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Wintry Precip Event, Feb. 11-12


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#1
FreezingDrizzle

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Surprised to read that both Mt. Holly and Upton have my area for 2-4 inches Tuesday, with about an inch overnight tonight.

ps- Not sure that I will bring "luck" or even want to bring it. lol Snow to rain is the pits, may as well be rain.
2018-2019 Frozen Precipitation Record

November 15, 2018 - 4.1 inches (Miller A "over-performing" - to sleet, freezing rain, rain, back to sleet on 11/16 7 am)
January 13, 2019 - 0.2 inches (northern edge of "southern slider")
January 18, 2019 - 0.6 inches (weak mid-western storm)
January 30, 2019 - 0.5 inches (intense 20 minute squall on arctic front)
February 11, 2019 - 0.3 inches (northern edge of weak wave from the west)
February 12, 2019 - 1.1 inches snow-sleet-snow-rain (front-end of wave from the west)
February 20, 2019 - 2.3 inches (front-end of wave from the west)
February 28, 2019 - 0.2 inches (southern edge of a clipper)
March 1, 2019 - 0.3 inches (weak clipper)
March 2, 2019 - 3.3 inches
March 4, 2019 - 4.6 inches (SW storm)

Seasonal Total - 17.5 inches

Notable temperatures: 11/22/2018: 18 F (low), 11/23/2018: 12 F (low), 1/21/2019: 5 F (low), 1/22/2019: 11 F (low), 1/24/2019 60 F (high),

#2
metfan4life

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Nam seems colder for everyone
Anthony

#3
winterbird04

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Seems like they are calling for up to 5” here. Will see lol
Go EAGLES, PHILLIES AND FLYERS


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#4
TatamyPA

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Trend on the models seems to increase the length of time it snows with this event- particularly to the north and west.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#5
TatamyPA

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View PostFreezingDrizzle, on 10 February 2019 - 09:40 AM, said:

Surprised to read that both Mt. Holly and Upton have my area for 2-4 inches Tuesday, with about an inch overnight tonight.

ps- Not sure that I will bring "luck" or even want to bring it. lol Snow to rain is the pits, may as well be rain.
This is a classic 80s/90s style winter. You have to be inland to JP. I think I have jackpotted with my buddy in Stroudsburg on just about every event so far this year. If snow fall totals of 3-6/4-8” seem familiar it is because back in the day on 1010 WINS accuweather those were the amounts that were always called for in our significant events. Storms with higher amounts just about never materialized. Now people whine when those amounts are called for because they think they are being short changed.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#6
NYCSNOWMAN

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View PostTatamyPA, on 10 February 2019 - 10:29 AM, said:

Trend on the models seems to increase the length of time it snows with this event- particularly to the north and west.
I think Tuesday morning commute going to be rough for many..
Rob
God Bless America
"WATING FOR WINTERS FURY"
Fleetwood, NY

#7
TatamyPA

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View PostNYCSNOWMAN, on 10 February 2019 - 10:36 AM, said:

I think Tuesday morning commute going to be rough for many..
Absolutely!
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#8
canisteerrd

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Wondering if Mt. Holly will issue WSW's in the late afternoon update for its northern and western forecast counties. If they wait till tomorrow, that doesn't give alot of warning time to the masses. Most people aren't crazy like us and monitor the weather so closely. Mentioned it to my 20yr old son about driving Tuesday morning, and he had no idea we are getting winter weather Tuesday.
Elev: 1217'

2012-2013 total snow: 67.0"
2013- 2014 total snow: 67.0"
2014-2015 total snow: 71.1"
2015-2016 total snow: 31"
2016-2017 total snow 61"
2017-2018 total snow: 84"
2018-2019 snow to date: 40"
Lowest temp this season: -7.6° 1/31/19

#9
metfan4life

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Gfs has 2-4 inches even for the city before sleet and rain.
Anthony

#10
nyrangers1022

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CMC is now very warm. Even has my area going well into the 40s. For some reason it developed the secondary way inland

#11
FreezingDrizzle

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View PostTatamyPA, on 10 February 2019 - 10:35 AM, said:

This is a classic 80s/90s style winter. You have to be inland to JP. I think I have jackpotted with my buddy in Stroudsburg on just about every event so far this year. If snow fall totals of 3-6/4-8" seem familiar it is because back in the day on 1010 WINS accuweather those were the amounts that were always called for in our significant events. Storms with higher amounts just about never materialized. Now people whine when those amounts are called for because they think they are being short changed.

