612 replies to this topic

[lab94]

[NittanyLion]

Still looking very impressive for the heat this weekend and really right on through next week.

Pretty good model consensus too, at least through the first half of this heat wave.
Around 90 on Saturday, followed by middle-upper 90's on Sunday, and then upper 90's on Monday, with the hottest day being Tuesday, where several, if not many locations could hit or break 100.

Now after Tuesday is where there is some conflicting scenarios. The GFS brings a weak boundary near the area, "cooling" you down to say near 90 for the rest of the week. However, the Euro keeps the boundary to the north, keeping you guys in solid mid 90's for the rest of the week. In fact it keeps the hottest day for you on Wednesday, which if it holds could push some locations up to 102-103 degrees.

Lab, what you have there is some extremely intense heat over the Ohio Valley, which if that verifies, could unimaginably break 110 degrees. Now the GFS is much more "reasonable" right now, keeping things in the upper 90's to near 100 down there.

[metfan4life]

Not looking forward to this at all. It's going to be really hot. Get ready to see your electric bill go through the roof.

[metfan4life]

Look at this ridge. Wow.

[lab94]

[weatherbowl]

I'm going to be in the D.C. area this weekend, that will be uncomfortable, to say the least.

[weathergeek87]

But is this going to be a stick-type of heat, or a dry heat?
The forecasts I've been seeing seem to show heat but no chances of thunderstorms, which leads me to believe it won't be as humid as the last heat outbreak..

Nittany - I know it's far out, but what do you see for fcsts for NEXT weekend (9th) for Lyndonville? I'm going up for the weekend...

[icehater]

NittanyLion, on Jun 30 2010, 03:49 PM, said:

Still looking very impressive for the heat this weekend and really right on through next week.

Pretty good model consensus too, at least through the first half of this heat wave.
Around 90 on Saturday, followed by middle-upper 90's on Sunday, and then upper 90's on Monday, with the hottest day being Tuesday, where several, if not many locations could hit or break 100.

Now after Tuesday is where there is some conflicting scenarios. The GFS brings a weak boundary near the area, "cooling" you down to say near 90 for the rest of the week. However, the Euro keeps the boundary to the north, keeping you guys in solid mid 90's for the rest of the week. In fact it keeps the hottest day for you on Wednesday, which if it holds could push some locations up to 102-103 degrees.

Lab, what you have there is some extremely intense heat over the Ohio Valley, which if that verifies, could unimaginably break 110 degrees. Now the GFS is much more "reasonable" right now, keeping things in the upper 90's to near 100 down there.

Anyone remember the great Chicago heatwave of 1995? Daytime highs of 105-110 for a week, consistent daily heat indices near or just over 120 and several nightime lows of only 90. I remember it being 97 one night near midnght. Many people, especially elderly died in their apartments. When I saw those Euro 594's that I posted the other day I was thinking about that.

[icehater]

weathergeek87, on Jun 30 2010, 07:23 PM, said:

But is this going to be a stick-type of heat, or a dry heat?
The forecasts I've been seeing seem to show heat but no chances of thunderstorms, which leads me to believe it won't be as humid as the last heat outbreak..

Nittany - I know it's far out, but what do you see for fcsts for NEXT weekend (9th) for Lyndonville? I'm going up for the weekend...

John,

Recent summers (and I mean last 15+ years have not had it) but I remember plenty of summers where a Bermuda HP dominated for months with only minor intrusions and we had very little T-storm activity. The heat was accomanied by tremendous humidity but you had to go way north (usually north of Albany) to find pressures low enough to allow T-shower development. Fronts that would come through never made it far south and never returned as warmfronts. They just dissipated and the heat and humidity was barely broken or surged right back in after a 24 hour break. The season that NYC had 39 days over 90 was like that and there were probably another 25+ days of 88-89 temps that season. I remember Bermuda HP's dominating well into September a lot more often in the past then in the current.

[NittanyLion]

weathergeek87, on Jun 30 2010, 07:23 PM, said:

But is this going to be a stick-type of heat, or a dry heat?
The forecasts I've been seeing seem to show heat but no chances of thunderstorms, which leads me to believe it won't be as humid as the last heat outbreak..

Nittany - I know it's far out, but what do you see for fcsts for NEXT weekend (9th) for Lyndonville? I'm going up for the weekend...

This will be more of a dry heat than the past heat wave. It is a pretty deep dry layer. Surface dewpoints will probably be in the 60's, and 850mb RH stay between 30 and 50%. Given what it could be this time of year it will be very hot but not overly humid (Would probably rather have 97/65 than 90/72 anyway).

In regards to next weekend in the NEK (is this for a certain someone's 21st? ), looking warm but the hottest air should be pressed southward with the boundary that moves through mid-week. Although by that time it could be trying to make a comeback around the ridge of high pressure.
Mid 80's look like a good forecast right now for Friday/Saturday along with a chance of some thunderstorms as there will likely be another boundary set up just to the north over Canada. The heat could try to move back in over the area on Sunday as we get another surge, so maybe could push 90 by Sunday.
Again pretty far out though.

