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MLK Weekend Wishcaster Special


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#1
dondraper

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Thread for this coming weekends possible event.

#2
metfan4life

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Interesting storm coming up

I think everyone will see accumulating snow but the most snow will be inland.
Winter 2019-2020
12/2/19 - 1"

#3
wishcast_hater

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Probably just another 1-3 inch event for the city that never materializes and ends up being a coating to rain. Hope I am wrong.
Earth is not a spinning ball
Flat Earth Infrared Camera - Hundred of miles with no curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5RJhRNWCMo&t=608s
2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Can't have + Pressure against a vaccuum: https://www.youtube....suvdGYCY&t=500s
Astronauts on wires / Chromakey Technology: https://www.youtube....h?v=x6XeELc3QH8
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLltxIX4B8_URNUzDE2sXctnUAEXgEDDGn
http://www.atlantean...nning-ball.html
https://flatearthsci...t-earth-proofs/

#4
TatamyPA

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Models continue to show an event that brings highest totals to places to the north and west of I287. My early thoughts for this one would be for amounts starting at 3-6 for those areas with the potential for more before a change to slop and rain. I would not give up on accumulating snows near the coast just yet. Still many runs to go...
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#5
wishcast_hater

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Im above I84 and was forecast for many of these events in December to bring appreciable snows but only ended up with a quarter of what was forecast and then the sleet moved in.
Earth is not a spinning ball
Flat Earth Infrared Camera - Hundred of miles with no curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5RJhRNWCMo&t=608s
2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Can't have + Pressure against a vaccuum: https://www.youtube....suvdGYCY&t=500s
Astronauts on wires / Chromakey Technology: https://www.youtube....h?v=x6XeELc3QH8
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLltxIX4B8_URNUzDE2sXctnUAEXgEDDGn
http://www.atlantean...nning-ball.html
https://flatearthsci...t-earth-proofs/

#6
TatamyPA

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View Postwishcast_hater, on 14 January 2020 - 12:02 AM, said:

Im above I84 and was forecast for many of these events in December to bring appreciable snows but only ended up with a quarter of what was forecast and then the sleet moved in.

Are you near Poughkeepsie? Are you close to the Hudson River?
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#7
gpsnavigator

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If I combine the expected daytime, and overnight totals for Saturday / Saturday night, TWC has me at 4-8".
-GPSNav
Home: Rockaway, NJ - Morris County -- Elevation 745 feet
Work: Newton, NJ - Sussex County -- Elevation 570 feet
Interests: weather, hiking, kayaking, math, science, current events, classic cars, and craft beer

#8
vascudave

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View Postgpsnavigator, on 14 January 2020 - 06:26 AM, said:

If I combine the expected daytime, and overnight totals for Saturday / Saturday night, TWC has me at 4-8".
they dropping the ranges today, yesterday they had 6-11" combined in rockaway.

Have 3 -5 for me in bridgewater.

#9
wishcast_hater

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View PostTatamyPA, on 14 January 2020 - 01:56 AM, said:



Are you near Poughkeepsie? Are you close to the Hudson River?

Im east of Poughkeepsie (about 20 min) in LaGrangeville/Beekman area. I am up on a mountain so we always do better than people even a few miles away in lower elevations.
Earth is not a spinning ball
Flat Earth Infrared Camera - Hundred of miles with no curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5RJhRNWCMo&t=608s
2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Can't have + Pressure against a vaccuum: https://www.youtube....suvdGYCY&t=500s
Astronauts on wires / Chromakey Technology: https://www.youtube....h?v=x6XeELc3QH8
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLltxIX4B8_URNUzDE2sXctnUAEXgEDDGn
http://www.atlantean...nning-ball.html
https://flatearthsci...t-earth-proofs/

#10
isobar65

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Euro depicting rain. No artic air mass in place and the MJO in phase 5, this is not our winter.
White Plains, NY (Westchester County)

#11
satellite_eyes

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I mean the GFS has started to look good but I would be skeptical of the strong cold high it shows over the northeast. Plus with the low being far enough north and west I said yesterday I thought it would be mostly ice/mix and mainly inland. But we'll see maybe the GFS is onto something. Things still look better particularly after this storm.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150' - Average Snow: 50"

