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Thursday's 12z...(12/17/09)

Started by forte408, Dec 17 2009 08:57 AM

317 replies to this topic

#1
forte408
Posted 17 December 2009 - 08:57 AM

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Figured I'd make a new one to keep the model talk more organized.

#2
lab94
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:04 AM

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View Postforte408, on Dec 17 2009, 08:57 AM, said:

Figured I'd make a new one to keep the model talk more organized.
I would just add the date in the tread. Easier to look up later :thumbsup:
Visit My Weather Station

station info on Weather Underground

Lab's Radar

Elevation 784'

11-12 SNOWFALL TO DATE 20.5"
09-10 Snowfall- 73.60" .....10-11 snowfall - 61.5"
07-08 snow total 39.45".. ...08-09 snowfall- 42.71"

#3
metfan4life
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:13 AM

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9z SREF is way north and west with the precip.
LETS GO METS

#4
lab94
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:13 AM

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not gd with these, but it looks like it may come a little farther north with this compaired to the 6z

Posted Image

here is the 6z

Posted Image
Visit My Weather Station

station info on Weather Underground

Lab's Radar

Elevation 784'

11-12 SNOWFALL TO DATE 20.5"
09-10 Snowfall- 73.60" .....10-11 snowfall - 61.5"
07-08 snow total 39.45".. ...08-09 snowfall- 42.71"

#5
jjvesnow
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:15 AM

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NAM out to 30 hours looks ALOT better, but i have seen this before and it ends up being the same solution.

#6
lab94
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:19 AM

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:thumbsup: :thumbsup: I think this looks good


Posted Image
Visit My Weather Station

station info on Weather Underground

Lab's Radar

Elevation 784'

11-12 SNOWFALL TO DATE 20.5"
09-10 Snowfall- 73.60" .....10-11 snowfall - 61.5"
07-08 snow total 39.45".. ...08-09 snowfall- 42.71"

#7
jjvesnow
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:21 AM

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only if that damn PV would get out of the way! i have a feeling it will start hitting the "brick wall" the next couple frames!

#8
metfan4life
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:22 AM

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D.C, Baltimore and SJ gets hit hard on the run. Trended more north and west.
LETS GO METS

#9
lab94
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:24 AM

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@ 48 hrs vs the 54hr 6z it is 8 mill. stronger and one low over cape Hat.
Visit My Weather Station

station info on Weather Underground

Lab's Radar

Elevation 784'

11-12 SNOWFALL TO DATE 20.5"
09-10 Snowfall- 73.60" .....10-11 snowfall - 61.5"
07-08 snow total 39.45".. ...08-09 snowfall- 42.71"

#10
shark253
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:26 AM

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NYC is on the borderline for some really heavy snows. It it continues to jog more north and west, then...residents in NYC are in for a snowy weekend. :thumbsup:

#11
forte408
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:26 AM

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This is looking like a monster guys. Wow.

#12
satellite_eyes
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:27 AM

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That dig looks good to me. Is it more amplified on this run? Seems like a neg tilt too. I would actually prefer the precip shield expands than the storm coming closer and getting warmer air in the mix.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150'

Snow Stats
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
Average Snow: 50"

2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6
2009-2010 Winter - 55.5" (Hackettstown)

#13
IdolikesnowKocin
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:28 AM

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View Postshark253, on Dec 17 2009, 09:26 AM, said:

NYC is on the borderline for some really heavy snows. It it continues to jog more north and west, then...residents in NYC are in for a snowy weekend. :thumbsup:

I would like to see the trend continue but it is getting too close to the storm to continue to see any significant trends north tomorrow.
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#14
shark253
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:29 AM

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View Postforte408, on Dec 17 2009, 02:26 PM, said:

This is looking like a monster guys. Wow.
Agree...bears watching!! :thumbsup:

#15
forte408
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:29 AM

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If this can complete the negative tilt, it'll crawl right up the coast.

#16
metfan4life
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:29 AM

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It's so close to NYC. The storm just stalls to the south. Icehater and Storm would be a big snowstorm if this run verified.
LETS GO METS

#17
satellite_eyes
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:29 AM

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View Postshark253, on Dec 17 2009, 09:26 AM, said:

NYC is on the borderline for some really heavy snows. It it continues to jog more north and west, then...residents in NYC are in for a snowy weekend. :thumbsup:

To me it looks like another 100 miles before the heavy snows would get nyc.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150'

Snow Stats
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
Average Snow: 50"

2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6
2009-2010 Winter - 55.5" (Hackettstown)

#18
jjvesnow
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:29 AM

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its just crazy how close this is. Even another 50-100 miles and we are all in the game. DC gets buried this run!

#19
forte408
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:30 AM

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Still looking like a coastal CJ and south storm right now. But it's so close to bringing everybody into the game.

#20
satellite_eyes
Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:32 AM

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How is a storm this strong going to have such a narrow precip shield? That's what i want to know.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ (NW Morris County)
Elevation 1150'

Snow Stats
2011-2012 Winter - 26.9" Min Temp +5
Average Snow: 50"

2010-2011 Winter - 62.3" Min Temp -6
2009-2010 Winter - 55.5" (Hackettstown)
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