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[LongIslandWthr]

I know most Mets are saying Snow-Ice-Rain for my area, but is it possible they are underestimating the cold? I know anything is possible but could it actually be all snow with just a little mixing for Long Island?

[robbbs]

Quote

I know most Mets are saying Snow-Ice-Rain for my area, but is it possible they are underestimating the cold? I know anything is possible but could it actually be all snow with just a little mixing for Long Island?

I suppose one could say anything is possible in weather so nothing is ever certain. However, the cards really go against an all snow scenario along the coast. The level of cold is not as intense as the one last week and the new coastal is forecast to be rather weak which would not help in wrapping in colder air. The GFS is colder than the NAM but the NAM has consistently outperformed the GFS all winter (and the GFS has far less precip). A layer of upper air warming would change the snow to a mix even if it stayed below freezing on the surface along the coast, and that's a big if as well. Mixing issues may even extend well inland so it seems very unlikely for the coast to stay all snow. We can always watch the later model runs for any changes.