686 replies to this topic

[LongIslandCoastalWx]

00Z GFS Total QPf



NYC/LI Special.

[njblizzard]

 LongIslandCoastalWx, on Feb 10 2010, 12:35 AM, said:

00Z GFS Total QPf



NYC/LI Special.

President day storm!!!!

[metfan4life]

Euro also has something.

[njblizzard]

still has it on the 6z gfs....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p24_156m.gif

[TatamyPA]

0z Euro has offshore solution:



0z NOGAPS also has offshore solution



06z DGEX is quite weak:



We'll have to continue to track it but as of now the models with the exception of the GFS are not too excited about this event.

[Stormchaser]

I simply can't force myself to look at a next event when we have a major one ongoing right now. Will delve into it more tomorrow.

[njblizzard]

BTW, what euro said about this weekend storm? just curious...

[TatamyPA]

12z GFS totals - show a near miss



12z JMA totals - show a near miss



12z GGEM does not show the event at all. Bottom line is models are not showing anything too interesting for this event.

[metfan4life]

Euro is a near miss.

[njblizzard]

Models will have better handle it tomm once this storm is out of here.

[njblizzard]

18z GFS.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_138m.gif

[metfan4life]

18z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_138l.gif

[weathergun]

 Stormchaser, on Feb 10 2010, 01:37 PM, said:

I simply can't force myself to look at a next event when we have a major one ongoing right now. Will delve into it more tomorrow.

Same here.

[metfan4life]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...ats/threats.gif

[TatamyPA]

Here's the latest DGEX total for the potential weekend event. Would not get too excited about it until more of the models start showing it with some consistency ie. Euro, GGEM...

[TatamyPA]

Here's HPC extended range discussion for the weekend. As you may know many mid-atlantic cities have established new all time seasonal snow records this week. Each new event brings us further into uncharted territory insofar as these records are concerned. Long range outlooks (the 6-10/8-14 day outlooks which predict the present pattern to persist for at least the next 2 weeks) notwithstanding the probability of these records being added to decreases with time.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 PM EST WED FEB 10 2010

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 13 2010 - 12Z WED FEB 17 2010

AN UPPER HIGH NEAR GREENLAND AND A MEAN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES... COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL HGTS EXTENDING
WWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CANADA... SHOULD CAUSE
UPSTREAM SHRTWVS ENTERING WESTERN CANADA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
SEPARATE INTO TWO OR MORE STREAMS. THIS SPLITTING OF FLOW IS FCST
TO OCCUR MUCH FARTHER NORTH THEN SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. MODELS
SHOW WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.
HOWEVER THERE ARE MEANINGFUL DIFFS IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE
SHRTWVS REACHING WESTERN CANADA AND TO WHAT EXTENT THEY SEPARATE
OVER CANADA. THERE ARE ALSO POTENTIAL ISSUES WITH HOW PIECES OF
ENERGY MAY INTERACT WITH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MEAN UPPER LOW.

AS OF EARLY DAY 3 SAT...MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CONTINUITY... AND TRENDS OF THE GFS
OVER THE PAST DAY... FAVOR A SOLN ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE SPREAD.
THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN AND ECMWF MEAN BEST REPRESENT THIS
PREFERENCE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THERE IS SOME SPREAD WITH THE
SPEED AND STRENGTH OF A SMALL BUT STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY DAYS 4/5. THE ECMWF IS IN
THE FASTER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD BUT HAS TRENDED NOTICEABLY
SLOWER THAN ITS 12Z RUN AND IS SUPPORTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE 00Z
UKMET. ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 06Z GFS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WHILE
THE CMC IS THE EXTREME SLOW/AMPLIFIED SOLN. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFERS A REASONABLE INTERMEDIATE
SOLN AT THIS TIME. AFTER THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE EAST COAST THE
TRACK SPREAD INCREASES. THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC AND AVERAGE OF
ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOW A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK THAN RECENT
GFS RUNS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES. AT LEAST A COMPROMISE CLOSER TO THE
COAST THAN THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS BEST IN LIGHT OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN AND BEHAVIOR OF PREVIOUS SYSTEMS THIS SEASON. FARTHER
WEST... THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON RESOLVING THE COMPLEX SHORTWAVE
PATTERN OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC. GIVEN
THE TIME FRAME INVOLVED MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OFFERS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AMPLIFIED 00Z ECMWF AND
OTHER SOLNS THAT ARE FLATTER WITH ONE OR MORE OF THE SHRTWVS.

12Z UPDATE... THE CMC IS A SLOW AND EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIED OUTLIER
BUT REMAINING CONSENSUS INCLUDING AN EARLY LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
FAVORS TIMING SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE UPPER LOW
TRACKING FROM THE UPR MIDWEST TO EAST COAST EARLY-MID PERIOD...
FAVORING AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THAT CONSENSUS. SFC DIFFS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE OVER THE CONUS APPEAR LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN DIFFS
ALOFT. AN INTERMEDIATE SOLN STILL APPEARS BEST AFTER THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS FROM THE EAST COAST. CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO
PRECLUDE MEANINGFUL CHANGES FOR OTHER FEATURES.

UPDATED PRELIM PREFERENCES YIELDED A 70/30 00Z ECMWF/CMC BLEND FOR
DAY 3 SAT WITH SOME INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
THEREAFTER... WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF/EC ENSMEAN USED BY
DAYS 5-7 MON-WED. THE FINAL FCST INCORPORATES MORE WEIGHTING OF
THE SLOWER 12Z CONSENSUS WITH THE UPR MIDWEST TO EAST COAST SYSTEM
DAYS 3-5 AND A COMPROMISE TRACK ONCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE WRN
ATLC.

RAUSCH/JAMES

[metfan4life]

0z GFS

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gf...bTSLPp06126.gif

[lab94]

totals... NW NJ FTL Oh th e dark blue looks like a rabbit of the coast

[LongIslandCoastalWx]

This one, if the GFS timing is right, can have high ratios. Could be 15:1 or higher.

[TatamyPA]

0z Model Summary for this event:

GGEM - suppressed

Euro - exits OTS from VA



6z Model Summary

DGEX - suppressed

GFS - possible light to moderate event for the area



Bottom line is there is much less model agreement for this event now as there was at the same point for the event that just ended.