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February weather and beyond


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#21
satellite_eyes

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Truthfully the models look pretty tranquil to me. I don't see anything extreme in either direction and that next cold outbreak doesn't look like much to me. There will be opportunities for smaller systems with marginally cold air.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"

Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6

#22
FreezingDrizzle

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View Postjimjesswill3, on 01 February 2019 - 05:28 AM, said:

after a brief warm-up next week I hear there may be a thread the needle type system around the 7th and then a more significant threat around the 13th or 14th, can anybody verify?

Jim, Mt. Holly doesn't see anything exciting. Slight chance of a wave developing. FD

"The timing of the 00z ECMWF for precipitation reaching the area is Thursday, with the 00z GFS a little bit faster
and the 00z CMC much slower (more like Thursday night). Temperatures
may be cool enough at night for a wintry mix in the northern CWA,
but in general, this would be another rain event for the area given
the low`s track north/west of the area. As with last night`s runs,
the ECMWF/GFS do hint at some surface wave development along the
cold front, which will need to be watched
both in terms of QPF
magnitude/placement and overall timing of the most substantial
precipitation.

Looks like another broad surface high moves in by next weekend, with
colder temperatures and another fairly lengthy dry period
."


#23
TatamyPA

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View PostFreezingDrizzle, on 01 February 2019 - 08:03 AM, said:

Meanwhile, a weak clipper slides to our south lol. The one-inch line is from Wilmington, DE to AC.

https://www.accuweat...y/weather-radar
There is actually light snow falling in central PA in the Harrisburg area and this snow reaches as far east as Hamburg PA. I do not expect it to get any further than the west side of Allentown.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#24
carribeanpirate

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Believe it or not Iím hoping for a big storm on Sunday if Presidents weekend. I have business travel schedule for the third week in a row and would love to see my flight cancelled.

#25
TatamyPA

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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 01 February 2019 - 11:10 AM, said:

Believe it or not Iím hoping for a big storm on Sunday if Presidents weekend. I have business travel schedule for the third week in a row and would love to see my flight cancelled.
We will see what we can work up for you.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#26
moleson

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View Postcarribeanpirate, on 01 February 2019 - 11:10 AM, said:

Believe it or not Iím hoping for a big storm on Sunday if Presidents weekend. I have business travel schedule for the third week in a row and would love to see my flight cancelled.

I have been there so many times!! Only time I wish for snow. 😂
Anthony M.

#27
carribeanpirate

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View PostTatamyPA, on 01 February 2019 - 12:37 PM, said:


We will see what we can work up for you.

I will be looking for a big snowstorm right alongside all the others, probably for the first time in my adult life!

#28
jimjesswill3

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Those of you near the coast may be going back into a normal to below normal snowfall pattern, 40 plus is not going to be in the cards for you.. I remember back in the 80's every storm would be front end loaded then back end rain would wash it away. North and West would be the jackpot winners.
Jim-Marshalls Creek PA
41.0976 N 75.1217 W
Elevation 1099.1 feet

#29
TatamyPA

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View Postjimjesswill3, on 01 February 2019 - 02:28 PM, said:

Those of you near the coast may be going back into a normal to below normal snowfall pattern, 40 plus is not going to be in the cards for you.. I remember back in the 80's every storm would be front end loaded then back end rain would wash it away. North and West would be the jackpot winners.
They are having a below normal snow season near the coast this year. Winter is not over yet so I would be very careful about making pronouncements about changes in snow fall patterns.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#30
TatamyPA

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We have been having some occasional very light snow here today with the northern edge of the snow shield moving through the mid Atlantic. 16/9
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#31
jimjesswill3

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View PostTatamyPA, on 01 February 2019 - 02:34 PM, said:


They are having a below normal snow season near the coast this year. Winter is not over yet so I would be very careful about making pronouncements about changes in snow fall patterns.

I am trying reverse psychology
Jim-Marshalls Creek PA
41.0976 N 75.1217 W
Elevation 1099.1 feet

#32
metfan4life

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Radar looks nice for SNJ.




Anthony

#33
metfan4life

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Cape May , NJ has seen more snow than Boston and NYC combined.
Anthony

#34
weathergeek87

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Walpack down to 0F
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#35
wishcast_hater

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0 here already, faster than last night.
Earth is not a spinning ball
Flat Earth Infrared Camera - Hundred of miles with no curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5RJhRNWCMo&t=608s
2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Can't have + Pressure against a vaccuum: https://www.youtube....suvdGYCY&t=500s
Astronauts on wires / Chromakey Technology: https://www.youtube....h?v=x6XeELc3QH8
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLltxIX4B8_URNUzDE2sXctnUAEXgEDDGn
http://www.atlantean...nning-ball.html
https://flatearthsci...t-earth-proofs/

#36
gpsnavigator

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Something's funky with the Walpack station. The temperature tracing is jouncing around way too much. According to it, the temperature a bit ago plunged to -20, then quickly popped back up to -7 five minutes later. There are a few weird spikes like that over the past couple of days. I'm not buying it.
-GPSNav
Home: Rockaway, NJ - Morris County -- Elevation 745 feet
Work: Newton, NJ - Sussex County -- Elevation 570 feet
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#37
rgwp96

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View Postgpsnavigator, on 01 February 2019 - 07:27 AM, said:

The Rutgers maps aren't loading - I've reached out and they are aware of the issue and working on a fix.
Que up Walpack on the Tabular Data link. It shows a low of -22.
Walpack reading are off . Something is wrong with the sensors . Look at the graph , has to many spikes . Again tonight it went from -7 to -20 in 5 minutes. I reported it 2 days ago .

Butler, New Jersey





Visit My weatherstation

snowfall
18-19= 31.8 ytd
17-18= 72
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#38
weathergeek87

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View Postrgwp96, on 02 February 2019 - 12:45 AM, said:


Walpack reading are off . Something is wrong with the sensors . Look at the graph , has to many spikes . Again tonight it went from -7 to -20 in 5 minutes. I reported it 2 days ago .

I think Nick was in communication with someone but they said there was nothing wrong. That was earlier this morning. Never saw these spikes before. They need to look further into it. I always suspected that -25F reading was off.
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
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#39
wishcast_hater

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Winter ends tomorrow. 🙁
Earth is not a spinning ball
Flat Earth Infrared Camera - Hundred of miles with no curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5RJhRNWCMo&t=608s
2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Can't have + Pressure against a vaccuum: https://www.youtube....suvdGYCY&t=500s
Astronauts on wires / Chromakey Technology: https://www.youtube....h?v=x6XeELc3QH8
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLltxIX4B8_URNUzDE2sXctnUAEXgEDDGn
http://www.atlantean...nning-ball.html
https://flatearthsci...t-earth-proofs/

#40
rgwp96

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View Postweathergeek87, on 02 February 2019 - 12:57 AM, said:



I think Nick was in communication with someone but they said there was nothing wrong. That was earlier this morning. Never saw these spikes before. They need to look further into it. I always suspected that -25F reading was off.

Yes because I told him too, I sent him pictures of the graph and he told Robinson who said it was cold air pooling lol. Than he contacted peet brothers and they said it was ok as well . Obviously he talked to someone who had no clue lol.
Butler, New Jersey





Visit My weatherstation

snowfall
18-19= 31.8 ytd
17-18= 72
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32





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