24 replies to this topic

[robbbs]

Had to start a new thread as I'm having problems replying on the GFS thread. Based on the GFS and NAM, snowfall bull's eye in our area looks to be north central NJ with 6" to 8" and locally higher amounts if all falls into place right. Other areas are a tough call due to potential mixing, varying by location. Storm, do you have any representative soundings -- Islip, Newark, NYC, Morristown? Both models have the precip here (although the NAM is higher by about 0.25").

[Snow15]

by North Central Jersey...u mean NOrthern Middlesex County??

[robbbs]

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by North Central Jersey...u mean NOrthern Middlesex County??

Getting this fine is not a good idea but I think places from Parsippany/Boonton to Butler/Oakland to Ringwood/West Milford to Sparta/Hackettstown look good for 6"+. Could extend out based on soundings which I've not seen yet.

[metfan4life]

wheres the soundings,storm where r u lol

[Stormchaser]

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wheres the soundings,storm where r u lol

Geeze, calm down folks. LOL. Soundings are coming in now.

[robbbs]

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by North Central Jersey...u mean NOrthern Middlesex County??

Getting this fine is not a good idea but I think places from Parsippany/Boonton to Butler/Oakland to Ringwood/West Milford to Sparta/Hackettstown look good for 6"+. Could extend out based on soundings which I've not seen yet.

I think southern Orange County & Rockland County NY also look good for 6" to 8"+.

[Stormchaser]

Robbbs, you now seem more bullish on the snowfall than me. I like the 4-8" range as it leaves the door open for amounts as low as 4" or as high as 8". I don't forsee enough precip for many 8"+ amounts.

[redjar2]

I live like 5 minutes from Parsippany so I hope you're right Robbbs.....

[robbbs]

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Robbbs, you now seem more bullish on the snowfall than me. I like the 4-8" range as it leaves the door open for amounts as low as 4" or as high as 8". I don't forsee enough precip for many 8"+ amounts.

Storm, no we're actually in agreement. I think a general 6"+ snowfall but with some very local numbers possible at the 8"+ range. That's for the bull's eye areas only -- north central NJ, northwest NJ, Orange/Rockland. Need soundings data for the other spots.

[metfan4life]

hows it loookin for brooklyn storm

[Stormchaser]

GFS soundings not in yet, but per the 12z NAM sounding for NYC and Newark; it's all snow:

http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Knyc.txt

Appears anyone from Middlesex county northward is all snow on the 12z NAM.

[Snow15]

thats me...any thoughts on totals?

[Stormchaser]

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thats me...any thoughts on totals?

My call is for 4-8" all of northern NJ, including your area.

[Stormchaser]

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Robbbs, you now seem more bullish on the snowfall than me. I like the 4-8" range as it leaves the door open for amounts as low as 4" or as high as 8". I don't forsee enough precip for many 8"+ amounts.

Storm, no we're actually in agreement. I think a general 6"+ snowfall but with some very local numbers possible at the 8"+ range. That's for the bull's eye areas only -- north central NJ, northwest NJ, Orange/Rockland. Need soundings data for the other spots.

Robbbs, agreed. I think everyone can agree this is the biggest storm of the winter. LOL.

[BlizzLuv]

For Central NJ - what is the expected timing for the snow to begin?

[robbbs]

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Robbbs, you now seem more bullish on the snowfall than me. I like the 4-8" range as it leaves the door open for amounts as low as 4" or as high as 8". I don't forsee enough precip for many 8"+ amounts.

Storm, no we're actually in agreement. I think a general 6"+ snowfall but with some very local numbers possible at the 8"+ range. That's for the bull's eye areas only -- north central NJ, northwest NJ, Orange/Rockland. Need soundings data for the other spots.

Robbbs, agreed. I think everyone can agree this is the biggest storm of the winter. LOL.

Just read Jeff Smith's post on abc -- believes 3" to 6" northwest of NYC with an additional inch or two Monday (really matched with our thinking perfectly). He sees 2" to 4" for NY Metro, LI, NJ southwest of NYC where mixing is an issue.

[jjvesnow]

has the coastal begin to develop??

[LongIslandWthr]

Robbbs, Storm-- Are you guy's still thinking 4-8'' for LI?

[BobInJersey]

Morning guys... can this be it for the winter???    .You mean I might be able to use the snowblower tomorrow here in Keyport???  wow....lol



I know there is an event for next Friday, but i'm guessing this is winters last decent snow event...
After next week I'm hearing a blowtorch somewhere around the 10th or 15th of March??

[robbbs]

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Robbbs, Storm-- Are you guy's still thinking 4-8'' for LI?

I was never certain about LI snow numbers due to potential mix issues. It's a very tough call as LI is literally on the fence with the 540 line. Storm, have you seen soundings out of Islip? It's so close there may be an appreciable difference in snowfall on the ground between the north and south shores and between the western end versus the twin forks.