AM, said:



What is the incentive to improve? No one was hurt/killed, nothing was lost, mets shrug their shoulders and say "hey it could have been worse, we didnt get snow or ice". Until there is incentive to improve, there will be no improvement. Since I joined this board, I've said forecasting has not improved significantly in 20 years. I get flamed for it, but I stand by my statement.

Only ones that will give you crap are Mets themselves . Everyone else will somewhat agree with you . I was talking to Robbís two days ago and we both agreed the nws was going to high with amounts . Also this was a big win for the gfs . Euro sucked with his storm
Butler, New Jersey





Visit My weatherstation

snowfall
18-19= 16.3 ytd
17-18= 72
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#5
wishcast_hater

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Honestly I am quite tired of this elevated status we give to ďscientistsĒ and how we cannot question them or that they are the ďauthorityĒ, the be all and end all. The fact is they suck, they are constantly wrong or changing opinions 5, 10, 15 Years later. To see how poor weather forecasting still is and then dig ones heels in on a specific belief like climate change or global warming just blows my mind. We cannot get it right in the short term but we are going to legislate and spend billions on something that may not even be real.

Sorry Iím cranky, worked 16 hours, came home and shoveled, slept for 3 hours and then my kids woke me up.
Earth is not a spinning ball
Flat Earth Infrared Camera - Hundred of miles with no curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5RJhRNWCMo&t=608s
2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Can't have + Pressure against a vaccuum: https://www.youtube....suvdGYCY&t=500s
Astronauts on wires / Chromakey Technology: https://www.youtube....h?v=x6XeELc3QH8
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLltxIX4B8_URNUzDE2sXctnUAEXgEDDGn
http://www.atlantean...nning-ball.html
https://flatearthsci...t-earth-proofs/

#6
canisteerrd

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Man made global warming and climate change, is a big lie. Agree with you 100%. And so is flat Earth. Only a fool gets their knowledge and proof from YouTube.
Elev: 1217'

2012-2013 total snow: 67.0"
2013- 2014 total snow: 67.0"
2014-2015 total snow: 71.1"
2015-2016 total snow: 31"
2016-2017 total snow 61"
2017-2018 total snow: 84"
2018-2019 snow to date: 22.8"
Lowest temp this season: -7.6į 1/31/19

#7
wishcast_hater

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 canisteerrd, on 20 January 2019 - 06:59 PM, said:

Man made global warming and climate change, is a big lie. Agree with you 100%. And so is flat Earth. Only a fool gets their knowledge and proof from YouTube.

Ouch! Hey - I believed in the globe and I asked all the same questions and poked fun and called people idiots for believing in it. I became a flat earther because I tried disproving the globe. If you believe global warming is a manufactured lie and propaganda from our own government then why do you think it begins and ends with that? They lie about everything. Why would you trust them?
Iím not here to debate, Iím way too tired right now. Your more than welcome to PM me and mock me there. 😀

Why am i a fool to trust what the government tells me? No citizen has the money or resources to investigate there claims. You have to believe what they show you.
Earth is not a spinning ball
Flat Earth Infrared Camera - Hundred of miles with no curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5RJhRNWCMo&t=608s
2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Can't have + Pressure against a vaccuum: https://www.youtube....suvdGYCY&t=500s
Astronauts on wires / Chromakey Technology: https://www.youtube....h?v=x6XeELc3QH8
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLltxIX4B8_URNUzDE2sXctnUAEXgEDDGn
http://www.atlantean...nning-ball.html
https://flatearthsci...t-earth-proofs/

#8
weatherbowl

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View Postwishcast_hater, on 20 January 2019 - 08:20 PM, said:

Ouch! Hey - I believed in the globe and I asked all the same questions and poked fun and called people idiots for believing in it. I became a flat earther because I tried disproving the globe. If you believe global warming is a manufactured lie and propaganda from our own government then why do you think it begins and ends with that? They lie about everything. Why would you trust them?
I'm not here to debate, I'm way too tired right now. Your more than welcome to PM me and mock me there. ��

Why am i a fool to trust what the government tells me? No citizen has the money or resources to investigate there claims. You have to believe what they show you.

