1282 replies to this topic

[TatamyPA]

This is a new thread for the storm projected in the models for next week. Shown below is the 12z GFS total for it:

:

[jfio93]

its amazing 40 days without anything and now we r looking at 2 big storms in a row

[TatamyPA]

Here's NCEP extended forecast discussion for this 2/9 - 2/10 event. This is an excerpt - I am only including the part for this event:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
145 PM EST WED FEB 03 2010

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 06 2010 - 12Z WED FEB 10 2010

MID LEVEL SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY INDUCE ANOTHER GULF COAST LOW
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER THREAT ALONG ITS NORTH SIDE
THRU THE SRN PLAINS/TN VALLEY AND MID ATLC REGION MID WEEK WITH
ANOTHER REFORMING MILLER TYPE B CYCLOGENSISIS SET UP. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY 00Z-12Z CMC/00Z-12Z GFS/12Z GFS ENS MEANS AND 00Z
ECMWF ENS MEAN.

MDT/HVY PCPN ACROSS CA SAT AND SUN WITH ONLY MUCH WEAKER SYSTEMS
STAYING OFFSHORE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ROSENSTEIN

[lab94]

[njblizzard]

Its a bad luck starting a new storm thread when still tracking a blockbuster 2 days away....lol..you better delete this thread before 0z nam comes out...lol

[TatamyPA]

njblizzard, on Feb 3 2010, 06:23 PM, said:

Its a bad luck starting a new storm thread when still tracking a blockbuster 2 days away....lol..you better delete this thread before 0z nam comes out...lol

If the 0z NAM goes significantly south there may be people looking to delete the Superbowl storm thread...they will all be looking to jump on this train...lol

[yankee2274]

Weather experts. The track of the first storm probably affects the track of this storm in some way, no?

[jfio93]

yea it does just like yesterday storm which is now a super storm is affecting this super bowl storm

[icehater]

Not even looking at this storm until we get past the saturday storm but anyone that wants to deal with this storm, start looking how far north it gets because it's going to be a repeat situation.

[TatamyPA]

icehater, on Feb 3 2010, 07:25 PM, said:

Not even looking at this storm until we get past the saturday storm but anyone that wants to deal with this storm, start looking how far north it gets because it's going to be a repeat situation.

Can't say I blame you...it's kind of in the background at this point - I'll continue to post relevant info as it comes out (model output, discussions etc...) It will be interesting to see what effect if any this weekend's storm has on this one.

[njblizzard]

I told you not to post this thread until later...lol

[TatamyPA]

Here is the model output on this storm from the 0z GFS:



This threat is very much still out there. Here's latest NCEP discussion:



PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
348 AM EST THU FEB 04 2010

