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DECEMBER WEATHER


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#41
TatamyPA

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View PostTatamyPA, on 10 December 2020 - 03:38 PM, said:


Getting snow along the coast at this time of the year is like threading a needle. All of the players have to be on board. Good luck with it! I think this starts as snow and goes over to slop or rain out there. Itís not impossible that this ends up mostly snow along the coast- it is just not the most likely outcome. Very early yet but that would be my first thought.

Look at todayís 12z Euro control. Plenty of mixing in the region with this. EPS mean is much less than the control. Donít you think those members are factoring in mixing as well?
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
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#42
metfan4life

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View PostTatamyPA, on 10 December 2020 - 03:44 PM, said:



Look at todayís 12z Euro control. Plenty of mixing in the region with this. EPS mean is much less than the control. Donít you think those members are factoring in mixing as well?


I'm more worried about suppression with blocking in place.
Anthony

#43
metfan4life

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View PostTatamyPA, on 10 December 2020 - 03:44 PM, said:



Look at todayís 12z Euro control. Plenty of mixing in the region with this. EPS mean is much less than the control. Donít you think those members are factoring in mixing as well?

Control has several inches for the area.
Anthony

#44
metfan4life

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Models is getting colder for the storm next week
Anthony

#45
satellite_eyes

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I don't really see much blocking on the GFS but there is cold air. The first storm trended north also but the 2nd has more cold air to work with.
Fort Mill, SC (10 miles south of Charlotte, NC)
Elevation 580' - Average Snow: 4"???

Ave. Temps/Rainfall
Jan. 51 / 30 - 3.41"
Feb. 55 / 33 - 3.45"
Mar. 63 / 39 - 4.01"
Apr. 72 / 47 - 3.04"
May 79 / 56 - 3.18"
Jun. 86 / 65 - 3.74"
Jul. 89 / 68 - 3.68"
Aug. 87 / 67 - 4.22"
Sep. 81 / 60 - 3.24"
Oct. 72 / 49 - 3.4"
Nov. 62 / 39 - 3.14"
Dec. 53 / 32 - 3.25"

#46
Corrado Jim

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View Postmetfan4life, on 10 December 2020 - 11:35 PM, said:

Models is getting colder for the storm next week

Hmm. My forecast on Weather Underground for Mineola on LI for this Wednesday storm is a 70% chance of a mix of Rain and Snow with 1 to 3 for the afternoon, and 1 to 3 for the evening. It's obviously early, but interesting to see...

#47
TatamyPA

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A lot of potential for next week. Many parts of the area could see a lot of snow depending on storm intensity and track. Models are focusing on two events. One smaller one for Monday and a larger storm for Wednesday.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#48
metfan4life

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PV is taking a beating right now. It is just a matter of time before it breaks apart.
Anthony

#49
dondraper

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View PostTatamyPA, on 11 December 2020 - 04:39 PM, said:

A lot of potential for next week. Many parts of the area could see a lot of snow depending on storm intensity and track. Models are focusing on two events. One smaller one for Monday and a larger storm for Wednesday.

Amy Freeze cant wait. She's hungry for a powerful, throbbing low pressure system that gives the area a thorough pounding. Having just recently rejoined WABC and after an extended rondezvous with the BBC she wont be satisfied by anything less than 11 magnificent inches of solid delight.

#50
TatamyPA

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View Postdondraper, on 11 December 2020 - 06:52 PM, said:



Amy Freeze cant wait. She's hungry for a powerful, throbbing low pressure system that gives the area a thorough pounding. Having just recently rejoined WABC and after an extended rondezvous with the BBC she wont be satisfied by anything less than 11 magnificent inches of solid delight.
The Man is back... :)
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#51
weathergeek87

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Pretty much every major computer model is on board for a classic I-95 snowstorm for Wed/Thur preceded by a smaller event on Monday. Snowy week coming up!
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
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#52
robbbs

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Looks like most, if not the entire, region is nearing preparation-time mode for a major snow event. Good model consensus (Euro has been dead-on consistent for 5 cycles now). What could go wrong? 1), Wednesday is still 4 days out so plenty of time for changes and 2) some of the thermal profiles are dangerously close for a mix, at least for part of the event time in coastal areas. However, definitely a decent chance for this and probably the highest potential for a major snow event since early 2018.
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#53
gpsnavigator

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View Postrobbbs, on 12 December 2020 - 07:46 AM, said:

Looks like most, if not the entire, region is nearing preparation-time mode for a major snow event. Good model consensus (Euro has been dead-on consistent for 5 cycles now). What could go wrong? 1), Wednesday is still 4 days out so plenty of time for changes and 2) some of the thermal profiles are dangerously close for a mix, at least for part of the event time in coastal areas. However, definitely a decent chance for this and probably the highest potential for a major snow event since early 2018.
Yikes! The kids are supposed to be returning to school Monday, just in time to be sent remote again, maybe this time for snow.
I'm hoping for a few inches, but not a crippling blow in the middle of the worst of the pandemic.
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#54
canisteerrd

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View Postgpsnavigator, on 12 December 2020 - 09:50 AM, said:


Yikes! The kids are supposed to be returning to school Monday, just in time to be sent remote again, maybe this time for snow.
I'm hoping for a few inches, but not a crippling blow in the middle of the worst of the pandemic.
Being in Morris county I think you will get more than a few inches at this point. My area forecast on Weather Underground calling for about 1.5" Monday.
1-3" Wednesday
A foot or more expected Wednesday night
And 1-3" Thursday morning.
Still early so everything might change.
Elev: 1217'

2012-2013 total snow: 67.0"
2013- 2014 total snow: 67.0"
2014-2015 total snow: 71.1"
2015-2016 total snow: 31"
2016-2017 total snow 61"
2017-2018 total snow: 84"
2018-2019 total snow: 40"
2019-2020 total snow: 25"
2020-2021 total snow: 64.5"
2021-2022 total snow: 0.5"
Lowest temp this season: 22į 11/24/21

#55
TatamyPA

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12z Model Summary for the upcoming week:

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

I will post the Euro in a little while after it runs.

So far only the GFS/NAM is buying into the Monday event on the 12z runs. The Euro has shown it on previous runs and should show it again when it runs.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#56
weathergeek87

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12Z ECMWF kuchera shows 36Ē for northern NJ lol
Home: Hamburg, NJ (Hardyston Township, Sussex County) Elevation 700'
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#57
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Still to early to know what will happen but it is nice to be able to track a potential big snow event-nor'easter. It has been a while.
Eastern Nassau County, Long Island

#58
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View Postweathergeek87, on 12 December 2020 - 12:49 PM, said:

12Z ECMWF kuchera shows 36" for northern NJ lol

I think you're looking at the overnight run, John. The 12z Euro run generally shows 16 - 22". Either way, a lot of snow.
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#59
TatamyPA

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12z Euro

Posted Image
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#60
robbbs

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Yep; that's with 10:1 on the Euro, Tat; and Kuchera shows a little more, especially inland.
rockburnweather.com
West Milford NJ





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