244 replies to this topic

[satellite_eyes]

It seems like we've been stuck in this pattern for the last 6 weeks. Almost every day there seems to be a front in our area. Weak cold fronts move through and get hung up and come back as warm fronts a day later. A lot times they stall out and become nearly stationary. There has been a constant train of small waves of low pressure riding along these fronts also. Overall il think we've had good weather and the forecasts have been more bark than bite but it's been relentless. Even though it's been warm and humid the pattern does not really seem like a summer one to me. I like several days of nice weather and at worst maybe a t-storm here and there but nothing that hangs around. I know we've had many days in the 80s but the constant calls for prolonged heat have not really happened yet. I am starting to wonder if it ever will. I know someone will argue that since we have been so far above normal overall but i guess to me i like the heat to come with some drier weather overall.

[icehater]

Here in central Jersey we've been in the warm air more often than you guys up there so it indeed has felt like a real summery pattern for a long time now with a lot of upper 80's to low 90's days. My electric bill can attest to that. I seem to have a lot more 90 days than Storm but I bet he's recording 87-89 on all those days he missed the 90 I recorded here. Yesterday was another example of the heat being so close as we went from a very warm humid mid day to the cooler east flow in the afternoon but just south of here Wrightstown to Philly reached the upper 80's and low 90's. I'll tell you one thing, I've never used the pool more than this year this early in the season, and we've already had a bunch of great nights for night swimming. Being on the milder side of northern stream storms is frustrating in winter but thie tradeoff to more summery springs is worth it to me. I prefer a longer summer over anything else in weather, and often envy the DC area in spring and early summer a lot more than I envy central and northern NE in winter. As we go thru the month the frontal boundary hang up will move north and the area will be exposed to longer and longer lasting periods of heat.

[Stormchaser]

icehater, on Jun 14 2010, 11:01 AM, said:

Here in central Jersey we've been in the warm air more often than you guys up there so it indeed has felt like a real summery pattern for a long time now with a lot of upper 80's to low 90's days. My electric bill can attest to that. I seem to have a lot more 90 days than Storm but I bet he's recording 87-89 on all those days he missed the 90 I recorded here. Yesterday was another example of the heat being so close as we went from a very warm humid mid day to the cooler east flow in the afternoon but just south of here Wrightstown to Philly reached the upper 80's and low 90's. I'll tell you one thing, I've never used the pool more than this year this early in the season, and we've already had a bunch of great nights for night swimming. Being on the milder side of northern stream storms is frustrating in winter but thie tradeoff to more summery springs is worth it to me. I prefer a longer summer over anything else in weather, and often envy the DC area in spring and early summer a lot more than I envy central and northern NE in winter. As we go thru the month the frontal boundary hang up will move north and the area will be exposed to longer and longer lasting periods of heat.

Good post Ice. And yeah all those days in the first week of June were basically 88-89, so I've fallen just short on several occasions. This is also the most I ever remember swimming before June 15th; usually you're lucky to get one or two days before mid June.

Satellite - I definitely see where you're coming from, and I'm anxious to get the big heat in here as we're too moist now (ton of mushrooms and ticks in the lawn here), but keep in mind this part of the summer was expected to be the most back and forth, with gradual progression to more sustained heat by late June then especially July and August. Everything seems to be on track from my POV and by next weekend I think we'll be pretty happy w/ low 90s and sunshine building in.

[satellite_eyes]

Yes Ice i have seen that difference between you and us up here. Like you said i'm sure everything will eventually push farther north as we get into the actual summer season. Even up here we've been pretty warm at night and that definitely makes for good swimming weather at night.

Storm - we do seem to be right on track with your outlook which is good. Hopefully things will break at some point and we get those longer stretches of nice weather. I guess this is more of a late spring type of pattern just a much warmer one. Like ice said it will probably eventually head more north.

