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[Bevans777]

Current radar shows band of precipitation moving through Central PA and NY and this is associated with the warm advection push ahead of the clipper system. The surface low associated with the clipper is now located over Georgian Bay. To the south, precip is breaking out as a weak area of low pressure is riding through the DELMARVA and moisture is working north ahead of the height falls associated with the clipper. At the surface, a warm front is hung up along the ridge line of the mountains and dips south along the MasonDixon line. This front is quickly moving northeast and while temps were marginal at the 9am hour in Allentown PA, they are quickly rising as the front pulls north, but the system occludes and
thus the warm boundary layer air can only go so far north.

Once the push of warm air ahead of the clipper goes through in the form of that band, the precip will be much more convective and spotty in nature to the west of that band and thus its probably just rain showers late today, perhaps ending as a snow shower or two even in the city with no accumulation.

As the upper support for the clipper reaches the coast and closes off, it taps the moisture from the south with a band of good precip developing along the inverted trough, stretching through central NY into MA/CT/RI and the Cape. This area will be just to the east of the city, but in the viewing area. Rain can end as wet snow on eastern Long Island with a coating-1''. There will be a swath of 1-3 inches from Orange, Dutchess, Putnam counties into western CT (northern Fairfield, Litchfield and into central and southeastern CT through southern RI. This band will be slow to work eastward as the deepening coastal low wraps up. Some area in the heart of the band can pick up 4 or even 5 inches of snow.

Things get convective for the city tonight and tomorrow and thus winds come up and remain up tomorrow with gusts to 40 mph.

Sunday the precip should start a bit sooner (PM) and have it come in as a wintry mess, mainly north and west of the city through NW NJ. Its better to be early with the icy mix arriving than late! The other question mark will be how much precip can work into the area. There will be a split with the parent storm in the OH valley holding onto moisture and the convective action in the south shifting eastward. The northern extent of the good precip to our south is the X-factor. A Dry slot quickly follows Monday morning.

Bill Evans

[F5TornadoF5]

Thanks for the update.