123 replies to this topic

[icehater]

Looks like a strong ridge and a lot of heat for the eastern third of the nation builds in next week and potentially a hot Memorial day weekend. This heat looks to build well into eastern Canada so no backdoor fronts if the data today verifies. Let's track it and see if it happens.


Early week start of the heat building:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grb...8&cu=latest

Later in the week:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...1712!!/

GFS presentation:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_252l.gif

[Stormchaser]

Ice,

I'd have to agree at this point. Pattern should break to a much warmer one in the Eastern US by the final week of May. Models are in fairly good consensus and indices such as the NAO/AO will be rising. Wouldn't be surprised to see our first heat wave of the season occur the end of May or early June to break in our hot summer on the way (IMO).

[Stormchaser]

By the looks of the pattern progression, I think we'll be in the heat before Memorial Day weekend, possibly approaching 90 as early as Tuesday of next week. We've got easterly flow w/ surface HP ridge near 40N latitude this weekend; high gradually builds south and weakens with time so that much warmer 850mb temps bubble southeastward from Canada. In fact on a W/NWLY downsloping flow this heat spell has the chance to really go to town next week. Will be interesting to watch unfold.

[icehater]

Stormchaser, on May 19 2010, 07:19 PM, said:

By the looks of the pattern progression, I think we'll be in the heat before Memorial Day weekend, possibly approaching 90 as early as Tuesday of next week. We've got easterly flow w/ surface HP ridge near 40N latitude this weekend; high gradually builds south and weakens with time so that much warmer 850mb temps bubble southeastward from Canada. In fact on a W/NWLY downsloping flow this heat spell has the chance to really go to town next week. Will be interesting to watch unfold.

Agree - next week looks hot. Plus I think we'll surpass expected high temps tomorrow and Friday too. I'll turn the pool heater up tomorrow for the first time and get the water to 83--84.

[Virgaman]

icehater, on May 20 2010, 03:37 AM, said:

Agree - next week looks hot. Plus I think we'll surpass expected high temps tomorrow and Friday too. I'll turn the pool heater up tomorrow for the first time and get the water to 83--84.

I plan on opening up my pool next friday, mine is above ground, been thinking of getting a heater for it, instead of using the solar cover, its a PIA to roll up

[BRINGONTHEBIGONE]

Virgaman, on May 20 2010, 10:16 AM, said:

I plan on opening up my pool next friday, mine is above ground, been thinking of getting a heater for it, instead of using the solar cover, its a PIA to roll up

Virg..I also have above ground pool, but it's a oval, so if you have a oval you can do what I did, at the far end of the pool on both end sides I installed 8x8's into the ground with a 12x2 shelf on top of each one, making sure the shelf is level with the pool, then I purchase the built in pool solar panle reel and bolted that down onto the shelfs, so actually what you are doing is making your above ground solar blanket install as a in gorund pool..

[Virgaman]

BRINGONTHEBIGONE, on May 20 2010, 03:35 PM, said:

Virg..I also have above ground pool, but it's a oval, so if you have a oval you can do what I did, at the far end of the pool on both end sides I installed 8x8's into the ground with a 12x2 shelf on top of each one, making sure the shelf is level with the pool, then I purchase the built in pool solar panle reel and bolted that down onto the shelfs, so actually what you are doing is making your above ground solar blanket install as a in gorund pool..

yes mine is also oval 16 by 32, thanks for the advice

[Stormchaser]

We're already seeing MOS guidance underestimate high temps. Today was very warm - high of 82.6. Tomorrow will be mid 80s at least, cool off for Sat,Sun, Mon, then the heat and humidity arrive in a big way for the last week of May!

[icehater]

Stormchaser, on May 20 2010, 10:20 PM, said:

We're already seeing MOS guidance underestimate high temps. Today was very warm - high of 82.6. Tomorrow will be mid 80s at least, cool off for Sat,Sun, Mon, then the heat and humidity arrive in a big way for the last week of May!

Storm,

My general rule of thumb is add 4-5 degrees in April-June to all high temps forecasted when winds are west. Exceptions are only cool unstable canadian air days when forecasted highs can easily be overstated. Agree - easy mid 80's tomorrow in a lot of places. My pool is warming, now at 75.

[Stormchaser]

icehater, on May 20 2010, 11:37 PM, said:

Storm,

My general rule of thumb is add 4-5 degrees in April-June to all high temps forecasted when winds are west. Exceptions are only cool unstable canadian air days when forecasted highs can easily be overstated. Agree - easy mid 80's tomorrow in a lot of places. My pool is warming, now at 75.

Ice, agreed. Even with SSE winds I've got a temp of 82.8 right now, already above the forecast high. Pool was 68 early this morning but should be above 80 with the strong sun and the heater on.

Next week we'll have a sub-tropical low approach from the SE, which will keep temperatures moderated in the 80s, but once the upper ridge pushes that cut-off swd by Wed-Thurs, we can really go to town with big heat. Obviously won't last long at this time of year but we've been in a warm stretch since March 1st. Very indicative of a hot summer IMO although surprising many forecast models have a cool summer for much of the country, along with NOAA. I know JB's on my side with the heat, so we'll see what happens.

[shark253]

My forecast highs for next week have dropped considerably. Near 90 for next Tuesday and Wednesday is now low 80s for highs and even has me cooler into the 70s for highs by week's end. So much for this heat. Anyways, I hope we can get some heat next week. I think I need a tan.

[icehater]

shark253, on May 21 2010, 12:37 PM, said:

My forecast highs for next week have dropped considerably. Near 90 for next Tuesday and Wednesday is now low 80s for highs and even has me cooler into the 70s for highs by week's end. So much for this heat. Anyways, I hope we can get some heat next week. I think I need a tan.