For sure, Tatamy. Storms like this were the typical even for most of the late 1960s and the 1970s, except for 76-77 (the bitter cold season) and 77-78 (the two-MECS season).
I've seen a 100 storms like this one.
2018-2019 Frozen Precipitation Record

November 15, 2018 - 4.1 inches (Miller A "over-performing" - to sleet, freezing rain, rain, back to sleet on 11/16 7 am)
January 13, 2019 - 0.2 inches (northern edge of "southern slider")
January 18, 2019 - 0.6 inches (weak mid-western storm)
January 30, 2019 - 0.5 inches (intense 20 minute squall on arctic front)
February 11, 2019 - 0.3 inches (northern edge of weak wave from the west)
February 12, 2019 - 1.1 inches snow-sleet-snow-rain (front-end of wave from the west)
February 20, 2019 - 2.3 inches (front-end of wave from the west)
February 28, 2019 - 0.2 inches (southern edge of a clipper)
March 1, 2019 - 0.3 inches (weak clipper)
March 2, 2019 - 3.3 inches
March 4, 2019 - 4.6 inches (SW storm)

Seasonal Total - 17.5 inches

Notable temperatures: 11/22/2018: 18 F (low), 11/23/2018: 12 F (low), 1/21/2019: 5 F (low), 1/22/2019: 11 F (low), 1/24/2019 60 F (high),

#12
FreezingDrizzle

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View PostNYCSNOWMAN, on 10 February 2019 - 10:36 AM, said:

I think Tuesday morning commute going to be rough for many..
It will be cold enough to stick just about everywhere Tuesday morning if temperatures drop below freezing Monday night, as are forecasted.
2018-2019 Frozen Precipitation Record

November 15, 2018 - 4.1 inches (Miller A "over-performing" - to sleet, freezing rain, rain, back to sleet on 11/16 7 am)
January 13, 2019 - 0.2 inches (northern edge of "southern slider")
January 18, 2019 - 0.6 inches (weak mid-western storm)
January 30, 2019 - 0.5 inches (intense 20 minute squall on arctic front)
February 11, 2019 - 0.3 inches (northern edge of weak wave from the west)
February 12, 2019 - 1.1 inches snow-sleet-snow-rain (front-end of wave from the west)
February 20, 2019 - 2.3 inches (front-end of wave from the west)
February 28, 2019 - 0.2 inches (southern edge of a clipper)
March 1, 2019 - 0.3 inches (weak clipper)
March 2, 2019 - 3.3 inches
March 4, 2019 - 4.6 inches (SW storm)

Seasonal Total - 17.5 inches

Notable temperatures: 11/22/2018: 18 F (low), 11/23/2018: 12 F (low), 1/21/2019: 5 F (low), 1/22/2019: 11 F (low), 1/24/2019 60 F (high),

#13
weathergeek87

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NWS definitely more bullish today as their map shows 6” for West Milford, NJ
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#14
rgwp96

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Upton going to be burnt again from going to high with those numbers
Butler, New Jersey





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snowfall
18-19= 31.8 ytd
17-18= 72
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#15
TatamyPA

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Based upon what I am seeing on the 12z models I am going to stick with my idea for 2-5” across the area including NYC and the nearby suburbs. I believe amounts of 1-2” are most likely across LI and the north Jersey coast. I think Precip will have a tough time over coming very dry air in all levels of the atmosphere early Tuesday especially as you go east across the area. I think western and NW NJ can jackpot with this due their position in relation to high pressure to the north and the upsloping flow coming down from NE and coming across that area along with WAA coming in from the west. I think 4-6” is possible across Sussex and Orange Cty with lesser amounts east of there and greater amounts to the west of there. By Tuesday afternoon I think all areas will transition. Inland a period of sleet then ice. Nearer to the coast a brief period of sleet then rain.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#16
metfan4life

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View Postrgwp96, on 10 February 2019 - 01:13 PM, said:

Upton going to be burnt again from going to high with those numbers

They might be right. Models usually underdo cad.
Anthony

#17
rgwp96

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View Postmetfan4life, on 10 February 2019 - 02:57 PM, said:



They might be right. Models usually underdo cad.

Hasn’t happened all year, and cad is more for ice
Butler, New Jersey





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snowfall
18-19= 31.8 ytd
17-18= 72
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#18
weathergeek87

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View Postmetfan4life, on 10 February 2019 - 02:57 PM, said:



They might be right. Models usually underdo cad.

CAD doesn’t mean snow. Just ice. Gotta see how quickly the mid levels warm and how much snow can accumulate before it does
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#19
weathergeek87

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TWC map surprisingly high for us.
5-8” NW of NYC and 8-12” highest elevations of northern NJ and up in the Kittatinny’s.
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#20
metfan4life

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View Postweathergeek87, on 10 February 2019 - 03:18 PM, said:



CAD doesn’t mean snow. Just ice. Gotta see how quickly the mid levels warm and how much snow can accumulate before it does

Good post
Anthony





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