60 replies to this topic

[LongIslandWthr]

...NEW ENGLAND AND SERN NY/NJ TODAY...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...NOW OVER
SRN QUE...THAT SHOULD DRIVE DIFFUSE COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH
E/SE OFF THE N ATLANTIC CST EARLY TONIGHT. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
LIKELY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF FRONT/TROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH SBCAPE
INCREASING TO AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO ME.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF EXISTING STORMS ALONG
TROUGH...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT/TROUGH BY EARLY AFTN.
COUPLED WITH 30-35 KT WLY MID LVL FLOW AND ASCENT WITH UPR
DISTURBANCE...EXPECT A FEW BROKEN LINES/SMALL CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW MARGINAL SUPERCELLS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND/SVR
HAIL THROUGH SUNSET.

TUESDAY:



...UPR OH VLY INTO MID ATLANTIC ...
MOIST...WSWLY LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF GRT LKS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SFC HEATING...WILL DESTABILIZE THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY. COUPLED WITH
ASCENT PROVIDED BY TROUGH...EXPECT SCTD CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS BY
MID AFTN ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS/WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN
OH/NRN KY INTO WV/MD AND VA. A BAND OF STORMS ALSO MAY FORM ALONG
WAA AXIS THROUGH CNTRL NY/PA. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN FROM OH/KY INTO WV. A MORE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WILL EXIST OVER AND E OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM MD/NRN VA INTO
NY/PA...CLOSER TO UPR TROUGH. THERE...A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION
TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

ANZ335-338-345-355-CTZ005-009-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>078-080-230915-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-
HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
404 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD OCCUR LATE
IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

[LongIslandWthr]

Rain Delay at Yankee Stadium right now, nothing severe in our neck of the woods yet

[wxtracker93]

Not much activity here - just partly cloudy skies.

[LongIslandWthr]

Nice band forming across Long Island - Could tops around 35K feet with some small hail. Special marine warning up

[NYBrit]

That line just missed me here on Staten Island.

[LongIslandWthr]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
427 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

NYZ077>081-202130-
NASSAU-NORTHEAST SUFFOLK-NORTHWEST SUFFOLK-SOUTHEAST
SUFFOLK-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK-
427 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...

AT 424 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FAIRFIELD TO NORTHPORT TO HUNTINGTON TO OYSTER BAY TO GARDEN CITY...
OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF STONY BROOK TO
NORTHPORT TO HUNTINGTON TO OYSTER BAY TO GARDEN CITY...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
NEAR WOODBURY BY 435 PM.
NEAR PLAINVIEW BY 440 PM.
NEAR WANTAGH BY 445 PM.
NEAR PORT JEFFERSON BY 450 PM.
NEAR MOUNT SINAI BY 455 PM.
NEAR RONKONKOMA BY 500 PM.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...VERY
HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...COULD CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS... AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4072 7373 4089 7358 4089 7348 4094 7349
4091 7341 4096 7340 4091 7323 4093 7316
4095 7316 4098 7312 4096 7310 4098 7308
4095 7265 4078 7284 4071 7323 4069 7326
4066 7335 4065 7348

$$

GOODMAN

[LongIslandWthr]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NYC103-202130-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0022.100620T2039Z-100620T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

* AT 437 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PORT JEFFERSON...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MOUNT SINAI BY 445 PM...
CORAM BY 450 PM...
MIDDLE ISLAND AND ROCKY POINT BY 455 PM...
YAPHANK BY 500 PM...
BROOKHAVEN NATIONAL LABORATORY AND WADING RIVER BY 505 PM...
MASTIC AND SHIRLEY BY 510 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4089 7324 4091 7323 4094 7316 4097 7316
4098 7312 4096 7310 4097 7308 4097 7277
4093 7260 4092 7261 4091 7249 4085 7252
4084 7260 4080 7268 4084 7253 4082 7254
4074 7280
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 290DEG 25KT 4094 7309

$$

GOODMAN

[Stormchaser]

Severe threat later today looks real. Watch that dying MCS in WPA for possible regeneration downstream in EPA later this afternoon into the evening hours. Once the T-storms are through tonight we'll see torrid conditions for Wed-Thurs, then moree MCS potential for this weekend in association w/ the next heat burst.

