37 replies to this topic

[wxtracker93]

Complex synoptic-scale evolution over the next 48 hours as we have another energy transfer occuring (similar to Valentine's day) from the Mid-west primary low to a secondary coastal storm which will develop near the delmarva tomorrow night. Large 1035mb high pressure in place up across Hudson Bay funneling cold low-level air down into the northern Mid-atlantic and Northeast. What this implies is surface temperatures will not exceed 32 degrees for virtually the entire region, save for maybe coastal Ocean county NJ. Cold-air damming is present; although not as intense as a couple weeks ago, it will be sufficient for an all snow/sleet event for locations north of 195 in central NJ. Precipitation begins approaching from the southwest later tomorrow afternoon in the form of rain for southern NJ, DE, and coastal MD -- freezing rain and sleet near DCA/BWI, snow and sleet for PHL/central NJ. This should be all snow from start to finish for northern NJ, NYC, LI, the poconos, catskills, and the lower hudson valley. Once the secondary low begins to deepen overnight near the mid-atlantic coast; some mid-level warming will occur south of NYC (particularly in the 900mb/850mb levels) at the height of the storm. Therefore, I'm expecting a change to sleet for east-central NJ (Monmouth county) for a period later tomorrow night, prior to transitioning back over to heavy snow. This may cut down totals a bit -- but there will be a very distinctive sleet/snow line aligned SW-NE across east central NJ that's difficult to pinpoint right now. However, it does appear, as per latest soundings, this is mostly snow for Trenton (west-central NJ) , up through NYC as well as the NW suburbs. Precip gradually tapers Monday morning, but some lower-level moisture should allow for light snow showers through the afternoon. The bulk of the QPF accumulates between 00z tomorrow evening and 12z Monday morning.

Final totals;
2-4" of snow for the catskills, lower hudson valley, and southwestern CT. (including Poughkeepsie)
4-8" of snow for the poconos, northern and western NJ (Trenton-Perth Amboy northward), NYC, and all of Long Island save for the NE tip.
3-6" of snow, some sleet accumulation for immediate NW burbs of PHL, into northern ocean county and Monmouth county.
1-3" of snow/sleet for PHL eastnortheast to Belmar; little icing.
Mainly rain southern NJ.

[img width=600 height=450]http://img100.images...3/slide1rp1.jpg[/img]

[monmouthcoweather]

very nice job guys, i'll take 3-6 ;D

[terryjohnson16]

Cool. Just what us NYer's need. More snow. I thought snow was gone for awhile. Just hope us NYC people get 1-2 inches, and no more.

[snowfreak188]

terry u get me very angry when u say stupid things like that lol

[terryjohnson16]

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terry u get me very angry when u say stupid things like that lol

Get angry. The last storm that came down last week was hectic.

[Businessman1988]

Very nice, best outlook i have seen so far.  I will take your amounts
:D

[yankee2274]

Thanks for the great information and the map. Great job.

[listarz]

I remain cautiously optimistic  ;D

[OrangeCountyWeather06]

I see this is a coastal event. Not the weekend I imagined, first of all... My Nuggets lost today and yesterday. Second, I lost my PSP and to top everything I hear NYC is going to get more snow than me? This is one hell of a weekend that I won't forget.

[terryjohnson16]

But seriously though. I may not act like I like the snow when I post, but I actually like it once its falling. But once, it gets dirty and causes slush on the ground, thats the part I don't like.

[Stormchaser]

Alright, about ready to hit the hay now. Hopefully nothing changes by tomorrow morning. LOL.

[icehater]

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Alright, about ready to hit the hay now. Hopefully nothing changes by tomorrow morning. LOL.

Storm - I think the 4-8" zone will extend further SE and I think even Philly may get in on that much snow. Robbbs area I agree with pretty much but higher ratios could push some accums up there to 10". If sleet doesn't mix central Nj would get the highest totals, so that area still remaiins the wild card with surprise potential up or down.. But in general i think this rain/snow line is a north/south issue much more so than an east/west issue save for the immediate beach areas. I also think eastern LI will do fine with this storm - again it's likely better to be northeast than southwest in this one.

[rgwp96]

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Alright, about ready to hit the hay now. Hopefully nothing changes by tomorrow morning. LOL.

Storm - I think the 4-8" zone will extend further SE and I think even Philly may get in on that much snow. Robbbs area I agree with pretty much but higher ratios could push some accums up there to 10". If sleet doesn't mix central Nj would get the highest totals, so that area still remaiins the wild card with surprise potential up or down.. But in general i think this rain/snow line is a north/south issue much more so than an east/west issue save for the immediate beach areas. I also think eastern LI will do fine with this storm - again it's likely better to be northeast than southwest in this one.

Ice he has mine and robbs area in 2-4,

[icehater]

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Alright, about ready to hit the hay now. Hopefully nothing changes by tomorrow morning. LOL.

Storm - I think the 4-8" zone will extend further SE and I think even Philly may get in on that much snow. Robbbs area I agree with pretty much but higher ratios could push some accums up there to 10". If sleet doesn't mix central Nj would get the highest totals, so that area still remaiins the wild card with surprise potential up or down.. But in general i think this rain/snow line is a north/south issue much more so than an east/west issue save for the immediate beach areas. I also think eastern LI will do fine with this storm - again it's likely better to be northeast than southwest in this one.

Ice he has mine and robbs area in 2-4,

I think you guys get 4-8" of snow with up to 10". I thought he had you guys in that 4-8" range.

[winterstorm123456789]

when will LI suffolk county be put on waring instead of watch?

[BryanRosey]

they usually update around 4 AM and PM but it depends on what the night brings such as any changes in the track.. we'll just have to wait and see

[metfan4life]

how much snow does it look for brooklyn

[Lieutenant26L3]

I havent been following this storm at all till tonight. Sounds like Central Jersey is gonna get a decent snowfall out of this?

[Virgaman]

great map!!!!!!!!!!!  i think it will verify

thanks for saying including poughkeepsie hehehehehehe where me and yankee live

[winterbird04]

Brett great map! Hope it holds true.Up early this morn need to get to town before the cattle rush!!Bring it on ;D