10 replies to this topic

[Stormchaser]

CFS ENSO region 3.4 fcst the next several months -- full-fledged la nina by late spring into the summer months. Some models take it into the -1.0/-1.3 range indicative of a moderate -ENSO event. Implications? There are many - but if we have a moderate or God-forbid strong La nina heading into next winter; time to focus on winter 2008-09. Weak ninas following el ninos are typically good winters in the NE; however, mod or strong ninas are primarily horrible. Warm and dry with no sub-tropical jet and a monster progressive northern branch with the arctic air locked up north of the border. These are all just "WHAT IF'S" right now - don't take this seriously.


[img width=600 height=463]http://www.cpc.ncep....ino34SSTMon.gif[/img]

[Stormchaser]

Notice there's quite a spread in model forecasts -- some keep it as a weak nina, others take it to full power strong intensity. Obviously we'd rather the former as it's much more favorable for winter. Either way, we're probably looking at an above average Atlantic tropical season as most nino to ninas are per historical climatology. Implications for spring into summer are generally warmer than normal for the eastern US with plenty of severe T-storm opportunities. Northern branch is more powerful in Nina summers; hence more cool fronts and convection. Note how the T-storm activity rapidly died off after August 1st last summer -- in tandem with the onset of the el nino.

[lab94]

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Notice there's quite a spread in model forecasts -- some keep it as a weak nina, others take it to full power strong intensity. Obviously we'd rather the former as it's much more favorable for winter. Either way, we're probably looking at an above average Atlantic tropical season as most nino to ninas are per historical climatology. Implications for spring into summer are generally warmer than normal for the eastern US with plenty of severe T-storm opportunities. Northern branch is more powerful in Nina summers; hence more cool fronts and convection. Note how the T-storm activity rapidly died off after August 1st last summer -- in tandem with the onset of the el nino.

Thanks Storm, warmer than normal spring and summer? Wow, great. First a crappy winter and now I get to look foward to all the MY POOL TEMP post (start the tread now)during the summer.LOL ;D

[img width=115 height=110]http://smileys.on-my...moticon-181.gif[/img]

[Virgaman]

good saves us the speculation of a possible good winter lololol

its fascinating that when these things turn up to show a warm winter, it usually happens, but when it shows as a cold winter, something goes wrong and screws us over lolol ::)

[giants1156]

hard enough to forcast sunday never mind next year

[Stormchaser]

That's why I said not to take this seriously.

[rgwp96]

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Notice there's quite a spread in model forecasts -- some keep it as a weak nina, others take it to full power strong intensity. Obviously we'd rather the former as it's much more favorable for winter. Either way, we're probably looking at an above average Atlantic tropical season as most nino to ninas are per historical climatology. Implications for spring into summer are generally warmer than normal for the eastern US with plenty of severe T-storm opportunities. Northern branch is more powerful in Nina summers; hence more cool fronts and convection. Note how the T-storm activity rapidly died off after August 1st last summer -- in tandem with the onset of the el nino.

Thanks Storm, warmer than normal spring and summer? Wow, great. First a crappy winter and now I get to look foward to all the MY POOL TEMP post (start the tread now)during the summer.LOL ;D

[img width=115 height=110]http://smileys.on-my...moticon-181.gif[/img]

lab my current pool temp is 25

[NYBrit]

Thanks Storm, warmer than normal spring and summer? Wow, great. First a crappy winter and now I get to look foward to all the MY POOL TEMP post (start the tread now)during the summer.LOL ;D

[img width=115 height=110]http://smileys.on-my-web.com/repository/MSN_Emoticons/MSN-Emoticon-181.gif[/img]
[/quote]

Well the mods can start a whole board dedicated to pool temps so those of us who DON'T HAVE ONE!!! won't be made to feel so jealous!  :D

[bzimmer]

Hi Storm....nice to meet you..........what's your gut feeling on the La Nina??.....weak or strong??....I love winter..hate to see it go....I'm hoping for a weak one....here's to a gret winter in 07-08

[lab94]

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Notice there's quite a spread in model forecasts -- some keep it as a weak nina, others take it to full power strong intensity. Obviously we'd rather the former as it's much more favorable for winter. Either way, we're probably looking at an above average Atlantic tropical season as most nino to ninas are per historical climatology. Implications for spring into summer are generally warmer than normal for the eastern US with plenty of severe T-storm opportunities. Northern branch is more powerful in Nina summers; hence more cool fronts and convection. Note how the T-storm activity rapidly died off after August 1st last summer -- in tandem with the onset of the el nino.

Thanks Storm, warmer than normal spring and summer? Wow, great. First a crappy winter and now I get to look foward to all the MY POOL TEMP post (start the tread now)during the summer.LOL ;D

[img width=115 height=110]http://smileys.on-my...moticon-181.gif[/img]

lab my current pool temp is 25

LMAO, next your going to tell us that you cut a hole in for the polar bear club. LOL
My pool is at 102 (My jacuzzi tub) not big but it is easy to keep clean.

[Stormchaser]

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Hi Storm....nice to meet you..........what's your gut feeling on the La Nina??.....weak or strong??....I love winter..hate to see it go....I'm hoping for a weak one....here's to a gret winter in 07-08

Nice to meet you as well, bzimmer. As I stated earlier - it's all speculation this far out. I'm 99% certain we're going to have a la nina next winter; not sure how intense just yet. I'm leaning towards weak or moderate right now as subsurface waters are still rather warm -- not a huge reversal in terms of SST's. Although the SOI (southern oscillation index) is extremely positive now which usually signals the onset of a la nina. Will be interesting to watch evolve.