66 replies to this topic

[LongIslandWthr]

...NORTHEAST...
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN
A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
QUEBEC/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CHARACTERIZED BY
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE FORCING AND FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BECOME ENHANCED BY
FAVORABLE SHEAR BENEATH AT LEAST MODEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE
MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY FROM MIDDAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD.

[lab94]

for Thurs...

[rgwp96]

lab94, on May 26 2010, 08:42 AM, said:

for Thurs...

dont think ive ever seen it that high for area or even other areas.

[icehater]

rgwp96, on May 26 2010, 09:32 AM, said:

dont think ive ever seen it that high for area or even other areas.

Some of the storms that drop almost straight in from the north are the worst we get. So a lot of potential but the Nam has nothing for us and pushes the precip and storm chances further west.

[Stormchaser]

My main worry w/ tomorrow is not lack of instability but axis of convection. The highest Theta-E values may align just SW of the NYC area, from western NY state ssewd into EPA, MD and DE, with NJ being on the eastern fringe of activity. We'll see how tomorrow goes as this potential looks very interesting. Thermodynamics are there although dew points could be a little bit higher. But you can't expect 70+ TD's in late May -- still pretty early for that. However surface instability, CAPE/MUCAPE, lifted indices, and favorable unidirectional winds aloft will support bow echos again tomorrow w/ wind damage likely the primary threat. I'm excited for the first big boomers of the season! Just a little concerned the svr may pass just west of us.

[LongIslandWthr]

Wow the wind is roaring out there right now, Severe Thunderstorm warning woke me up

US51 KOKX 270539
SVROKX
NYC103-270630-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0013.100527T0539Z-100527T0630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
139 AM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 230 AM EDT...

* AT 132 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 16
MILES NORTH OF NORTHPORT...OR NEAR BRIDGEPORT...AND MOVING SOUTH AT
40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CENTERPORT...PORT JEFFERSON...STONY BROOK...SMITHTOWN...COMMACK...
CENTEREACH...CORAM...DIX HILLS...HAUPPAUGE...FARMINGVILLE...
RONKONKOMA...BRENTWOOD...MEDFORD...DEER PARK AND HOLBROOK

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

LAT...LON 4096 7340 4093 7335 4093 7330 4091 7323
4092 7322 4094 7316 4097 7316 4098 7311
4096 7310 4097 7308 4096 7304 4080 7296
4073 7340
TIME...MOT...LOC 0538Z 348DEG 38KT 4107 7324

$$

PW

[weatherbowl]

No rain here last night, all to my east. This afternoon it could all be to my west.

[icehater]

NMM model certainly favors some severe weather, especially just west of NYC, but Nam says not much. With NE winds in already I have to side with the nam.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...ef_l_loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...sw_p48_048l.gif

[vascudave]

went from 80*F to 76*F in a 8 mile span on the way to work this am, and that was heading to a more urban setting. was noticible as i felt the difference first.

[FreezingDrizzle]

Wind is off the water (east) now.

Temp went down from 78 to 72 in the past few hours.

[Stormchaser]

Agree I think svr chances are done for the city, E NJ, points east. Maybe western Jersey can get some action.

I've fallen from 79 at 6am down to 65 now with an east wind. Low clouds are socked in w/ a cool east breeze. Backdoor front coming through much earlier than forecast; mid 80s won't be reached today.

[NittanyLion]

Let's play find the BD cold front:

[NittanyLion]

icehater, on May 27 2010, 09:30 AM, said:

NMM model certainly favors some severe weather, especially just west of NYC, but Nam says not much. With NE winds in already I have to side with the nam.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...ef_l_loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...sw_p48_048l.gif

FWIW the NMM had yesterday's severe weather nearly perfectly modelled.

[shark253]

Gotta admit, feels refreshing today after dealing with yesterday's heat. Currently at 70 with cloudy skies. Too bad Thunderstorms are not looking likely today. I could use a few nice rumbles.

[NittanyLion]

shark253, on May 27 2010, 11:03 AM, said:

Gotta admit, feels refreshing today after dealing with yesterday's heat. Currently at 70 with cloudy skies. Too bad Thunderstorms are not looking likely today. I could use a few nice rumbles.

81 under mostly sunny skies here

[NittanyLion]

Mesoscale Discussion, Watch Likely:



...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 17Z...

OVERNIGHT MCS THAT SURGED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAS ENHANCED
NELY SFC WINDS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY...SWD ACROSS MUCH OF NJ/DE.
EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL MAINTAIN THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE INLAND WHILE
AREAS WEST OF THE WIND SHIFT WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID HEATING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS A REMNANT MCS
OVER ERN ONTARIO WHICH WILL SOON INFLUENCE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS UPSTATE NY. IT APPEARS SFC-BASED PARCELS WILL REACH
THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WHEN READINGS RISE INTO THE MID 80S
AND SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE 17-18Z TIME
FRAME...DEVELOPING/SPREADING SWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION LATER.
LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...AS WILL STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS.

[rgwp96]

temp down to 69 here

[bm55]

Overcast and 73 here. Big difference from yesterday's high of 94.

[NittanyLion]

82 degrees under mostly sunny skies
Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued

[NittanyLion]