[LongIslandWthr]

...UPR OH VLY INTO MID ATLANTIC ...
MOIST...WSWLY LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF GRT LKS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SFC HEATING...WILL DESTABILIZE THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY. COUPLED WITH
ASCENT PROVIDED BY TROUGH...EXPECT SCTD CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS BY
MID AFTN ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS/WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN
OH/NRN KY INTO WV/MD AND VA. A BAND OF STORMS ALSO MAY FORM ALONG
WAA AXIS THROUGH CNTRL NY/PA. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN FROM OH/KY INTO WV. A MORE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WILL EXIST OVER AND E OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM MD/NRN VA INTO
NY/PA...CLOSER TO UPR TROUGH. THERE...A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION
TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

ANZ335-338-345-355-CTZ005-009-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>078-080-230915-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-
HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
404 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD OCCUR LATE
IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

[NittanyLion]

This afternoon/evening is looking pretty good for you guys down there, regeneration off of the dying MCS or maybe some re-initiation even later this evening, as the best indicies look to pass after 00z.

Surface CAPE projected to be around 1200 with Lifted Indicies around -5. Showalters around -3, K-Index of 37. More impressively SWEAT indicies above 400 and total totals near 50. Bulk Richardson number projected near 20, and EHI above 1.5.

Now this is all based off of last nights NAM run, but these indicies would support a moderate outbreak of thunderstorms, possibly severe at times. A super cell or two may also be possible with the BRN and EHI's where they are, and Helicity values around 300. Main threat would likely be damaging winds as is usually the case with any MCS, but also 850-500 Lapse rates are above 6. And with any supercells the outside chance of a tornado.

Nothing too impressive out there right now, but we'll see what kind of heating you get down there.

[NittanyLion]

I am more impressed with the POSSIBILITY of Thursday morning. Any threat on Wednesday seems to have disappeared.

Now there is not much dynamical support for Thursday's event, which obviously is a huge downside. However with some of the indicies where they are, it definitely bears watching.

CAPE is projected to be nearing 3000, with lifted Indicies as low as -9. Showalters are as low as -6 and a K-Index of 40. 437 on the SWEAT Index, and total totals of 53. Numbers like this can lead to major outbreaks.

Sometimes with this much instability, just enough shear, and moisture like that, any little dynamical support you can get can set something off (and there may be a prefrontal trough near the area). Time of this appears to be 12z-18z right now.

Thursday evening brings another chance of some storms with the frontal passage.

[satellite_eyes]

Nitt when you talk about 0z, 12z, etc is that actual time? I always wonder about that esp when i read forecast discussions. Should we adjust the time? So 0z is really 8 pm for us (minus 4 now but minus 5 during Non-DST). I know on the models that's how it is but was wondering about forecast discussions when they are not talking about models also.

[NittanyLion]

satellite_eyes, on Jun 22 2010, 09:16 AM, said:

Nitt when you talk about 0z, 12z, etc is that actual time? I always wonder about that esp when i read forecast discussions. Should we adjust the time? So 0z is really 8 pm for us (minus 4 now but minus 5 during DST). I know on the models that's how it is but was wondering about forecast discussions when they are not talking about models also.

Yup its Greenwich Mean Time (or Zulu, hence the z), so 12z is 8AM and 18z is 2PM.

[satellite_eyes]

NittanyLion, on Jun 22 2010, 10:22 AM, said:

Yup its Greenwich Mean Time (or Zulu, hence the z), so 12z is 8AM and 18z is 2PM.

Thanks. Meant to say Non-DST but you knew what i meant. I changed it.

[NittanyLion]

HRRR supports rapid development behind the initial weakening batch of rain, but keeps most thunderstorms south of NYC.
Moves into the area ~4-5PM.

Best shear and instability lies from I-78 southward right now.

[NittanyLion]

NittanyLion, on Jun 22 2010, 09:56 AM, said:

I am more impressed with the POSSIBILITY of Thursday morning. Any threat on Wednesday seems to have disappeared.

Now there is not much dynamical support for Thursday's event, which obviously is a huge downside. However with some of the indicies where they are, it definitely bears watching.

CAPE is projected to be nearing 3000, with lifted Indicies as low as -9. Showalters are as low as -6 and a K-Index of 40. 437 on the SWEAT Index, and total totals of 53. Numbers like this can lead to major outbreaks.

Sometimes with this much instability, just enough shear, and moisture like that, any little dynamical support you can get can set something off (and there may be a prefrontal trough near the area). Time of this appears to be 12z-18z right now.

Thursday evening brings another chance of some storms with the frontal passage.

Millersville WRF starting to pick up on Thursday's possible event. However, keys in on southern New England instead, where there is more dynamical support, like most cases this year.


Unfortunately NCEP ran the hurricane models instead of the NMM.

I'm basically convinced that somewhere in the Northeast will have a big severe weather day on Thursday...

[Stormchaser]

Mike, the WRF has a couple rounds of convection, some T-storms this evening and possibly a more organized MCS late tonight. I think we're still very much in the game for strong storms tonight.

[Stormchaser]

[LongIslandCoastalWx]

[icehater]

We can certainly use the rain from a hvy shower or storm but this airmass seems pretty stable and dry right now.