927 replies to this topic

[LongIslandWthr]

Please continue Discussion here, thank you!

[robbbs]

While radar tracking can be misleading, the entire area of precip over the southeast US is generally moving north or north/northeast. Another nowcast positive.

[forte408]

Just got a call from a buddy in Baltimore, NWS has updated their snow totals to near 20 inches by Saturday night.

[joeyf714]

THIS IS EXCITING! it feel sureal, i hope everything comes together like it looks like it is....

[forte408]

Looking at radar, it looks like the precipitation down south has actually started to build slightly from S to NW, the trough is already going negative. This is awesome to watch.

[LongIslandCoastalWx]

Visible Satellite

[terryjohnson16]

That looks like a hurricane.

[icehater]

LongIslandCoastalWx, on Dec 18 2009, 01:06 PM, said:

Visible Satellite

A storm that strong isn't going out to sea.

Not a 3-phaser. If the PV was further SW than you'd have a possible phase of arctic, polar and sub-trop jets. But then the storm would be an OV storm at worst and an apps to coast hugger at best. This is the arctic and STJ and it's pretty far south hence such a potent GOM looking storm. Look at some of the convective clouds moving NE up western SC toward DC. I won't be surprised if precip arrives earlier than forecasted as the storm is expanding. Blizzard of 96 arrived 4-6 hours early in central NJ.

[forte408]

Check out that clearly defined "eye" in the gulf. Crazy storm.

[forte408]

Warnings issued here for 8-12 inches of snow. That's what the warnings down in Baltimore started at yesterday, they are up to 10-20 now.

[vascudave]

LongIslandCoastalWx, on Dec 18 2009, 02:06 PM, said:

Visible Satellite

don't see how we dont get an average 12-20 across a wide swath? loooks like a mean one. lets name it grinch

[shadow]

forte408, on Dec 18 2009, 02:17 PM, said:

Warnings issued here for 8-12 inches of snow.

Yeah the warning just popped up here also for warren cty for 4-8 inches, but they say...

There is still uncertainty as to the track of this developing
storm. If a more westward track materializes... higher amounts
could occur. A more eastward track would yield lighter amounts.



If i remember right this is what they forecasted for me in the blizzard in 96. They then raised it to 8-12, then 12-18 then 20-30. I can hope that happens again.

[NYBrit]

Although most of us on here want this storm, the timing could not be worse for the vast majority of people in our area with it being the last weekend before Christmas. A lot of plans are going to be ruined tomorrow into sunday. I think Grinch would be a good name for this storm.

[snowfreak188]

she better make the turn fast and furious in the next 4-6hour,still cant believe the blizzard watch for me i dont see that happening.

[NittanyLion]

I usually put a lot of stock into the Hi-Res models (NMM and ARW) as they can sometimes see things that other models do not.

The ARW puts a 976mb approaching the benchmark. However the NMM has much of the area getting virtually nothing.

[satellite_eyes]

NYBrit, on Dec 18 2009, 01:22 PM, said:

Although most of us on here want this storm, the timing could not be worse for the vast majority of people in our area with it being the last weekend before Christmas. A lot of plans are going to be ruined tomorrow into sunday. I think Grinch would be a good name for this storm.

Maybe shopping but you can squeeze that in next week. It's overrated anyway. Xmas parties - well i'd rather have the snow LOL.

[snowfreak188]

NYBrit, on Dec 18 2009, 01:22 PM, said:

Although most of us on here want this storm, the timing could not be worse for the vast majority of people in our area with it being the last weekend before Christmas. A lot of plans are going to be ruined tomorrow into sunday. I think Grinch would be a good name for this storm.

this storm is gonna either over or under perform and i dont know what to think its wreaking havoc on the models.

[forte408]

Freak, stop being such a weenie. Don't jump! The phase isn't even complete, the PV is looking like its going to a better position for us, radar has this storm NW of the model predictions, huge area of precipitation from all angles, it's all coming together.

[Maloga]

Forte408,

As I don't really know the difference between NOAA and NAO, and your not only the closest to me, but are following this very closely, what is your feeling about what we get in our area? Is this going to be just a nice hit and a day of shoveling or are we looking at the big hit scenario. I have elderly family nearby and work issue that I'd like to try and plan for. I realize nothing is set.....and there are plenty of variables but at this point I'd just like to get a "local" opinion. Can't always trust the 'bennies"

[joeyf714]

snowfreak188, on Dec 18 2009, 01:23 PM, said:

she better make the turn fast and furious in the next 4-6hour,still cant believe the blizzard watch for me i dont see that happening.

so you dont think we will get hit hard??