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February weather and beyond


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#201
TatamyPA

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Models are honing in on a general consensus for our upcoming winter storm. First part arrives tonight as light snow breaks out mainly from the city and on to the south and west. This first round of snow will produce a coating to an inch or so for mainly central and northern NJ especially south of I80 before tapering during the day tomorrow. The next part comes in Monday night well after midnight. Snow over spreads the area from SW to NE and then during the day Tuesday goes to a wintry mix across the area. A period of sleet is likely before changing to freezing rain and then rain by later in the day. I would go with accumulations of 2-5” for this second round.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
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#202
NYCSNOWMAN

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 TatamyPA, on 10 February 2019 - 04:55 AM, said:

Models are honing in on a general consensus for our upcoming winter storm. First part arrives tonight as light snow breaks out mainly from the city and on to the south and west. This first round of snow will produce a coating to an inch or so for mainly central and northern NJ especially south of I80 before tapering during the day tomorrow. The next part comes in Monday night well after midnight. Snow over spreads the area from SW to NE and then during the day Tuesday goes to a wintry mix across the area. A period of sleet is likely before changing to freezing rain and then rain by later in the day. I would go with accumulations of 2-5” for this second round.
good call imo ..in your opinion during rush hour tue..would it be snowing light or moderate?
Rob
God Bless America
"WATING FOR WINTERS FURY"
Fleetwood, NY

#203
TatamyPA

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Tuesday AM could be moderate snow- during the evening we will be switching from a wintry mix over to rain.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
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#204
canisteerrd

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Upton's snow map has 4" from Newark to NYC and northwest to Paramus. Then heading out towards me, 6" in West Milford. When does Mt. Holly put out their map?
Elev: 1217'

2012-2013 total snow: 67.0"
2013- 2014 total snow: 67.0"
2014-2015 total snow: 71.1"
2015-2016 total snow: 31"
2016-2017 total snow 61"
2017-2018 total snow: 84"
2018-2019 snow to date: 22.8"
Lowest temp this season: -7.6° 1/31/19

#205
robbbs

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View Postcanisteerrd, on 10 February 2019 - 08:02 AM, said:

Upton's snow map has 4" from Newark to NYC and northwest to Paramus. Then heading out towards me, 6" in West Milford. When does Mt. Holly put out their map?

Mount Holly's snowfall map has been out. However, south Jersey and southeast PA are expecting a light snow event tonight into tomorrow so their map is focusing on that event before anything beyond.
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#206
TatamyPA

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 robbbs, on 10 February 2019 - 08:17 AM, said:



Mount Holly's snowfall map has been out. However, south Jersey and southeast PA are expecting a light snow event tonight into tomorrow so their map is focusing on that event before anything beyond.
I think Mt. Holly needs to issue a WSW for their northern counties for snow and ice for the Monday night to Tuesday event. Waiting until the storm is getting underway does not serve the best interests of the people living in those northern counties.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#207
metfan4life

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 TatamyPA, on 10 February 2019 - 08:25 AM, said:


I think Mt. Holly needs to issue a WSW for their northern counties for snow and ice for the Monday night to Tuesday event. Waiting until the storm is getting underway does not serve the best interests of the people living in those northern counties.

Time to make a thread

I'm bad luck so you can make the thread =)
WINTER OF 2018-2019
11/15/18 : 5.0"
1/18/19 : 0.5"
1/30/19 : 0.8"
2/12/19 : 1.8"

Total : 8.1"

#208
okterrific83

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DT is saying a snowy and cold 2nd half of February for the East is bs.

#209
OrangeCountyWeather06

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View PostTatamyPA, on 10 February 2019 - 08:25 AM, said:


I think Mt. Holly needs to issue a WSW for their northern counties for snow and ice for the Monday night to Tuesday event. Waiting until the storm is getting underway does not serve the best interests of the people living in those northern counties.

What do you think for inland folks a little north let’s say Orange, Putnam and Dutchess? Probably advisory level event right?
Cornwall NY

#210
metfan4life

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 okterrific83, on 10 February 2019 - 08:34 AM, said:

DT is saying a snowy and cold 2nd half of February for the East is bs.