[Kelli013]

Stormchaser, on Jun 14 2010, 12:03 PM, said:

Good post Ice. And yeah all those days in the first week of June were basically 88-89, so I've fallen just short on several occasions. This is also the most I ever remember swimming before June 15th; usually you're lucky to get one or two days before mid June.

Satellite - I definitely see where you're coming from, and I'm anxious to get the big heat in here as we're too moist now (ton of mushrooms and ticks in the lawn here), but keep in mind this part of the summer was expected to be the most back and forth, with gradual progression to more sustained heat by late June then especially July and August. Everything seems to be on track from my POV and by next weekend I think we'll be pretty happy w/ low 90s and sunshine building in.

Does this mean we can look forward to a beautiful Sunday to celebrate Father's Day? I would like to plan the day meals for outside. Thanks.

[weatherbowl]

I have had plenty of mostly cloudy days recently but very little rain except for the one day last week. Today I made it to the upper 70s but again plenty of clouds.

[NittanyLion]

This pattern sucks. Period.

[icehater]

NittanyLion, on Jun 14 2010, 06:31 PM, said:

This pattern sucks. Period.

The more north and NE you go, the worse this pattern is.

BTW - Ch 5 featured a traffic light in West Milford on the news tonight at Rt 23 that the residents say is nearly 5 mins long. We have one here down at Rt 33 and Howell road that must be 3-4 mins long in favor of rt 33. I cross it whenever I take my inlaws home. Rt 33 in this area is not busy at all, especially at night, and you just sit there and can read a newspaper while you wait. I've seen folks go thru the light after a while thinking it isn't functioning. Then when it turns you are lucky if it stays green 20 seconds. At night there's not even a need for a traffic light on this corner, just a blinking red and yellow will do. Sometimes in daytime I've seen 50+ cars backed up on Howell road coming south because of the stupidity of this light and all that traffic sat and waited for about 10 cars travelling in both directions that crossed the intersection in 3 mins or so on Rt 33.

[robbbs]

icehater, on Jun 15 2010, 04:36 AM, said:

The more north and NE you go, the worse this pattern is.

BTW - Ch 5 featured a traffic light in West Milford on the news tonight at Rt 23 that the residents say is nearly 5 mins long. We have one here down at Rt 33 and Howell road that must be 3-4 mins long in favor of rt 33. I cross it whenever I take my inlaws home. Rt 33 in this area is not busy at all, especially at night, and you just sit there and can read a newspaper while you wait. I've seen folks go thru the light after a while thinking it isn't functioning. Then when it turns you are lucky if it stays green 20 seconds. At night there's not even a need for a traffic light on this corner, just a blinking red and yellow will do. Sometimes in daytime I've seen 50+ cars backed up on Howell road coming south because of the stupidity of this light and all that traffic sat and waited for about 10 cars travelling in both directions that crossed the intersection in 3 mins or so on Rt 33.

Unfortunately, I know it well. It's actually two traffic lights which are spaced no more than 100 feet apart, and each is 4 or 5 minutes long. Unless you reach the second light before it turns red (not likely), you'll have a 9 to 10 minute wait in total.

[lab94]

robbbs, on Jun 15 2010, 01:01 AM, said:

Unfortunately, I know it well. It's actually two traffic lights which are spaced no more than 100 feet apart, and each is 4 or 5 minutes long. Unless you reach the second light before it turns red (not likely), you'll have a 9 to 10 minute wait in total.

Only way you make it thru is if you are the first car and there is no one in front of you at the light in the center of 23, then gun it. Other wise you are screwed. Sit there a couple of times a week

[icehater]

robbbs, on Jun 15 2010, 01:01 AM, said:

Unfortunately, I know it well. It's actually two traffic lights which are spaced no more than 100 feet apart, and each is 4 or 5 minutes long. Unless you reach the second light before it turns red (not likely), you'll have a 9 to 10 minute wait in total.

