20 replies to this topic

[lab94]

OK, I'll try to bring us some luck. (Dont hold your breath).
BTW- I have a feeling its all (10+") or nothing with this one. And I am leaning with nothing. But It can change

And the nam is running..........

[lab94]

Out to 42 seems flat. we will see though.

BTW anyone see this...


National Weather Service


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-160900-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
400 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILL READINGS. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE COLD IF YOU WILL BE
WORKING OUTSIDE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SUICIDE WATCH STATEMENT...

SUICIDE WATCH ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE IMPENDING WATCH MAY BE NEED DO TO THE ANTISAPATION
OF A STORM FORMING OF THE NC COAST AND RUNNING OTS INSEAD OF RIDING UP
THE EAST COAST. PLEASE KEEP UPDATED WITH LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

IF THIS SITUATION CHANGES AND WE RECIEVE SNOW, PLEASE REMEMBER THAT RULER SHOULD BE PLACED
UP AND DOWN AND NOT ON A 45 DEGREE ANGLE.aLSO THE MEASURMENTS SHOULD BE
TAKEN ON A SNOW BOARD OR A HARD SURFACE IN A OPEN AREA REMEMBER NOT TO TAKE THEM
ON THE GRASS OR IN A DRIFT............

L94$$$$

[NittanyLion]

12z NAM is slower so far out to 60 hrs.

[lab94]

66 hrs PV looks to be a little weaker and elongated or spliting also slower

[lab94]

PV seems to split, a little weaker and slowe. Think this is better. Nit any thoughts

[lab94]

Looks much better, is it enough though??

[NittanyLion]

lab94, on Dec 15 2010, 09:54 AM, said:

Looks much better, is it enough though??

Definitely looks much better than the 06z and I would even say its starting to look better than the 18z GFS last night.

[Virgaman]

lab94, on Dec 15 2010, 03:26 PM, said:

Out to 42 seems flat. we will see though.

BTW anyone see this...


National Weather Service


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-160900-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
400 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILL READINGS. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE COLD IF YOU WILL BE
WORKING OUTSIDE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SUICIDE WATCH STATEMENT...

SUICIDE WATCH ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE IMPENDING WATCH MAY BE NEED DO TO THE ANTISAPATION
OF A STORM FORMING OF THE NC COAST AND RUNNING OTS INSEAD OF RIDING UP
THE EAST COAST. PLEASE KEEP UPDATED WITH LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

IF THIS SITUATION CHANGES AND WE RECIEVE SNOW, PLEASE REMEMBER THAT RULER SHOULD BE PLACED
UP AND DOWN AND NOT ON A 45 DEGREE ANGLE.aLSO THE MEASURMENTS SHOULD BE
TAKEN ON A SNOW BOARD OR A HARD SURFACE IN A OPEN AREA REMEMBER NOT TO TAKE THEM
ON THE GRASS OR IN A DRIFT............

L94$$$$

its just a watch, not a warning

[Jimrin1967]

lab94, on Dec 15 2010, 09:54 AM, said:

Looks much better, is it enough though??

The PV splits nicely by 72 and 84 hours and heights start building in the western Atlantic. HUGE step back in the right direction. Not definite party time yet; but things have turned for the better

[lab94]

Jimrin1967, on Dec 15 2010, 10:04 AM, said:

The PV splits nicely by 72 and 84 hours and heights start building in the western Atlantic. HUGE step back in the right direction. Not definite party time yet; but things have turned for the better

Jim as shown looks close but just a very near miss? Although its close enough that in later frames in could be a hit. Guess thats all we can ask for. LOL

[rgwp96]

precip shield is also alot further west compared to that of the gfs at 96 hrs last night. in fact its a drastic shift to the west

[lab94]

rgwp96, on Dec 15 2010, 10:24 AM, said:

precip shield is also alot further west compared to that of the gfs at 96 hrs last night. in fact its a drastic shift to the west

Agree. Only thing its the nam out past 48hr. With that said, you can say that about any modle. GFS show be fun.

[lab94]

gfs 72 hrs. Not liking it so far

[lab94]

12 gfs 84



6z gfs at 90hr




12 nam at 84 hr

[lab94]

Baby steps. LOL Better get snow on this one

[lab94]

[NittanyLion]

The 12z GFS is a perfect phase scenario for New England. The ULL in Minnesota captures it and pulls it into the coast, dumping over 1.5" of QPF over the region. Very close for us, it just needs to happen a little bit earlier.

[Jabonie]

lab94, on Dec 15 2010, 11:17 AM, said:

At the risk of being chastised for looking at the other coast, is that really 8" of rain in Central California?

[NittanyLion]

Jabonie, on Dec 15 2010, 11:33 AM, said:

At the risk of being chastised for looking at the other coast, is that really 8" of rain in Central California?

Yes and like 16 feet of snow for the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

[Putnam]

lab94, on Dec 15 2010, 02:26 PM, said:

Out to 42 seems flat. we will see though.

BTW anyone see this...


National Weather Service


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-160900-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
400 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILL READINGS. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE COLD IF YOU WILL BE
WORKING OUTSIDE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SUICIDE WATCH STATEMENT...

SUICIDE WATCH ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE IMPENDING WATCH MAY BE NEED DO TO THE ANTISAPATION
OF A STORM FORMING OF THE NC COAST AND RUNNING OTS INSEAD OF RIDING UP
THE EAST COAST. PLEASE KEEP UPDATED WITH LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

IF THIS SITUATION CHANGES AND WE RECIEVE SNOW, PLEASE REMEMBER THAT RULER SHOULD BE PLACED
UP AND DOWN AND NOT ON A 45 DEGREE ANGLE.aLSO THE MEASURMENTS SHOULD BE
TAKEN ON A SNOW BOARD OR A HARD SURFACE IN A OPEN AREA REMEMBER NOT TO TAKE THEM
ON THE GRASS OR IN A DRIFT............

L94$$$$

I sense a warning may need to go up soon for places just to the N & W of NYC. Especially after last year.