Actually when it comes to space travel that's not the case. We have private industry sending rockets into space and they also show pictures of the earth.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#9
jimjesswill3

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View Postwishcast_hater, on 20 January 2019 - 08:20 PM, said:



Ouch! Hey - I believed in the globe and I asked all the same questions and poked fun and called people idiots for believing in it. I became a flat earther because I tried disproving the globe. If you believe global warming is a manufactured lie and propaganda from our own government then why do you think it begins and ends with that? They lie about everything. Why would you trust them?
I’m not here to debate, I’m way too tired right now. Your more than welcome to PM me and mock me there. 😀

Why am i a fool to trust what the government tells me? No citizen has the money or resources to investigate there claims. You have to believe what they show you.

look through a telescope and you will see all the other planets in the solar system are round,what makes you think that our planet is any different?
Jim-Marshalls Creek PA
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Elevation 1099.1 feet

#10
wishcast_hater

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View Postjimjesswill3, on 24 January 2019 - 10:06 AM, said:



look through a telescope and you will see all the other planets in the solar system are round,what makes you think that our planet is any different?

Donít you think I asked every conceivable question before I threw in the towel for the globe? The heliocentric model is not compatible with flat earth model. The sun and moon are local and rotate above us. You will not accept this answer due to cognitive dissonance, I went through that as well

Based on your comment shouldnít a pool table will be round since all the cue balls are around? Shouldnít a basketball court be around since the ball is round ? There is no relation.

Every rocket makes an arc. Look at a time lapse video or picture. They are not going to space.
Earth is not a spinning ball
Flat Earth Infrared Camera - Hundred of miles with no curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5RJhRNWCMo&t=608s
2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Can't have + Pressure against a vaccuum: https://www.youtube....suvdGYCY&t=500s
Astronauts on wires / Chromakey Technology: https://www.youtube....h?v=x6XeELc3QH8
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLltxIX4B8_URNUzDE2sXctnUAEXgEDDGn
http://www.atlantean...nning-ball.html
https://flatearthsci...t-earth-proofs/

#11
weatherbowl

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The flat earth society knows many people cannot prove the earth is round. Why,because the flat earthers won't except the testimony of astronauts and those that have been in space. They disregard pictures as part of a conspiracy. This is how most people would show their proof. There is lots of proof for thousands of years by scientist but the flat earthers will argue with you forever. I guess I could argue that lets say, Alaska really isn' t there, because I haven't seen it. I don't believe the pictures or testimony of those that have been. So if we aren't going to believe testimony or pictures, not to mention scientific experiments, I guess you could say we don't know much about anything. If the flat earth society really believes what they say then prove it. Pool all your money and send up a rocket or even just a hot air balloon with a camera and show us pictures of the flat earth. You can get both flat earthers and those who disagree (we don't want a conspiracy theory) to send up a hot air balloon which go 50000 feet, take pictures and let the truth fall where it may. This is kind of a different perspective (rather than argue about proof) that I got from an article I read.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#12
wishcast_hater

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Your first mistake is that you consulted the flat Earth Society. That website is full of misinformation and is a fraud.

Second I defended the globe earth doctrine. I made all the same comments you did, I called it stupid but I put a lot of effort into debunking The claims of flat earth. I spent more than five minutes hearing their argument. Now I donít believe in the globe earth anymore.

Amateur weather balloons have been launched over 100,000 feet without fisheye lens. They show a flat earth. The problem is people donít realize The use of wide angle Lens distort video and images.

I have seen laser experiments over 15 miles showing the earth is flat. I have seen long-distance photography at sea level showing objects that should be hidden by curvature.

Recently I have seen infrared video showing images hundreds of miles away that should be hidden by curvature.

I have come to understand atmospheric compression which hides (AT TIMES but not all the time) the base of boats and the sea shore off in the distance.

I have also come to understand perspective which is important.

I donít just look at one video and Call it a day as many do, I have put time and effort into my research. Cognitive dissonance plays a big factor in dismissing flat earth and it took several months to overcome that.