Well here's the bad news then. Ch 5 asked the powers that be why the lights are so long and they said it was needed for the traffic flow on Rt 23 and they had no intention of changing it in the future. Sounds pretty stupid to me. At least sync the two lights so that a lot of folks can make it through both without gunning their cars. The strategy they have now is a major accident waiting to happen. Down here what happens often later at night is there's an accessible Wawa near the intersection I noted earlier and folks going south turn into the Wawa then exit onto Rt 33 and make a left back onto Howell rd to bypass the light. If you are coming north you turn rightt onto Rt 33 then go into the Wawa and emerge back onto Howell road (which becomes Colts Neck road further north) north of the light. This light is really unreasonable because Rt 33 has so little traffic that flows in the first place. I've even seen people make turns then simply make an imnmediate u-turn just to get past the lengthly light. I have no clue why anyone would put in such a lengthly traffic light onto a street that has so little traffic flow.

[NYBrit]

A beautiful day today. This is perfect weather. Sunny and 80 degrees with low humidity. More like this please!

[Mike_The_Golfer]

NYBrit, on Jun 15 2010, 04:59 PM, said:

A beautiful day today. This is perfect weather. Sunny and 80 degrees with low humidity. More like this please!

Absolutely perfect day. Unfortunately, it looks like the upcoming weekend could be very warm/muggy.

[satellite_eyes]

Yesterday was pretty cloudy but it did clear out and was nice in the evening. Today was obviously just about perfect. Another series of fronts come through though again tomorrow/tomorrow night. Sounds like it will be quick to exit though so i can deal with that. Right now most indictations are that we could have a good 5 day stretch of nice weather. Muggy to me is nice as long as the sun is out. So maybe the pattern is finally changing for good. Probably can't rule out a storm Sunday but hopefully nothing prolonged.

[shark253]

Absolutely Gorgeous today here in NYC. Temps not leaving the 70s for highs and very comfortable humidity levels.

[icehater]

shark253, on Jun 15 2010, 08:05 PM, said:

Absolutely Gorgeous today here in NYC. Temps not leaving the 70s for highs and very comfortable humidity levels.

Not to nitpick but the central park high was 80 and many places hit the low 80's, especially here in central NJ. The sun was blistering today.

[icehater]

Lot of talk of heavy rain tomorrow night but the Nam has pretty much come up empty for a few runs now and that's not comforting for anyone looking for water for plantlife. If we miss this looks like we are looking at a lot of heat, probably 90's for days starting Friday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_p60_060l.gif

[robbbs]

icehater, on Jun 16 2010, 02:53 AM, said:

Not to nitpick but the central park high was 80 and many places hit the low 80's, especially here in central NJ. The sun was blistering today.

Reached 80 even here yesterday.

[lab94]

icehater, on Jun 16 2010, 12:25 AM, said:

Lot of talk of heavy rain tomorrow night but the Nam has pretty much come up empty for a few runs now and that's not comforting for anyone looking for water for plantlife. If we miss this looks like we are looking at a lot of heat, probably 90's for days starting Friday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...am_p60_060l.gif

Here is my forcast as of 10:30 today

This Afternoon: Scattered showers, then occasional showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. High near 75. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Occasional showers and thunderstorms before 10pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 10pm and 2am, then a slight chance of showers after 2am. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Patchy fog after 2am. Low around 61. South wind around 8 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

and here is the 12z nam rainfall for the next 36 hr

[LongIslandCoastalWx]

HPC

Quote

IN AN
ATTEMPT TO AVERAGE THESE OUT...NEW UPDATED PRELIM PROGS CONSISTED
OF A 30% DETERMINISTIC CANADIAN/40% DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/30% ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND. THIS FILTERS OUT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
00Z/06Z OUTLIER SOLUTIONS WHICH SHOW STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO
THE NERN CONUS WED DAY 7...IN CONTRAST TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
COOLER SOLUTIONS IN THAT AREA.