VALID 12Z MON FEB 08 2010 - 12Z THU FEB 11 2010

AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY AS IT DEPICTS A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER WRN
NOAM AND AN ELONGATED MEAN TROF EXTENDING FROM SERN CANADA INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. WITHIN THIS CONFIGURATION THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES SHOW THE GREATEST SPREAD WITH FLOW FROM THE NRN HALF
OF THE PLAINS EWD... WITH A FURTHER COMPLICATION BEING THE EXTENT
TO WHICH THIS FLOW INTERACTS WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY REACHING THE
SWRN CONUS BY THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. OVER AT LEAST
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
INDICATING THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW IN THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS
VALLEY REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIOR ENSEMBLES HAD BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY DIVERSE TO YIELD ONLY MODERATELY WEAK ELONGATED
TROFFING IN THEIR MEANS BUT 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL AVERAGE FROM THE PAST 1-2
DAYS. CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND ENSEMBLES EXPECTS THIS FEATURE TO
TRACK EWD WITH TIME... REACHING THE MID ATLC/NORTHEAST AROUND
WED-THU. TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE CORE OF POSITIVE HGT
ANOMALIES FCST TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HUDSON BAY AND THE DAVIS
STRAIT SUGGEST FLOW WITHIN THE MEAN TROF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
PROGRESSIVE. THIS RELATIONSHIP SUPPORTS THE FASTER TREND IN
OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS OVER THE PAST DAY AND RECOMMENDS LEANING
AWAY FROM THE SLOWER SOLNS OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD SUCH AS THE 00Z
CANADIAN. BETTER CONTINUITY AND CONSENSUS ARE DESIRED BEFORE
LATCHING ONTO THE DEEP SFC LOWS WHICH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP
OFF THE EAST COAST BY DAY 7 THU... THOUGH AT LEAST SOME RESIDUAL
SFC TROFFING IS REASONABLE. MEANWHILE GIVEN THE TIME FRAME
INVOLVED THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS DISPLAY BETTER THAN AVERAGE
AGREEMENT WITH A COMPACT ERN PAC SYSTEM FCST TO BRUSH CA BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ECMWF RUNS HAVE TRENDED EWD WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST DAY BUT THE 00Z GEFS MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE
MID LVL ENERGY MAY STILL BE PULLED A LITTLE FARTHER SWD THAN THE
GFS/CMC.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE 00Z GFS SHOWS MORE SWWD ELONGATION OF NRN
PLAINS/ROCKIES FLOW THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE... FAVORING A BLEND
OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GEFS MEAN DAYS 3-5 SUN-TUE TO REPRESENT CONSENSUS
AND ACCOUNT FOR CONTINUED DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES OVER THE CONUS AS
WELL AS THE ERN PAC. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME QUESTIONABLY
DEEP WITH THEIR UPR LOWS CROSSING THE EAST COAST BY DAYS 6-7
WED-THU... SO THE ECMWF/GEFS MEAN BLEND LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GEFS
MEAN FOR THAT PART OF THE FCST.

RAUSCH

[TatamyPA]

Here's snowfall forecast for the 2/9 - 2/10 event from 06z DGEX:

[TatamyPA]

Here's an excerpted update from NCEP for next weeks storm:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
835 AM EST THU FEB 04 2010

VALID 12Z MON FEB 08 2010 - 12Z THU FEB 11 2010

...UPDATED PRELIMS...
AGAIN TODAY USING GFS/ECMWF ENS MEANS RESOLVES DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AND GIVES A SIMPLIFIED SOLUTION THRU THE PERIOD. 00Z GFS/ECMWF ENS
MEANS USED DAYS 3-5 WITH MORE INCORPORATION OF THE 06Z RUN OF GFS
AND ITS ENS MEAN DAYS 6 AND 7.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE US EAST OF THE ROCKIES SUN TO MID
WEEK WHILE A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE INDUCES A SRN PLAINS/INTERIOR
GULF COAST LOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL OF A REFORMING
MILLER TYPE B SYSTEM EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST MID WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER TO THE MS VALLEY AND EWD TOWARDS THE MID
ATLC REGION/NORTHEAST WED. POLAR VORTEX DROP BY MEANS AND OP
MODELS BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL COLD SURGE INTO ERN CONUS LATE WEEK.
MEAN WRN CONUS TROF KEEPS PAC SYSTEMS DROPPING SWD JUST OFFSHORE
CA COAST THIS PERIOD.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN

[TatamyPA]

This system continues to be tracked by the models - however GFS and DGEX are showing a weaker solution on recent runs. Latest GGEM run indicates a light to moderate snowfall.

[LongIslandCoastalWx]

The 12Z Euro gives us this:



I think it's like 968mb at that point.

[TatamyPA]

LongIslandCoastalWx, on Feb 4 2010, 06:00 PM, said:

The 12Z Euro gives us this:



I think it's like 968mb at that point.

If something like that comes through this region with that type of strength and it gives us snow then Kocin is going to have write up a Volume 3 for his book series just for this winter. Furthermore, TWC folks will be wondering why they did not produce a show about this for their "It Could Happen Tomorrow" series.

[TatamyPA]

Here is what the 12z Euro has for 2/9 - 2/10 at 168hrs:

[LongIslandCoastalWx]

12Z GGEM at 144 hrs

[LongIslandCoastalWx]

00Z GFS at 144 hrs