So your read of a ten day forecast is your bible. Everything is set in stone, now. Remember how those 60's forecast worked out to 85-95 heat the last time you posted something like this. Next week will come down to a LP in the south and a possible BD front NE of us. On days models favor that BD front (and models are prone to favor it) they'll cool temps. On days they d'ont then they'll forecast temps to 90. And as for reading temp forecasts just look at how easily todays temps have been exceeded within 24 hours of forecast vs 7-10 days.

[LongIslandCoastalWx]

shark253, on May 21 2010, 12:37 PM, said:

My forecast highs for next week have dropped considerably. Near 90 for next Tuesday and Wednesday is now low 80s for highs and even has me cooler into the 70s for highs by week's end. So much for this heat. Anyways, I hope we can get some heat next week. I think I need a tan.

Don't start again. The last time time I created that thread, you gave me a hard time. Yeah, how did that go?

I'm at 79.5 degrees, even with the winds out of the E.

The long range ECMWF (interpretated by pro met Brett Anderson) shows the unseasonable warm conditions continuing in the east for the next several weeks.

[shark253]

icehater, on May 21 2010, 05:10 PM, said:

So your read of a ten day forecast is your bible. Everything is set in stone, now. Remember how those 60's forecast worked out to 85-95 heat the last time you posted something like this. Next week will come down to a LP in the south and a possible BD front NE of us. On days models favor that BD front (and models are prone to favor it) they'll cool temps. On days they d'ont then they'll forecast temps to 90. And as for reading temp forecasts just look at how easily todays temps have been exceeded within 24 hours of forecast vs 7-10 days.

Give me a break...who said everything is in stone. We'll see how hot it gets next week. You are the one who makes it sound like this heat is in stone. Wait till early next week and then start talking about heat. Yes, the chance does exist, but nothing is ever a guarantee when it comes to weather, so what makes you so sure this heat is coming. Weather is Full of Surprises!

[shark253]

LongIslandCoastalWx, on May 21 2010, 05:58 PM, said:

Don't start again. The last time time I created that thread, you gave me a hard time. Yeah, how did that go?

I'm at 79.5 degrees, even with the winds out of the E.

The long range ECMWF (interpretated by pro met Brett Anderson) shows the unseasonable warm conditions continuing in the east for the next several weeks.

Where did you come from? You are still here, I thought you once said to this board that you are leaving because somebody upset you.

[LongIslandCoastalWx]

shark253, on May 21 2010, 02:22 PM, said:

Where did you come from? You are still here, I thought you once said to this board that you are leaving because somebody upset you.

I've been here the whole time.

[Stormchaser]

shark253, on May 21 2010, 02:02 PM, said:

Wait till early next week and then start talking about heat.

Then I guess you should stick to generic TWC, accuweather, and broadcast media forecasts which rarely veer far away from averages more than a couple days in advance. On this weather board we tell you the potentials of what can happen 7-10+ days in advance, outlining the meteorology behind the possibilities as well. Honestly - I wouldn't know half of what I know today regarding meteorology if I didn't read weather boards. If you don't mind having only 2 or less day notice of events, then just ignore the discussion between Ice and I re next week's heat. Just as in wintertime when we tell a snowstorm is coming 7 days prior yet your favorite radio station or TWC indicates flurries until 24 hours beforehand. Same idea. What you get here is invaluable information about pattern changes far in the future which apparently you don't appreciate very much.

[shark253]

Stormchaser, on May 21 2010, 07:19 PM, said:

Then I guess you should stick to generic TWC, accuweather, and broadcast media forecasts which rarely veer far away from averages more than a couple days in advance. On this weather board we tell you the potentials of what can happen 7-10+ days in advance, outlining the meteorology behind the possibilities as well. Honestly - I wouldn't know half of what I know today regarding meteorology if I didn't read weather boards. If you don't mind having only 2 or less day notice of events, then just ignore the discussion between Ice and I re next week's heat. Just as in wintertime when we tell a snowstorm is coming 7 days prior yet your favorite radio station or TWC indicates flurries until 24 hours beforehand. Same idea. What you get here is invaluable information about pattern changes far in the future which apparently you don't appreciate very much.

Storm...I have nothing against you forecasting long range or anyone else. I just happen not to believe in any long range forecast because nothing proves to me that it is a guarantee. If you can prove to me 120% accuracy about a weather phenomenon and it happens, then I will believe in long range, but until that happens, I do not bother with long range. I only look at 2 or possibly 3 days ahead in a weather forecast. I have seen your work on here and I do respect it and do appreciate it.

[icehater]

shark253, on May 21 2010, 02:02 PM, said:

Give me a break...who said everything is in stone. We'll see how hot it gets next week. You are the one who makes it sound like this heat is in stone. Wait till early next week and then start talking about heat. Yes, the chance does exist, but nothing is ever a guarantee when it comes to weather, so what makes you so sure this heat is coming. Weather is Full of Surprises!

You should go back and read your posts because it doesn't seem you understand what you write. And the last time Danny posted heat was coming in you did jump down his throat for it based on a forecast that was so far in left field vs reality (off by as much as 30 degrees for about 5 straight days) that it was a joke.

[shark253]

icehater, on May 21 2010, 08:40 PM, said:

You should go back and read your posts because it doesn't seem you understand what you write. And the last time Danny posted heat was coming in you did jump down his throat for it based on a forecast that was so far in left field vs reality (off by as much as 30 degrees for about 5 straight days) that it was a joke.

No..I dont think so...I understand perfectly well what I write. Maybe it is you who does not understand what you write. As for your friend Danny, well, excuse me for picking on your danny here, but, I am afraid this is a "Free Country". Freedom of Speech.