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Major Snowstorm Potential Mid Week


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#1
robbbs

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So we're now within the 72 hour time frame and there is wide model support for a potentially major to complete shutdown snowstorm. There are the usual nuances and mix questions in some coastal areas. However, The Euro has been rock steady for many days now in showing a widespread snowstorm for most, if not the entire, region. Today's 12Z Euro goes BOOM and plants a three footer over inland areas, and about half that for coastal areas. This is by far the biggest major snowstorm threat since early 2018.
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#2
weathergeek87

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Charlie can you explain the difference between the regular run of the Euro which puts 18 over NW NJ and the Kuchera ratio which puts over 32 in the same area. Either way a massive hit up here if either were to verify but what is Kuchera and isnt it almost always overdone?
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#3
TatamyPA

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12z Model runs

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Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#4
robbbs

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View Postweathergeek87, on 13 December 2020 - 01:41 PM, said:

Charlie can you explain the difference between the regular run of the Euro which puts 18" over NW NJ and the Kuchera ratio which puts over 32" in the same area. Either way a massive hit up here if either were to verify but what is Kuchera and isn't it almost always overdone?

The standard rule of thumb for snowfall has usually been a 10:1 ratio of snow versus precip. However, ratios vary tremendously depending on a number of factors - conditions for snowflake growth, temperature, etc. For some events the ratio may be only 6:1 if it's a very wet snowfall. In other cases it can be 40:1 if a dry powdery type of snow. On extended events the ratios may vary and change during the course of the storm. Kuchera is a met who developed a formula for forecasting snowfall accumulations based on the actual expected ratios for that event. As for whether it's always overdone, I would say no. In fact, it should be the more accurate snowfall forecast if the storm behaves as expected.
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#5
TatamyPA

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View Postweathergeek87, on 13 December 2020 - 01:41 PM, said:

Charlie can you explain the difference between the regular run of the Euro which puts 18" over NW NJ and the Kuchera ratio which puts over 32" in the same area. Either way a massive hit up here if either were to verify but what is Kuchera and isn't it almost always overdone?

The regular model runs assume a 10:1 ratio based upon the melted precip that is expected to fall in a given time period as shown in the models. The assumption is that you receive an inch of snowfall for every 0.1" of melted precip. I say it assumes that because the actual ratio is highly dependent upon on temperature and humidity conditions aloft. The ratios vary by storm and also will change in any one place as the storm progresses. The Kuchera ratio attempts to account for these other variables. Whether it is accurate depends on your point of view. I place more emphasis on it when I know that conditions aloft are more favorable for dendrite production (colder cloud temps). Other variables that can effect the ratio include wind speed in the atmosphere.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#6
rgwp96

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Im hoping the euro wins lol
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snowfall
20-21= 50.5 ytd
19-20= 14.1
18-19= 31.8
17-18= 72
16-17= 38.3
15-16= 31
14-15=54
13-14 = 63.1
12-13 =46.2
11-12 =19, 10-11= 66
9-10=65 , 8-9 = 40
7-8=32

#7
robbbs

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Weather Channel starting to use the B word in describing the mid-week storm -- Blockbuster snowstorm potential.
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#8
TatamyPA

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Not sure if anyone is following the arrival of the colder air today. My dewpoint has dropped 12 degrees since 10:00 AM. This will impact the precip types that we see tomorrow.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#9
metfan4life

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View Postrobbbs, on 13 December 2020 - 03:16 PM, said:

Weather Channel starting to use the B word in describing the mid-week storm -- Blockbuster snowstorm potential.

Very gusty winds on the coast
Anthony

#10
metfan4life

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Upton all in



Given the supply of low level cold air and unlikelihood of
warmer air intruding aloft, this event looks to be all snow for
just about the entire region, except maybe the south shore of
eastern Long Island for a time. Too early to get into the
mesoscale details here, but confidence in significant snowfall
amounts over 6 inches continues to increase, with potential
for over a foot of snow in areas that experience the best
mesoscale lift and snow growth NW of the low track.

NE winds should also be quite strong along the coast due to the
pressure gradient between the strong high to the north and the
developing low, as high as 25-35 mph with gusts up to to 45
mph, causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow and at
least near blizzard conditions.

Still some question how quickly the low will pull out on Thu,
with the ECMWF lagging a little behind the GFS, so steady snow
still likely in the morning, then gradually tapering off from W
to E through the day.

Fair and cold Thu night into Sat with high pressure returning,
then some moderation possible with an approaching frontal
system. Too early to get into precip type details with this
system, just calling it mainly rain/snow at this juncture
Anthony

#11
metfan4life

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Wow what a euro run

The storm crawls and dumps snow on western NJ and then pivots into NYC.

By hour 90 , at least 15 inches in NYC and more than 20 west of the city with alot more to go.
Anthony

#12
metfan4life

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Winter storm watches are starting to fly everywhere
Anthony

#13
TatamyPA

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18z Euro

Posted Image
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#14
robbbs

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Tat - That 18Z Euro run, as wild as it is with totals, is out to 90 hours with some more snow still to follow. Amazing run.
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West Milford NJ

#15
TatamyPA

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View Postrobbbs, on 13 December 2020 - 09:20 PM, said:

Tat - That 18Z Euro run, as wild as it is with totals, is out to 90 hours with some more snow still to follow. Amazing run.

View Postrobbbs, on 13 December 2020 - 09:20 PM, said:

Tat - That 18Z Euro run, as wild as it is with totals, is out to 90 hours with some more snow still to follow. Amazing run.
I am watching the 0z NAM unfold. Question is will this be as aggressive as the Euro.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#16
TatamyPA

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0z NAM brings midlevel warming slightly further north than the previous run.
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#17
TatamyPA

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0z NAM

Posted Image
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#18
TatamyPA

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0z GGEM

Posted Image
Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

#19
metfan4life

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Gfs is out to lunch
Anthony

#20
Brooklynblizzards

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View Postmetfan4life, on 13 December 2020 - 11:07 PM, said:

Gfs is out to lunch

Whats that mean?





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