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3/2 event


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#1
TatamyPA

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Models are focusing in on an event for us on Saturday that at the moment looks to potentially be more significant for us than Sunday night.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#2
TatamyPA

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18z Euro is really bullish on this event. It is showing a swath of 4-8 snows from west to east across the area. Heaviest snows across NYC and LI.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#3
TatamyPA

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The hallmark of this winter has been the events that show up at the last minute on the models and this fits that bill.

18z models are calling for the following amounts for Saturday:
RGEM - 2-4 across northern NJ, LHV, and southern CT.
GFS - 2-4 NYC / 3-6 NW NJ/ LHV / 4-8 LI / 8-14 CT
NAM - 1-3
FV3 - What is this about a storm? Shows nothing.

Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#4
TatamyPA

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18z GFS

Posted Image
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#5
metfan4life

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This came out of no where
Anthony

#6
wishcast_hater

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NWS forecast discussion states they have no clue on either storm and will let us know how everything turns out on Monday.

Las Vegas is now taking bets on forecast models GFS and EURO. Odds will be released shortly. Stay tuned.
Earth is not a spinning ball
Flat Earth Infrared Camera - Hundred of miles with no curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5RJhRNWCMo&t=608s
2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Can't have + Pressure against a vaccuum: https://www.youtube....suvdGYCY&t=500s
Astronauts on wires / Chromakey Technology: https://www.youtube....h?v=x6XeELc3QH8
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLltxIX4B8_URNUzDE2sXctnUAEXgEDDGn
http://www.atlantean...nning-ball.html
https://flatearthsci...t-earth-proofs/

#7
TatamyPA

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18z Euro

Posted Image
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#8
TatamyPA

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View Postmetfan4life, on 28 February 2019 - 08:21 PM, said:

This came out of no where

It really did - but that has been the pattern this winter. Anything modeled 4 or more days or more out does not happen. The last minute stuff is a different story.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#9
TatamyPA

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HRDPS - Canadian Hi-Res

Posted Image
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#10
TatamyPA

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18z FV3 - This is why they postponed implementation - has no clue about this event.

Posted Image
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#11
rgwp96

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Nam actually showing a few inches early tomorrow morning as far an northern Passaic county
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snowfall
18-19= 31.8 ytd
17-18= 72
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#12
rgwp96

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Nam showing 4-5 area wide Saturday morning as well
Butler, New Jersey





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snowfall
18-19= 31.8 ytd
17-18= 72
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#13
DennyD

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This sounds great to me where do I sign ??

#14
TatamyPA

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0z NAM

24 hours

Posted Image

48 hours

Posted Image

Combined systems at 48 hours

Posted Image
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#15
TatamyPA

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The 0z NAM seems to want to balance out the snow outputs between the two events - it puts down more snow in central PA with the first one and less snow across southern NE and LI with the second event. The difference between the 0z NAM and the 18z GFS is about as stark as you will ever see in the short range.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#16
weathergeek87

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View PostTatamyPA, on 28 February 2019 - 09:29 PM, said:

The 0z NAM seems to want to balance out the snow outputs between the two events - it puts down more snow in central PA with the first one and less snow across southern NE and LI with the second event. The difference between the 0z NAM and the 18z GFS is about as stark as you will ever see in the short range.

Tat - I'm not following. The maps above, is that including the system for Sun/Mon?
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#17
TatamyPA

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0z NAM at 0200z


Posted Image

0200 Actual radar

Posted Image
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#18
rgwp96

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View Postweathergeek87, on 28 February 2019 - 09:33 PM, said:



Tat - I'm not following. The maps above, is that including the system for Sun/Mon?

No
Butler, New Jersey





Visit My weatherstation

snowfall
18-19= 31.8 ytd
17-18= 72
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#19
TatamyPA

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I posted the above because I think that the 0z NAM is underdoing the precip out over Ohio and WV.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#20
TatamyPA

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View Postweathergeek87, on 28 February 2019 - 09:33 PM, said:

Tat - I'm not following. The maps above, is that including the system for Sun/Mon?

Read the time stamps on the maps carefully. This is for Friday and Saturday. I am trying to separate the two systems out as best as I can taking into account the limitations of the sites available to us. The evolution of the Sunday night system will be impacted by how strong the Saturday system gets. Lots of questions for now.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly





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