[NittanyLion]

As anticipated by many on here, GFS continues to back off its initial presentation of the cold frontal boundary sagging far enough south next week to break the heat wave for the NYC metro area. Actually pretty good consensus of it getting as far south as Albany by next Thursday, but then not going any further south through next Saturday.

Hottest days look to be Monday/Tuesday as they have the greatest 850mb temps and should be the driest, so it can maximize any heating by the sun.

Still looking at 90 on Saturday, middle-upper 90's on Sunday, upper 90s to near 100 on Monday and Tuesday, then if this latest trend is to be believed, solid mid 90's right on through Thursday, possibly "sinking" back to near 90 by the weekend.

[LongIslandCoastalWx]

Just looked at the 00Z Euro Ensemble Mean. 850 temps on Tuesday range from 20'C to 22'C in the NYC Metro Area. Someone is going to get to 100 degrees. This kind of heat continues into midweek.

[Stormchaser]

Made a post on the potential heat next week. I think Newark may record a century mark heat wave, with 3 consecutive days of 100F highs.

http://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/

[icehater]

Just found another blizzard of 96 pix. Maybe this will chill us. Despite everything I saw here this winter, nothing I saw compares to this for CNJ. Look at the depth of this snow - and this was 30 hours after compaction. It must have taken me 5 hours just to get this far and 2 days to get to the curb. Once there I had 7' of snow from the plows which took me into day 3. If you look close you can see the scoured lines in the snow as it was more than 2X the depth of my Ariens snow blower so I had to knock it down with a shovel and than blow it out. You can also see the hilly terrain in this part of Colts Neck as the slope of the land shows clearly behind the swingset. That drops off from top to bottom about 55 feet to a small tributary of Big Brook river. The swingset is long gone now that the pool occupies that space.

[NittanyLion]

Stormchaser, on Jul 1 2010, 11:37 PM, said:

Made a post on the potential heat next week. I think Newark may record a century mark heat wave, with 3 consecutive days of 100F highs.

http://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/

Maybe not just not Newark. Products that I'm looking at this morning are even hotter...

90 on Saturday, mid-upper 90's on Sunday, upper 90's to near 100 on Monday, around 100 Tuesday and Wednesday, and then mid-upper 90's Thursday and Friday. Finally a cooldown to the 80's for Saturday...

[dulaboy]

Threaded Climate Extremes for New York-LGA Area, NY
Period of record: 1947 - 2009

7/3 107 in 1966 98 in 1949 97 in 2002+
7/4 100 in 1949 99 in 1966 98 in 2002
7/5 100 in 1999 99 in 1955 94 in 2003+
7/6 101 in 1999 98 in 1986 97 in 1994
7/7 97 in 1994 97 in 1993 97 in 1986


Threaded Climate Extremes for New York-Central Park Area, NY
Period of record: 1871 - 2009

7/3 103 in 1966 100 in 1911 100 in 1898
7/4 102 in 1949 99 in 1919 98 in 1966
7/5 101 in 1999 98 in 1955 98 in 1919
7/6 101 in 1999 98 in 1986 98 in 1911
7/7 98 in 1993 98 in 1986 97 in 1994+

[lab94]

well, it was 47.0 this morning. what a great day again. I wish summer was like this the whole time.

BTW- the dam gfs still has rain for most of the 7-14 day time frame

[metfan4life]

0z Euro bakes us right through Friday. Yuck.

I can't believe how hot the Euro is. Holy ****.

[Stormchaser]

icehater, on Jul 2 2010, 12:22 AM, said:

Just found another blizzard of 96 pix. Maybe this will chill us. Despite everything I saw here this winter, nothing I saw compares to this for CNJ. Look at the depth of this snow - and this was 30 hours after compaction. It must have taken me 5 hours just to get this far and 2 days to get to the curb. Once there I had 7' of snow from the plows which took me into day 3. If you look close you can see the scoured lines in the snow as it was more than 2X the depth of my Ariens snow blower so I had to knock it down with a shovel and than blow it out. You can also see the hilly terrain in this part of Colts Neck as the slope of the land shows clearly behind the swingset. That drops off from top to bottom about 55 feet to a small tributary of Big Brook river. The swingset is long gone now that the pool occupies that space.

Ice, I hope we can repeat this storm in our lifetimes. It was about 6-10" greater than our 2nd/3rd biggest storms, and the arctic air following it allowed the impact to be severe.

[Stormchaser]

NittanyLion, on Jul 2 2010, 07:50 AM, said:

Maybe not just not Newark. Products that I'm looking at this morning are even hotter...

90 on Saturday, mid-upper 90's on Sunday, upper 90's to near 100 on Monday, around 100 Tuesday and Wednesday, and then mid-upper 90's Thursday and Friday. Finally a cooldown to the 80's for Saturday...

Agree Mike, I think many spots will hit 100.