15 replies to this topic

[LongIslandWthr]

Last night I had a WSW, I wake up this morning and I have an Advisory. I thought the models were looking better, can someone explain why they down graded me?

[njblizzard]

I told them too because i wanted to see you fall off your chair and  :'( in the morning.

[LongIslandWthr]

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I told them too because i wanted to see you fall off your chair and  :'( in the morning.

Wow, you should have told me that before I started to cry...  :'( lol

[robbbs]

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Last night I had a WSW, I wake up this morning and I have an Advisory. I thought the models were looking better, can someone explain why they down graded me?

Upton has not changed it's snowfall forecast -- generally  "a  4" to 7" event with some higher totals possible". Their reasoning in issuing an advisory instead of a warning is that the snowfall will come iover a 24 hour period, instead of 12 hours. I don't agree with their logic and I think it misleads the puiblic. However, I'm not running the place. LOL.  BTW, Mount Holly did convert most of their watch areas to warnings.

[LongIslandWthr]

Robbbs-- You think they will put me upto a warning?  I looked at my weather bug type thing, and it says both a warning and a advisory, take a look ----http://i13.tinypic.com/30lcr3c.jpg

[robbbs]

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Robbbs-- You think they will put me upto a warning?  I looked at my weather bug type thing, and it says both a warning and a advisory, take a look ----[url=http://i13.tinypic.com/30lcr3c.jpg]http://i13.tinypic.com/30lcr3c.jpg[/u]

Medford is under an advisory and the official forecast for you is 3" to 6" until tomorrow pm and more accumulatiuons possible Monday night -- those are the NWS forecast words. Upton is being silly in my view -- that should be a warning. My area, West Milford, is also handled by Upton and they have 4" to 7" in their forecast and an advisory as well, Meanwhile, Mount Holly has areas that they expect to get 4" to 6" under a winter storm warning.

[LongIslandWthr]

Oh ok thanks, so there's a chance I will be in a warning this afternoon

[robbbs]

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Oh ok thanks, so there's a chance I will be in a warning this afternoon

Upton is being screwy -- for them to have me getting "4 to 7 with higher accumulations possible" and yet only an advisory is crazy. Yes, as expectations and or conditions warrant, advisoires and warnings can be added or downgraded.

[LongIslandWthr]

Why do they have idiots working up there, don't they have to notify people when severe weather is coming? I can picture a tornado in Jersey and Upton giving out an ice storm watch LOL... Losers

[robbbs]

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Why do they have idiots working up there, don't they have to notify people when severe weather is coming? I can picture a tornado in Jersey and Upton giving out a severe thunderstorm watch... Losers

IMO, Upton should do a better job in considering the public's perception on this event. Last night they had most under a winter storm watch with the expectation of 4" to 7" of snow. Today they issue an advisory with 4" to 7" of snow expected and possibly more (their words). Bottom line -- their snowfal forecast has not changed yet an advisory instead of a winter storm warning is issued, and this would probably be perceived as a downgrade by most of the public. Upton's logic in that the snow will fall over a long duration doesn't cut it with me. It's splitting hairs and confuses the public. Mount Holly obviously takes a different approach in issuing winter storm warnings with a 4" to 6" forecast for some of their zones.

[LongIslandWthr]

Who knows, they like confusing people, I bet allot of people are going to be un-prepared for this event though

[monmouthcoweather]

i couldn't believe you guys got an advisory when they are calling for 4-8 inches of snow. that should most definetley be a warning. i'm also under an advisory (monmouth county) which may need to be changed to a warning since models keep trending colder.

[njblizzard]

You guys might have changes after 12z runs..

[OrangeCountyWeather06]

It's not permenant either, even though we have Snow Advisories and Winter Weather Advisories the NWS is saying the track is still uncertain and if it tracks north and produces more snow they will have to upgrade them.

[satellite_eyes]

If 6" falls over 12 hours it would generally be much more difficult on the roads than it would be if it fell in 24.  I think the general public isn't going to see much of a difference between a WSW and advisory.  They are looking at the totals and most people don't even know what the true meaning of an advisory or warning or watch is.

[robbbs]

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If 6" falls over 12 hours it would generally be much more difficult on the roads than it would be if it fell in 24.  I think the general public isn't going to see much of a difference between a WSW and advisory.  They are looking at the totals and most people don't even know what the true meaning of an advisory or warning or watch is.

Good point. Clearly, that was Upton's logic with the long duration aspect. However, you see that Mount Holly has the same event with the same parameters yet they went with the higher warning category. While I agree that the public probably focuses on numbers mostly, I think many know to take a winter storm warning more seriously and they don't occur too often. Perception is reality. My area may get more than 7" of snow (Upton's forecast words) yet we're under an advisory only. Bottom line -- I think Upton went the wrong way on this.