16 replies to this topic

[rgwp96]

to bad its 84 hours away.  Im getting sick of this winter

[img width=600 height=450]http://i19.tinypic.com/4cctmhe.gif[/img]

[robbbs]

Henry Margusity was predicting a snowstorm on Sunday for anyone north of route 80, including NYC, on his video today. So far, the NAM is his friend but when Henry calls for snow...

[Stormchaser]

That's all snow for NYC by the way.

00z NAM sounding: all levels below freezing right down to the surface:

http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Knyc.txt

[Stormchaser]

Just for fun this far in advance -- but the 00z NAM actually depicts a significant 4"+ snow for most of the region using a 10:1 ratio:

[img width=600 height=450]http://www.nco.ncep....am_p60_084s.gif[/img]


The Sunday event had my interest all along; hopefully we receive at least something prior to the arrival of spring around March 7th. High pressure a bit north of the normal SE Quebec position (for a big snow) in fact it's up near hudson bay. However, strong northerly flow should keep the track of the primary far enough south so that the majority of us are frozen. Too early to give an analysis on this as many things can change wrt track and intensity of the secondary low. For now, hope for continued trends in our favor. LOL

[weatherbowl]

The trend this morning is colder for the system on Sunday night. Coastal low develops and heads toward the 40- 70 benchmark. Hopefully the trend continues.

[summer]

The mets are clearly taking a wait and see on this storm - temps seem to be coming down in every weather report...

[weatherbowl]

Summer-I don't blame them for taking a wait and see the way this winter has been. I just watch the overall trend and expect anything.  :-

[robbbs]

Last night's GFS run also shows an even bigger snow event 8 days out. Of course, with that time frame, it's meaningless but it does show that winter is being slow to leave.

[snowfreak188]

nothing to get hyped over have to say it again!!!  :(

[robbbs]

Quote

nothing to get hyped over have to say it again!!!  :(

Snowfreak188, the Sunday/Monday event has decent potential, although with the usual complexities of mixing possibilities. Models have been very consistent, however, with a fairly long duration event. Inland looks pretty safe that it's an all snow event, and the coast probably favors snow over rain but is uncertain still.

[Virgaman]

robbbs, cant the cold air be so strong that it supressed the moisture here up my way in poughkeepsie and the rest of the hudson valley?

[robbbs]

Quote

robbbs, cant the cold air be so strong that it supressed the moisture here up my way in poughkeepsie and the rest of the hudson valley?

Vic, for what it's worth, the current models keep the heaviest precip south of you. Bull's eye is central NJ. My sense is that precip quantities will expand further north in time.

[Virgaman]

you would think that robbbs and i hope that happens, the trends seems to be further south and eventually weakening the system, but i am not sure if i am reading the maps right at this point, it does look like a long duration of light precip afterwards too hanging around.

certainly looks active up to march 10th, and considering a week ago this storm coming sunday into monday had us pegged at 50s and heavy rain, so this is better lol

[listarz]

What was it that Mulder said in the X-files? "Trust noone"? Well... here in weatherland its "trust no models"! LOL

[icehater]

Quote

you would think that robbbs and i hope that happens, the trends seems to be further south and eventually weakening the system, but i am not sure if i am reading the maps right at this point, it does look like a long duration of light precip afterwards too hanging around.

certainly looks active up to march 10th, and considering a week ago this storm coming sunday into monday had us pegged at 50s and heavy rain, so this is better lol

I'm not as sold as you guys on snow chances after this weekend. That first week is the best chance but the pattern doesn't favor it and would likely keep any storm well east of us. Toward mid month we have a big SE ridge heat pump that will push us north of 60 and maybe to 70 in inland areas. The midwest storm is intense out there but really weakens as it keeps redeveloping east. This could be a huge storm in SE Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and central and western Illinois. Chicago is very borderline.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p48_084l.gif

Mid month heat build-up - looks like a map right out of May or June.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...p348384_s.shtml

[Virgaman]

WOW!!!

bye bye  to winter for sure!!!!

[njblizzard]

Well, i am getting alot of work done in my house right now so, i dont know if i have to root for snow or sun. I dont want them to take days off or come inside with dirty boots.