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Wintry Precip Event, Feb. 11-12

Started by FreezingDrizzle, Feb 10 2019 09:40 AM

263 replies to this topic

#41
rgwp96
Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:05 AM

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6z gfs cuts back snow totals , now not 1 model shows over 3 inches
Butler, New Jersey





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snowfall
18-19= 31.8 ytd
17-18= 72
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#42
NYCSNOWMAN
Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:15 AM

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View Postrgwp96, on 11 February 2019 - 09:05 AM, said:

6z gfs cuts back snow totals , now not 1 model shows over 3 inches
anyone know when model like HRR Rap can be used for this system?
Rob
God Bless America
"WATING FOR WINTERS FURY"
Fleetwood, NY

#43
rgwp96
Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:16 AM

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View PostNYCSNOWMAN, on 11 February 2019 - 09:15 AM, said:

anyone know when model like HRR Rap can be used for this system?

Those models are garbage, always over do snow totals
Butler, New Jersey





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snowfall
18-19= 31.8 ytd
17-18= 72
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#44
TatamyPA
Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:32 AM

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Based upon model trends and the expected speed of the transition I am going with 1-4” of snow and sleet across the area with the least amounts on LI and the greatest amounts in western and NW NJ. Snow starts early tomorrow and I am expecting a transition to sleet during tomorrow morning and then a change to rain near the coast and freezing rain inland as the day progresses.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#45
metfan4life
Posted 11 February 2019 - 11:46 AM

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1- 2 inches of snow 

1-2 inches of sleet tomorrow



NYC
Anthony

#46
FreezingDrizzle
Posted 11 February 2019 - 12:34 PM

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View Postmetfan4life, on 11 February 2019 - 11:46 AM, said:

1- 2 inches of snow

1-2 inches of sleet tomorrow



NYC
Upton forecast for Staten Island does not have the changeover to rain until around 2 pm. FD
2018-2019 Frozen Precipitation Record

November 15, 2018 - 4.1 inches (Miller A "over-performing" - to sleet, freezing rain, rain, back to sleet on 11/16 7 am)
January 13, 2019 - 0.2 inches (northern edge of "southern slider")
January 18, 2019 - 0.6 inches (weak mid-western storm)
January 30, 2019 - 0.5 inches (intense 20 minute squall on arctic front)
February 11, 2019 - 0.3 inches (northern edge of weak wave from the west)
February 12, 2019 - 1.1 inches snow-sleet-snow-rain (front-end of wave from the west)
February 20, 2019 - 2.3 inches (front-end of wave from the west)
February 28, 2019 - 0.2 inches (southern edge of a clipper)
March 1, 2019 - 0.3 inches (weak clipper)
March 2, 2019 - 3.3 inches
March 4, 2019 - 4.6 inches (SW storm)

Seasonal Total - 17.5 inches

Notable temperatures: 11/22/2018: 18 F (low), 11/23/2018: 12 F (low), 1/21/2019: 5 F (low), 1/22/2019: 11 F (low), 1/24/2019 60 F (high),

#47
OrangeCountyWeather06
Posted 11 February 2019 - 12:46 PM

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Upton 7am update has 5”-6” in my area with 0.10”-0.20” of ice. With recent warmer trends they will probably cut back on those totals later today.
Cornwall NY

#48
weathergeek87
Posted 11 February 2019 - 12:49 PM

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View PostOrangeCountyWeather06, on 11 February 2019 - 12:46 PM, said:

Upton 7am update has 5”-6” in my area with 0.10”-0.20” of ice. With recent warmer trends they will probably cut back on those totals later today.

Winter Storm Warnings for Central PA.
Wondering if Mt. Holly pops a WSW for Sussex, Monroe & Carbon Co’s, or if they decide to drop the watch and go with a winter weather advisory given this mornings trends.
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#49
darkstar
Posted 11 February 2019 - 01:06 PM

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View Postweathergeek87, on 11 February 2019 - 12:49 PM, said:



Winter Storm Warnings for Central PA.
Wondering if Mt. Holly pops a WSW for Sussex, Monroe & Carbon Co’s, or if they decide to drop the watch and go with a winter weather advisory given this mornings trends.

