62 replies to this topic

[WrathOfPaulII]

my point and click has a 70% chance of heavy rain sunday night and monday. it's funny how FIVE days out a rainstorm is always a sure bet but if it was a chance of snow it would be waffling back and fourth. LOL. I wonder if theres any meteorogical reason for that or if its just bad luck.

looks like a soaker either way...

[NYCSNOWMAN]

You are correct Wrath, always seems that way "RAINSTORM" a sure bet. Snow chances are SOoo tough to come by these days. I was reading on another board someone said:

The reasons for the high chances of snow are a listed below: (In Begin of Feb)

1. The cold air will be back
2. The AO will be around -2 which is optimal for snow chances
3. The -NAO and +PNA
4. The El Nino

Many say that they don't think we will get any snow because we had the "same" pattern in early January. However, the pattern never was right for snow in January as the AO went all the way down to -6 which was what was causing the dry air. However, that is not expected for late January into February.

Any thoughts>

[metfan4life]

It's a lock. Rainstorms never go away.

[shark253]

metfan4life, on Jan 21 2010, 01:47 AM, said:

It's a lock. Rainstorms never go away.

[NYCSNOWMAN]

Since we now have '"rain storm threads"

how much rain ?

Any thunder storms possible?

[NENJ_Snow]

Looks like a washout might be coming for Sunday-Monday. The GFS, GEFS, GGEM and DGEX have been showing 1-2+ inches of rain. Not only that, but highs might even get into the mid 50s. What a winter it's been so far, we can't get the storms when it's cold but we have more than enough storms when it's warm.

[metfan4life]

shark253, on Jan 20 2010, 08:31 PM, said:

It's true though.

[WrathOfPaulII]

well if its going to rain let it be in the 50s. I hate a cold raw rainy day.

[Virgaman]

wow we are getting desperate now making threads for rainstorms lololol

february and march will probably suck also tired of hearing wait till feb, wait for march, just bring on Spring now lol, sorry its just been a depressing winter , i know i need an attitude adjustment lol

[jimjesswill3]

Virgaman, on Jan 21 2010, 10:28 AM, said:

wow we are getting desperate now making threads for rainstorms lololol

february and march will probably suck also tired of hearing wait till feb, wait for march, just bring on Spring now lol, sorry its just been a depressing winter , i know i need an attitude adjustment lol

Someone needs to hit you with a big snowball!!!

[Virgaman]

jimjesswill3, on Jan 21 2010, 05:17 PM, said:

Someone needs to hit you with a big snowball!!!

hahahahhaa, sure but there is no snow in sight so fat chance for that

[icehater]

WrathOfPaulII, on Jan 20 2010, 05:51 PM, said:

my point and click has a 70% chance of heavy rain sunday night and monday. it's funny how FIVE days out a rainstorm is always a sure bet but if it was a chance of snow it would be waffling back and fourth. LOL. I wonder if theres any meteorogical reason for that or if its just bad luck.

looks like a soaker either way...

If you understand anything about weather there is a very obvious answer for that and I explained it yesterday.

[rgwp96]

icehater, on Jan 21 2010, 12:17 PM, said:

If you understand anything about weather there is a very obvious answer for that and I explained it yesterday.

dont know what you wrote but many seem to forget that you need to be in pretty much a perfect spot when the storm passes to get snow, for rain the storm can be 100s of miles away and you can still get rain. The rain shield is almost always bigger in coverage than the snow side(especially in our area) All anybody needs to do is see a surface map and see what im talking about

[icehater]

rgwp96, on Jan 21 2010, 01:50 PM, said:

dont know what you wrote but many seem to forget that you need to be in pretty much a perfect spot when the storm passes to get snow, for rain the storm can be 100s of miles away and you can still get rain. The rain shield is almost always bigger in coverage than the snow side(especially in our area) All anybody needs to do is see a surface map and see what im talking about

Basically same thing - eastern warm side precip expanse is much greater (4X multiple or more at times) than westerrn cold side in major storms. You almost can't miss the rain if you are on the east side of a storm whose circ affects you whereas the cold west side needs a near perfect storm placement. That's why we worru so much about sharp cutoffs in snow. No one worries about them in rain.

[Virgaman]

icehater, on Jan 21 2010, 08:00 PM, said:

Basically same thing - eastern warm side precip expanse is much greater (4X multiple or more at times) than westerrn cold side in major storms. You almost can't miss the rain if you are on the east side of a storm whose circ affects you whereas the cold west side needs a near perfect storm placement. That's why we worru so much about sharp cutoffs in snow. No one worries about them in rain.

oh i worry about sharp cutoffs in rain, ice, if a tropical storm or hurricane is coming, sometimes i am on the northern fringe hahhahahaahhahaa, but yea no sharp cuttoffs

[lab94]

Models still seem to be putting out 2" of rain here Sun-Mon. Had low here of 20 this morning and 18 the night before. With the ground frozen solid this could be a flooding mess. another problem I haven heard much talk about is the poss. of strong winds.

[vascudave]

yea this could really pose some big flooding issues if it pans out. this is the salt to the wounds at this point.

[lab94]

vascudave, on Jan 22 2010, 09:42 AM, said:

yea this could really pose some big flooding issues if it pans out. this is the salt to the wounds at this point.

Not really, Dr K came out with his out look for the rest of the winter..................................








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BTW.. for those that cant think on there own, this is a joke

[metfan4life]

Near 2 inches of rain for our area on the Euro. Jeez.

[NENJ_Snow]

According to the 00z GFS, most of us get 1.75 to 2.5 inches of rain. Looks like flooding could be an issue, even thunderstorms could be possible.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p60_084m.gif