5 replies to this topic

[Hurricaneff]

It shows a systems(nicole/nicole remnants)riding up the coast.Is this a tropical system or a nor'easter for our area?can you tell by looking at model if it is a Tropical or not??if so how can you tell the differnce.Trying to learn reading models better

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...en_m_loop.shtml

[BRINGONTHEBIGONE]

Hurricaneff, on Sep 24 2010, 09:32 AM, said:

It shows a systems(nicole/nicole remnants)riding up the coast.Is this a tropical system or a nor'easter for our area?can you tell by looking at model if it is a Tropical or not??if so how can you tell the differnce.Trying to learn reading models better

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...en_m_loop.shtml

I saw this morning it was a storm named Matthew?

[LongIslandCoastalWx]

I don't think it's a pure tropical system. It looks like those tropical remnants then interact and merge with the ULL the models develop. The Euro is insane with rainfall totals on Tuesday, with the GFS much lower with QPF.

[icehater]

LongIslandCoastalWx, on Sep 24 2010, 11:09 AM, said:

I don't think it's a pure tropical system. It looks like those tropical remnants then interact and merge with the ULL the models develop. The Euro is insane with rainfall totals on Tuesday, with the GFS much lower with QPF.

This was meant in response to Fred's question, not Danny's post.

Always go to the 500mb maps. That's the remains of a trop system and trop like warmth and humidity is being pulled up the coast by the ULL in the midwest. That's why I told BTBO in another thread that next week features a developing trop flow and timing for the weekend is to be determined.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_500_228l.gif

The other piece of data that shows it's not a nor'easter is the surge of warmth well into SE Canada and you need the 1000-500mb surface LP map for that. A true nor'easter would have cold air to the NW of the storm at 850MB that mixing would transfer to the surface. That's why in winter we always want a storm offshore. Note how the coastal storm has a 582MB line near it's center. That is very warm core and only a trop system can have that. That's also why you almost never have lightning near a trop systems center. Warm air aloft does not support lightning.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_228l.gif

A day later both systems merge - and this BTW is how you get cold SW winds..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_500_252l.gif

[Hurricaneff]

icehater, on Sep 24 2010, 11:49 AM, said:

This was meant in response to Fred's question, not Danny's post.

Always go to the 500mb maps. That's the remains of a trop system and trop like warmth and humidity is being pulled up the coast by the ULL in the midwest. That's why I told BTBO in another thread that next week features a developing trop flow and timing for the weekend is to be determined.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_500_228l.gif

The other piece of data that shows it's not a nor'easter is the surge of warmth well into SE Canada and you need the 1000-500mb surface LP map for that. A true nor'easter would have cold air to the NW of the storm at 850MB that mixing would transfer to the surface. That's why in winter we always want a storm offshore. Note how the coastal storm has a 582MB line near it's center. That is very warm core and only a trop system can have that. That's also why you almost never have lightning near a trop systems center. Warm air aloft does not support lightning.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_228l.gif

A day later both systems merge - and this BTW is how you get cold SW winds..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_500_252l.gif

Thanks!!

[HSNN4]

Hurricaneff...

I was on your web site, great job !!

Tony