Snow Stats (as of 3/31/15)
2014-2015 Winter - 67.0" Min Temp -6
2013-2014 Winter - 66.1" Min Temp -5
2012-2013 Winter - 53.4" Min Temp +1
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6

#12
weatherbowl

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This weekend storm is taking a track across the Great Lakes into northern N.Y. and then to Maine. Not a good snow scenario for our area, especially along the coast. If we get lucky maybe some front end snows, especially inland but then to rain.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#13
wishcast_hater

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Saturday snows DOA
Earth is not a spinning ball
Flat Earth Infrared Camera - Hundred of miles with no curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5RJhRNWCMo&t=608s
2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Can't have + Pressure against a vaccuum: https://www.youtube....suvdGYCY&t=500s
Astronauts on wires / Chromakey Technology: https://www.youtube....h?v=x6XeELc3QH8
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLltxIX4B8_URNUzDE2sXctnUAEXgEDDGn
http://www.atlantean...nning-ball.html
https://flatearthsci...t-earth-proofs/

#14
TatamyPA

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View Postwishcast_hater, on 14 January 2020 - 09:30 PM, said:

Saturday snows DOA
Would not be too quick to write this one off yet. It will definitely be a snow to ice to rain event however a decent front end thump of snow is still a good bet especially well inland. Only place in the region I would be writing this off would be for folks south of NYC.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#15
isobar65

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View PostTatamyPA, on 15 January 2020 - 01:48 AM, said:

Would not be too quick to write this one off yet. It will definitely be a snow to ice to rain event however a decent front end thump of snow is still a good bet especially well inland. Only place in the region I would be writing this off would be for folks south of NYC.

A good bet we will not see any significant snow for the rest of this month. Winter resides out west thanks to to pac influence.
White Plains, NY (Westchester County)

#16
TatamyPA

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View Postisobar65, on 15 January 2020 - 09:17 AM, said:



A good bet we will not see any significant snow for the rest of this month. Winter resides out west thanks to to pac influence.
There are a lot of weenies out there that are learning that the increased frequency of SECS and HECS that we have experienced in the NYC metro area in the last 10 to 15 years are not representative of the overall climate norms. The winter so far this year and last year are very much like the winters experienced in the 70s and 80s. Back then even speculation of a 3-6 event was a big deal. We have had a great run in recent years however it looks like it is coming to an end.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#17
NYCSNOWMAN

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View PostTatamyPA, on 15 January 2020 - 11:40 AM, said:


There are a lot of weenies out there that are learning that the increased frequency of SECS and HECS that we have experienced in the NYC metro area in the last 10 to 15 years are not representative of the overall climate norms. The winter so far this year and last year are very much like the winters experienced in the 70s and 80s. Back then even speculation of a 3-6 event was a big deal. We have had a great run in recent years however it looks like it is coming to an end.
total agree I am 48 years young .. although of course wasn't on weather boards i was following weather since i was like 6 years old and remember many dud winters...the 2009 to 2016 period got many NYC and coasties spoiled..hoping for a 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 type event..this year which i still think possible...
Rob
God Bless America
"WATING FOR WINTERS FURY"
Fleetwood, NY

#18
carribeanpirate

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many of the weenies of the younger generation have been brought up to believe the big storms of past years are climate change driven. Therefore, it should be expected to have storms like this every year.

#19
winterbird04

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View PostTatamyPA, on 15 January 2020 - 11:40 AM, said:


There are a lot of weenies out there that are learning that the increased frequency of SECS and HECS that we have experienced in the NYC metro area in the last 10 to 15 years are not representative of the overall climate norms. The winter so far this year and last year are very much like the winters experienced in the 70s and 80s. Back then even speculation of a 3-6 event was a big deal. We have had a great run in recent years however it looks like it is coming to an end.

Gee I dont remember that....
Go EAGLES, PHILLIES AND FLYERS


(Hackettstown NJ Warren co.)

#20
weathergeek87

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Looking like a probable snowfall for areas particularly NW of I-287 on Saturday. Cold to follow. Skiers and ski resorts in the area rejoice.
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
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