He is still saying that? Quite possible with the MJO but not a guarantee.
WINTER OF 2018-2019
11/15/18 : 5.0"
1/18/19 : 0.5"
1/30/19 : 0.8"
2/12/19 : 1.8"

Total : 8.1"

#211
canisteerrd

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NWS has my area below freezing for the entire event. I just hope most of the heavier precip falls as snow or sleet and not zr.
Elev: 1217'

2012-2013 total snow: 67.0"
2013- 2014 total snow: 67.0"
2014-2015 total snow: 71.1"
2015-2016 total snow: 31"
2016-2017 total snow 61"
2017-2018 total snow: 84"
2018-2019 snow to date: 22.8"
Lowest temp this season: -7.6° 1/31/19

#212
wishcast_hater

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View PostOrangeCountyWeather06, on 10 February 2019 - 08:40 AM, said:

What do you think for inland folks a little north let’s say Orange, Putnam and Dutchess? Probably advisory level event right?

TWC has me back to 5-8 inches but the NWS is siding with the NAM which brings in a warm nose aloft and cuts down totals so that perhaps only an advisory level is needed. The last storm my area hung onto frozen precip for quite a while while only a few miles away it was rain. The temps were much colder for that storm so I don't expect any big accumulations here.
Earth is not a spinning ball
Flat Earth Infrared Camera - Hundred of miles with no curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5RJhRNWCMo&t=608s
2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Can't have + Pressure against a vaccuum: https://www.youtube....suvdGYCY&t=500s
Astronauts on wires / Chromakey Technology: https://www.youtube....h?v=x6XeELc3QH8
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLltxIX4B8_URNUzDE2sXctnUAEXgEDDGn
http://www.atlantean...nning-ball.html
https://flatearthsci...t-earth-proofs/

#213
okterrific83

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 metfan4life, on 10 February 2019 - 08:52 AM, said:



He is still saying that? Quite possible with the MJO but not a guarantee.

Yeah he referenced the Seattle snow. Which usually means we get shafted in the east. Big trough in the Pacific northwest means warm for the East.

#214
TatamyPA

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 OrangeCountyWeather06, on 10 February 2019 - 08:40 AM, said:



What do you think for inland folks a little north let’s say Orange, Putnam and Dutchess? Probably advisory level event right?
I will update after the 12z runs are done.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
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#215
weathergeek87

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Mt. Holly always late to the party
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#216
lawnboy11

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If on long island we get say 3 inches of snow do you think the rain will wash it all away before all is said and done? Thanks!

#217
weathergeek87

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 lawnboy11, on 10 February 2019 - 01:09 PM, said:

If on long island we get say 3 inches of snow do you think the rain will wash it all away before all is said and done? Thanks!

Yes probably
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
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#218
OrangeCountyWeather06

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Winter Storm Watch issued for Orange and Passaic counties. 4”-7” of snow and a bit of ice expected there.
Cornwall NY

#219
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Here we go again, temperatures forecasted to be in the mid-40s to 50s Thursday through Saturday, with showers.
2018-2019 Frozen Precipitation Record

November 15, 2018 - 4.1 inches (Miller A "over-performing" - to sleet, freezing rain, rain, back to sleet on 11/16 7 am)
January 13, 2019 - 0.2 inches (northern edge of "southern slider")
January 18, 2019 - 0.6 inches (weak mid-western storm)
January 30, 2019 - 0.5 inches (intense 20 minute squall on arctic front)
February 11, 2019 - 0.3 inches (northern edge of weak wave from the west)
February 12, 2019 - 1.1 inches snow-sleet-snow-rain (front end of wave from the west)

Seasonal Total - 6.8 inches

Notable temperatures: 11/22/2018: 18 F (low), 11/23/2018: 12 F (low), 1/21/2019: 5 F (low), 1/22/2019: 11 F (low), 1/24/2019 60 F (high),

#220
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 FreezingDrizzle, on 10 February 2019 - 05:19 PM, said:

Here we go again, temperatures forecasted to be in the mid-40s to 50s Thursday through Saturday, with showers.
I hope we get one snow storm this season that is a pure snow event..I mean for NYC, however the window of opportunity for this is about 4 weeks or less in my opinion..
Rob
God Bless America
"WATING FOR WINTERS FURY"
Fleetwood, NY





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