67 replies to this topic

[metfan4life]

12z Euro has a big storm along the coast for next week while the GFS has nothing. Euro is also way colder than the GFS.

[robbbs]

metfan4life, on Oct 28 2010, 07:51 PM, said:

12z Euro has a big storm along the coast for next week while the GFS has nothing. Euro is also way colder than the GFS.

Would tend to believe the Euro over the gfs at this point. BTW, my winter outlook looks great for much snow from central NJ to southern New England. Well above normal.

[Virgaman]

robbbs, on Oct 28 2010, 08:11 PM, said:

Would tend to believe the Euro over the gfs at this point. BTW, my winter outlook looks great for much snow from central NJ to southern New England. Well above normal.

can you nudge that "much snow" further north up my way and west, thanks lol

[jjvesnow]

robbbs, on Oct 28 2010, 08:11 PM, said:

Would tend to believe the Euro over the gfs at this point. BTW, my winter outlook looks great for much snow from central NJ to southern New England. Well above normal.

is that how you really feel Robbbs?

[robbbs]

jjvesnow, on Oct 28 2010, 08:34 PM, said:

is that how you really feel Robbbs?

Yes; for a number of reasons. People who may be lulled into believing that two snowy winters in a row are unlikely are in for a big surprise.

[forte408]

Just looked at at the GFS, has a big storm along the coast next weekend, just a couple days after the Euro shows it.

[jjvesnow]

robbbs, on Oct 28 2010, 08:47 PM, said:

Yes; for a number of reasons. People who may be lulled into believing that two snowy winters in a row are unlikely are in for a big surprise.

thats interesting coming from you. what are your main selling points?

[Virgaman]

robbbs, on Oct 28 2010, 07:47 PM, said:

Yes; for a number of reasons. People who may be lulled into believing that two snowy winters in a row are unlikely are in for a big surprise.

the biggest surprise i saw was when nyc has back to back 40+ snow totals, if i remember right it was 3 years in a row or 4 starting with the winter of 2002-03

[shark253]

Virgaman, on Oct 28 2010, 08:18 PM, said:

the biggest surprise i saw was when nyc has back to back 40+ snow totals, if i remember right it was 3 years in a row or 4 starting with the winter of 2002-03

I think 4 in a row. That was really amazing. I dont think I can remember anything like that happening previously.

[robbbs]

jjvesnow, on Oct 28 2010, 09:16 PM, said:

thats interesting coming from you. what are your main selling points?

Significantly colder winter than last year with an active and consistent clipper storm track and an occasionsl Miller B heavy snow event. This should lock in consistent periods of below to well below normal temps, interspersed with normal temps, and an absence of any prolonged period of above normal temps. This will bode well for central and northern NJ, NY metro, lower Hudson Valley, CT, and Long Island. Biggest bust potential downward for snowfall is central NJ as it's possible it may be just south of the heaviest snows on several events. Biggest bust potential for even higher snowfalls is Long Island and southern New England which may do even better. All areas, however, should wind up with an above normal snowfall season, with the potential for well above normal snowfall in some parts of our area.

[shark253]

robbbs, on Oct 28 2010, 07:11 PM, said:

Would tend to believe the Euro over the gfs at this point. BTW, my winter outlook looks great for much snow from central NJ to southern New England. Well above normal.

Robbs..Can you justify why you believe a snowy winter is in store?

[robbbs]

shark253, on Oct 28 2010, 09:31 PM, said:

Robbs..Can you justify why you believe a snowy winter is in store?

See above. However, suffice to say that the signals suggest a longer season of snowfall opportunities based on temps consistently cold enough for snow chances. As in football, we'll have more scoring chances as we'll be on offense much longer than on defense for a good part of winter.

[jjvesnow]

very bullish of you robbbs. i hope you are right.

[LongIslandWthr]

robbbs, on Oct 28 2010, 04:31 PM, said:

Significantly colder winter than last year with an active and consistent clipper storm track and an occasionsl Miller B heavy snow event. This should lock in consistent periods of below to well below normal temps, interspersed with normal temps, and an absence of any prolonged period of above normal temps. This will bode well for central and northern NJ, NY metro, lower Hudson Valley, CT, and Long Island. Biggest bust potential downward for snowfall is central NJ as it's possible it may be just south of the heaviest snows on several events. Biggest bust potential for even higher snowfalls is Long Island and southern New England which may do even better. All areas, however, should wind up with an above normal snowfall season, with the potential for well above normal snowfall in some parts of our area.

I like the way you think robbs! haha best of luck on your call!

[shark253]

robbbs, on Oct 28 2010, 08:37 PM, said:

See above. However, suffice to say that the signals suggest a longer season of snowfall opportunities based on temps consistently cold enough for snow chances. As in football, we'll have more scoring chances as we'll be on offense much longer than on defense for a good part of winter.

Impressive. I hope this verifies. NYC in for another snowy winter. I remember last year when parts of the south were getting inundated with heavy snows. I think this year areas to the south might not be too happy as you mentioned in your outlook.

[metfan4life]

robbbs, on Oct 28 2010, 03:11 PM, said:

Would tend to believe the Euro over the gfs at this point. BTW, my winter outlook looks great for much snow from central NJ to southern New England. Well above normal.

robbbs, on Oct 28 2010, 04:31 PM, said:

Significantly colder winter than last year with an active and consistent clipper storm track and an occasionsl Miller B heavy snow event. This should lock in consistent periods of below to well below normal temps, interspersed with normal temps, and an absence of any prolonged period of above normal temps. This will bode well for central and northern NJ, NY metro, lower Hudson Valley, CT, and Long Island. Biggest bust potential downward for snowfall is central NJ as it's possible it may be just south of the heaviest snows on several events. Biggest bust potential for even higher snowfalls is Long Island and southern New England which may do even better. All areas, however, should wind up with an above normal snowfall season, with the potential for well above normal snowfall in some parts of our area.

Wow. Much different than a lot of people's outlooks. A lot of people have the area getting normal or just below normal snowfall, due to the La Nina. Good luck and hopefully you are right.

[NYBrit]

I think we'll all be rooting for robbbs to verify this winter!

[icehater]

Robbbs,

I think on April 1st 2011 you should reveal the details behind all this.

[metfan4life]

icehater, on Oct 28 2010, 06:15 PM, said:

Robbbs,

I think on April 1st 2011 you should reveal the details behind all this.

Where is your winter outlook?

[TatamyPA]

Models have been advertising this event for several days. The Euro has been the coldest with this event. This is the run that is of interest right now:



This screenshot from the 12z run shows an early season snowfall for the area from NE PA to NW NJ up to SE NY. The 0z run was out to sea.

The GFS has been back and forth with an event and a more suppressed solution. The lastest 18z DGEX keeps it back over the SE part of the country. The 12z GEM is a warmer rainy solution. The models have a ways to go to get into alignment on this one so the jury is definitely still out.