27 replies to this topic

[njblizzard]

much colder then previous runs but less precip..i wish i can take gfs cold and nam precip for tri-state...

[njblizzard]

24hrs..

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[Stormchaser]

NAM scores a coup again it appears.

[njblizzard]

30hrs...

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[njblizzard]

36hrs...

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[njblizzard]

precip totals...

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[snowfreak188]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...8048066_s.shtml


we still get .50 qpf

[robbbs]

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NAM scores a coup again it appears.

Storm, you're right. GFS is pretty close to the NAM now through 42 hours except with a slightly lower precip quantity.

[inkedmag]

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NAM scores a coup again it appears.

What makes you say that???

[inkedmag]

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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...8048066_s.shtml


we still get .50 qpf

around 6" of snow. A moderate snowfall. I'll take it. This winter, beggers can't be choosers.

[njblizzard]

where the heck is icehater?

[icehater]

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where the heck is icehater?

Very busy today  but I posted earlier this afternoon I thought the storm would surprise to the high side on snow.

[robbbs]

Well I've seen enough. Fairly good agreement now between the NAM and GFS. Temps and soundings are less inclined for mixed precip over north NJ, NY Metro, and at least western LI. NWS will have no choice but to base their morning forecasts on these model runs and have winter storm warnings hoisted over a good part, if not all, of our area. Even in places that expect a mix or change-over, sleet and ice with snow on the front and back ends will likelly result in winter storm warnings there as well.  

[njblizzard]

ICE, that was quick response to my post so you must be dying to post.... ;D

[LongIslandWthr]

Robbbs-- Think you can make a snow-fall map?

[Stormchaser]

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Robbbs-- Think you can make a snow-fall map?

Brett said he would make a snowfall map based off my discussion I sent him. Should be posted soon.

[monmouthcoweather]

glad to see its trending colder, hopefully just a little bit more colder here and we're set

[robbbs]

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Robbbs-- Think you can make a snow-fall map?

I'm not good at maps. LOL. However, accumulations are still somewhat tough to nail down for several reasons -- some mixing will occur in some spots, ratios will be tough to guage, long duration event with heavy precip in the front end and then a long period of light snows on the back end. I think for northern NJ a 6" to 8" event, with some isolated spots topping out higher, 5" to 8" for NY Metro and a good part of LI, maybe somewhat less on the east end. Central NJ is more borderline with mixing but also higher precip so that's a real batteground and can be the surprise area for a lot more or a lot less.

[robbbs]

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Robbbs-- Think you can make a snow-fall map?

Brett said he would make a snowfall map based off my discussion I sent him. Should be posted soon.

Storm, thanks. How do you think it will compare to my narrative post on snowfall?

[Stormchaser]

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Robbbs-- Think you can make a snow-fall map?

Brett said he would make a snowfall map based off my discussion I sent him. Should be posted soon.

Storm, thanks. How do you think it will compare to my narrative post on snowfall?

Robbbs - my ideas are very similar to your last post. Significant snowfall much of the region.