11 replies to this topic

[Virgaman]

wow, my dream came true and its a nitemare, models shirted so far east we may not see much of anything up here in the hudson valley and for that matter down to nyc, i truly hope its because the models are still having a hard time, ok back to sleep this sucks

[BRINGONTHEBIGONE]

Virgaman, on Dec 18 2009, 06:07 AM, said:

wow, my dream came true and its a nitemare, models shirted so far east we may not see much of anything up here in the hudson valley and for that matter down to nyc, i truly hope its because the models are still having a hard time, ok back to sleep this sucks

It's going to be a VERY INTERESTING day with the models...

[satellite_eyes]

thank god we have another run very soon. this is insane. something doesn't seem right with this run to me. haven't looked at the gfs.

[Virgaman]

dont look you might get even more depressed especially if you look at xmas day lol

[LongIslandWthr]

If I'm not mistaken, the 6z runs always look weird

[forte408]

The 6z NAM did not do a good job with the low placement. Wait for the 12z to worry, that run didn't start up well.

[Virgaman]

How good is the canadian reggie, JB just updated his blog, still is very optimistic for snow ,also for xmas and beyond, i cant get into it now as i have to get my arse to work lol

[Putnam]

Hopefully this chnages. Everything was going our way until that anchor Hnery shouted that the GFS would come along to the EURO. What a jinx he is.

[GameOfLove]

It's going to change. Don't worry.

[Virgaman]

gameoflove, steve D has a good write up prelimary estimates are for 4 to 8 inches for our area.

[icehater]

6Z Nam requires anti-suicide pills.

This is almost now-casting time, with watching the precip shield, intensity and overall look vs latest and older model guidance. The SLP in the GOM is already more intense than the 6Z nam and precip placement and intensity looks more like 0Z and 18Z depictions. The more intense the storm is south the more it will phase with the midwest clipper. The Nam runs at 0Z and 18Z had a full phase with that system which is why it went bonkers. The 6Z misses a lot of the phase because it left the GOM storm weaker and more strung out. But again radar and SLP strength and placement is more consistent with the 0Z and 18Z from yesterday. So lets see if the 12Z NAM changes. I'd be real surprised if it doesn't go back NW. What is interesting is the GFS is getting to look more like last nights NAM with unreal QPF near south Jersey and the more expansivve QPF shield that fits the profile of past storms like this. Never in my life have I seen a cutoff like the 6Z nam and the Nams from 12Z and earlier yesterday. I've seen it elongated (and to a lesser gradiant) but never purely across like a flat balloon. Hence I'd never buy that solution. The GFS is trending constantly NW on each run. I'll stick to what I've thought all along. Intense storm closer to the coast with a lot more expanse in the northwest precip shield than the NAM shows. My analog for this storm remains the blizard of 1983.

Of real importance is the fact that HPC says the Euro ensembles do not support the 0Z Euro run. Again when ensembles are NW of any ops run you have a huge red flag, no matter what model it is.

OK - so hold your breath and lets see what the 12Z shows and then if the actual SLP and radars are consistant with the 12Z runs. The beauty about Miller A's is that you can nowcast and monitor model guidance at the same time. You have the data of buoys and land reporting to see if the model is getting it right. Right now it does not look like the 6Z Nam has gotten it right.

[shark253]

I am under a Winterstorm Watch and a Blizzard Watch is painted next to me on my right from noaa....unreal. Hopefully, that Blizzard color will be painted over my area soon!!!