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[ctt447]

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...00Z GFS/NAM HAVE BOTH
TRENDED COLDER WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA
SUN NIGHT AND MON. THIS PRIMARY LOW SHOULD STALL OUT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER REX BLOCK IN PLACE OVER GREENLAND AND THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUN NIGHT AND PASSES JUST S OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK ON
MON. PARTIAL THICKNESSES...H8 TEMPS AND RAW MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
A COLDER SOLUTION WITH SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME
FLIES IN THE OINTMENT SUGGESTING MIXED PRECIP MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-95...NAMELY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND WITH ITS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE TOO FAR EAST TO
BE IN AN IDEAL POSITION FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...AND WSW MID LEVEL
FLOW WHICH COULD EASILY BRING IN WARMER AIR ALOFT IF THE PRIMARY LOW
AND RESULTANT WAA ARE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. AS A RESULT HAVE NOT
TINKERED WITH LONG TERM FORECAST ATTM EXCEPT TO MAKE P-TYPE FOR SUN
NIGHT AND MON MORE CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST TEMPS....WITH A WINTRY
MIX SUN EVENING CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATER SUN NIGHT...THEN CHANGING
BACK TO A WINTRY MIX ON MON.