The bottom line is I spent a lot of time hearing the other side. I did not dismiss it quickly. I did my research, I tried to debunk it. I have also seen over the years Google and YouTube which are the same company severely alter search results for those who are curious. They only show authorized content now, they wonít show true search results. There is censorship now which blocks true results making it difficult to find legitimate flat earth content.

There are many videos from globe proponents supposedly debunking flat earth and flat Earth proponents have gone through each claim one at a time dissecting them. I feel that the logic and arguments of flat earth are stronger.

I am not anti-science, I am all for science which involves testing, observing and repeating the results. There is science and there is scientism, unfortunately the two have been combined.
Earth is not a spinning ball
Flat Earth Infrared Camera - Hundred of miles with no curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5RJhRNWCMo&t=608s
2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Can't have + Pressure against a vaccuum: https://www.youtube....suvdGYCY&t=500s
Astronauts on wires / Chromakey Technology: https://www.youtube....h?v=x6XeELc3QH8
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLltxIX4B8_URNUzDE2sXctnUAEXgEDDGn
http://www.atlantean...nning-ball.html
https://flatearthsci...t-earth-proofs/

#13
carribeanpirate

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I think there is another thread dedicated to this, but honestly does it matter if the earth is round , flat, square or parallelogram? Itís meaningless as long as it supports life.

#14
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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 25 January 2019 - 04:53 AM, said:

I think there is another thread dedicated to this, but honestly does it matter if the earth is round , flat, square or parallelogram? It's meaningless as long as it supports life.
LOL
WAS Actually thinking....who gives a $h!T!!!????

#15
wishcast_hater

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The only reason it matters is that science tells us we are an accident. We are a small insignificant planet in a insignificant part of the Milky Way. We have no value we are cosmic blip. If the earth is flat and everything is contained within the heavens then that raises some serious questions. The only reason I responded is because people make comments and ask questions.
Earth is not a spinning ball
Flat Earth Infrared Camera - Hundred of miles with no curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5RJhRNWCMo&t=608s
2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Can't have + Pressure against a vaccuum: https://www.youtube....suvdGYCY&t=500s
Astronauts on wires / Chromakey Technology: https://www.youtube....h?v=x6XeELc3QH8
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLltxIX4B8_URNUzDE2sXctnUAEXgEDDGn
http://www.atlantean...nning-ball.html
https://flatearthsci...t-earth-proofs/

#16
weatherbowl

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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 25 January 2019 - 04:53 AM, said:

I think there is another thread dedicated to this, but honestly does it matter if the earth is round , flat, square or parallelogram? It's meaningless as long as it supports life.

I guess science really wasn't your favorite subject in school. :)

Getting back to the subject at hand. I believe weather forecasting has improved. One area I have seen great improvement is the tracking of hurricanes. Some of the predictions this past season were quite accurate days and days in advance.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#17
wishcast_hater

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View Postweatherbowl, on 25 January 2019 - 08:49 AM, said:



I guess science really wasn't your favorite subject in school. :)/>

Getting back to the subject at hand. I believe weather forecasting has improved. One area I have seen great improvement is the tracking of hurricanes. Some of the predictions this past season were quite accurate days and days in advance.

I believe those are exceptions rather than the rule. Even people who donít follow the weather with the intensity that we do realize weather forecasters suck
Earth is not a spinning ball
Flat Earth Infrared Camera - Hundred of miles with no curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5RJhRNWCMo&t=608s
2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Can't have + Pressure against a vaccuum: https://www.youtube....suvdGYCY&t=500s
Astronauts on wires / Chromakey Technology: https://www.youtube....h?v=x6XeELc3QH8
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLltxIX4B8_URNUzDE2sXctnUAEXgEDDGn
http://www.atlantean...nning-ball.html
https://flatearthsci...t-earth-proofs/

#18
weatherbowl

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View Postwishcast_hater, on 25 January 2019 - 10:08 AM, said:

I believe those are exceptions rather than the rule. Even people who don't follow the weather with the intensity that we do realize weather forecasters suck

Weather forecasters have always been the butt of jokes and probably always will be because it is such an inexact science. To me, the day weather forecasters can predict with 90% accuracy, is the day weather will be a lot more boring to follow. For me, one of the best things about weather is the uncertainty factor, it just makes it that much more interesting.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island





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