21 replies to this topic

[Virgaman]

YES TO SHARE WITH ALL MY FRIENDS HEHE


So accumulations of over 2 inches of snow and sleet on the southern side will run from Belmar NJ, to Baltimore to Cumberland Maryland to Pittsburgh to Youngstown. On the north side, and this will be just snow, Oswego New York to Boston Mass. 5 inches or more look to run from Westerly Rhode island back to White Plains to Morristown NJ then to Martinsburg West Virginia, then northwest up to Erie Pa, then east to Binghamton then back east southeast to Westerly Rhode Island.

Amounts of up to 10 inches may occur near the Penn Turnpike from Harrisburg back to Somerset.

The precip in the east, will be of long duration as this may be a 36-48 hour storm in many places, though to be sure, 75% of the storm will probably occur in 12 hour period., but the end time for total SNOWFALL will be Tuesday evening at 6pm

[FreeRideNJ]

Before anyone asks...concerning JB's mention of Somerset, that is Somerset PA. 

[Snow15]

i think someone already mentioned JBs thinking

[yankee2274]

Virgaman, what is his take for our town, Potown?

[Virgaman]

hey yankee , good question, the qpf seems to think a general 2 to 5 inch snowfall, i think it will be long duration of mainly light snow for us, if i was a betting man i would say one to three inches up here for sunday nite with slightly higher amounts to our south, and maybe an additional one to two inches on monday with storm totals 3 to 5 inches, i doubt of any mixing issues up here, its more snow or no than snow or mix, just worried about drier air filtering down and cutting us off.

regardless a possible day off from school monday is looking very likely for you hehe

robbbs!!! chime in, what do you think up here in po town?

hey yankee, did you do the heart walk at st. lourdes high school today it was excellent weather

[yankee2274]

Na Virga, I went to the Marist-Siena game. GREAT GAME bye the way. Then had to do some chores with the wife. I still see us getting 6 or more.

[robbbs]

Quote

hey yankee , good question, the qpf seems to think a general 2 to 5 inch snowfall, i think it will be long duration of mainly light snow for us, if i was a betting man i would say one to three inches up here for sunday nite with slightly higher amounts to our south, and maybe an additional one to two inches on monday with storm totals 3 to 5 inches, i doubt of any mixing issues up here, its more snow or no than snow or mix, just worried about drier air filtering down and cutting us off.

regardless a possible day off from school monday is looking very likely for you hehe

robbbs!!! chime in, what do you think up here in po town?

hey yankee, did you do the heart walk at st. lourdes high school today it was excellent weather

Vic, too early to tell as there are significant differences in the NAM and GFS model solutions. The bigger issue for you in Po Town is not mixing but precip quantity that far north. My instinct tells me that the precip will extend further north and the coast will have more mixing issues than the models currently show. However, all of this is academic as we won't know until later model runs. Let's see if the 00z runs shed any light.

[LongIslandWthr]

Robbbs the 00z comes out at like 9:30 right?

[robbbs]

Quote

Robbbs the 00z comes out at like 9:30 right?

Yes, the NAM probably starts to run a little after 9:00 and by 9:30 or shortly thereafter we should know what it shows. Add about an hour to an hour and 15 minutes for the GFS which follows.

[listarz]

And we won't know for sure until Monday! LOL

[robbbs]

Quote

And we won't know for sure until Monday! LOL

Listarz, we'll try not to steal your happy ending (reference to your photo).

[Stormchaser]

Quote

Quote

Robbbs the 00z comes out at like 9:30 right?

Yes, the NAM probably starts to run a little after 9:00 and by 9:30 or shortly thereafter we should know what it shows. Add about an hour to an hour and 15 minutes for the GFS which follows.

Paramedics on stand-by....

[LongIslandWthr]

Quote

Quote

Quote

Robbbs the 00z comes out at like 9:30 right?

Yes, the NAM probably starts to run a little after 9:00 and by 9:30 or shortly thereafter we should know what it shows. Add about an hour to an hour and 15 minutes for the GFS which follows.

Paramedics on stand-by....

Thanks Storm, I may need them for these knife's are way to close to the computer LOL

[bm55]

robbbs,what's your call for me. thanks.

[LongIslandWthr]

Quote

robbbs,what's your call for me. thanks.

Might help telling him were you are.

[bm55]

robbbs knows where i am.

[robbbs]

Quote

robbbs knows where i am.

Bm, you couldn't be in a better spot if you tried. You're in the sweet spot at 6" to 8+", but watch those nowcasts for changes later. You never know.

[bm55]

thanks,robbbs ,i feel real confident now. but the way this winter has been,you're right,you never know. i spoke with rich vonnel from news 12 and he said it looks like the main core of precip will be over central-northern nj. with the best qpf shield for rockland and westchester co. and points south.
he explains that snow ratios will not be that high for the hudson valley, so he predicts a widespread 2-5 inches.

[robbbs]

Quote

thanks,robbbs ,i feel real confident now. but the way this winter has been,you're right,you never know. i spoke with rich vonnel from news 12 and he said it looks like the main core of precip will be over central-northern nj. with the best qpf shield for rockland and westchester co. and points south.
he explains that snow ratios will not be that high for the hudson valley, so he predicts a widespread 2-5 inches.

It's always a tough call on precip cut-off. However, the 12z GFS trended further north with precip and had you solidly at 0.50" to 0.75" liquid and the NAM was close to that or higher. That's why I think 6" to 8" for you is a good bet and you should also benefit from some extra elevation lift and cooling at Harriman.

[bm55]

robbbs,you are excatly right about the elevation lift. when i get an easterly flow of moisture it gets lifted by the rt.6 mtn. and drops heavy snow(or rain) on the west side which is harriman.