I expect a warning. Call it 4-7 of snow/sleet with some freezing rain. Dangerous storm for our area.
Highland Lakes, NJ
Elevation 1400 ft

#50
OrangeCountyWeather06
Posted 11 February 2019 - 01:56 PM

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View Postdarkstar, on 11 February 2019 - 01:06 PM, said:



I expect a warning. Call it 4-7 of snow/sleet with some freezing rain. Dangerous storm for our area.

Very dangerous. Sleet/ice going to make evening commute tough especially inland.
Cornwall NY

#51
rgwp96
Posted 11 February 2019 - 02:36 PM

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View Postdarkstar, on 11 February 2019 - 01:06 PM, said:



I expect a warning. Call it 4-7 of snow/sleet with some freezing rain. Dangerous storm for our area.

I doubt anyone reaches the 6 inch mark which is warning criteria , latest euro shows 2 inches
Butler, New Jersey





Visit My weatherstation

snowfall
18-19= 31.8 ytd
17-18= 72
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#52
OrangeCountyWeather06
Posted 11 February 2019 - 03:22 PM

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What is start time and brunt of storm?
Cornwall NY

#53
weathergeek87
Posted 11 February 2019 - 03:37 PM

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Winter Storm Warning
Sussex/Morris/Warren/Hunterdon/Somerset

For Sussex Co: 4-7” of snow and 2/10” of ice
All day tomorrow ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#54
snowshoe
Posted 11 February 2019 - 03:38 PM

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View Postrgwp96, on 11 February 2019 - 02:36 PM, said:



I doubt anyone reaches the 6 inch mark which is warning criteria , latest euro shows 2 inches


Warning is up now for 4-7 in Sussex County. But also ice. Probably why we got warning.
Location: Wantage NJ (Northwest Sussex County)
Total snow for 2018-2019 season 36.7 inches
Total snow for 2017-2018 season 64.2 inches
Total snow for 2016-2017 season 62.1 inches
Total snow for 2015-2016 season 12 inches (Least amount ever recorded for my area)
Total snow for 2014-2015 season: 56.3 inches
Total snow for 2013-2014 season: 60.1 inches
Total snow for 2012-2013 season: 50.6 inches
Total snow for 2011-2012 season: 24 inches
Total snow for 2010-2011 season: 50.8 inches
Total snow for 2009-2010 season: 69.5 inches
Total snow for 2008-2009 season: 42.6 inches
Total snow for 2007-2008 season: 52.3 inches
Average 60 Inches

#55
weathergeek87
Posted 11 February 2019 - 03:56 PM

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Still waiting on Upton to make a move for NW burbs.
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
Work: Middletown, NY

#56
winterbird04
Posted 11 February 2019 - 04:04 PM

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Warning up for Warren County
Go EAGLES, PHILLIES AND FLYERS


(Hackettstown NJ Warren co.)

#57
OrangeCountyWeather06
Posted 11 February 2019 - 04:12 PM

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View Postweathergeek87, on 11 February 2019 - 03:56 PM, said:

Still waiting on Upton to make a move for NW burbs.

Winter Storm Warning for Orange, Putnam and Passaic in NJ. 5”-7” of snow and a 0.10-0.20 of ice. Should be dangerous.

Winter Weather Advisories NYC area and nearby surburbs.
Cornwall NY

#58
darkstar
Posted 11 February 2019 - 04:28 PM

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View PostOrangeCountyWeather06, on 11 February 2019 - 04:12 PM, said:



Winter Storm Warning for Orange, Putnam and Passaic in NJ. 5”-7” of snow and a 0.10-0.20 of ice. Should be dangerous.

Winter Weather Advisories NYC area and nearby surburbs.

Dangerous is an understatement.


Highland Lakes, NJ
Elevation 1400 ft

#59
OrangeCountyWeather06
Posted 11 February 2019 - 04:34 PM

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View Postdarkstar, on 11 February 2019 - 04:28 PM, said:



Dangerous is an understatement.

The concerning part for me is I work at 4pm-12am tomorrow and have to cross the Newburgh-Beacon bridge to get to Putnam County via I-84. May have to leave my home very early to get there.
Cornwall NY

#60
metfan4life
Posted 11 February 2019 - 05:06 PM

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Gov. Murphy declares a State of Emergency for the Winter Storm.
Anthony
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